Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

It'd most likely be to take any obligations of a new member with none of our opt outs. Euro, Shengen, no rebate, share of refugees*, involvement in defence force.
...

This is a honest assessment really, but I can't see it be on any flyer issued by the "Rejoin" campaign team.

Nobody will be any more enlightened in the next referendum. It will be the same old rhetoric.

Herzlos

I don't see any evidence of the EU being scared of us doing well. Or of us doing well; even those with the most reason to skew the figures show us doing various levels of badly.

If somehow we Do, the EU will gain due to proximity.

buglawton wrote: »

Which part of Pauciloquent's post:
"....Turkey has to follow many EU rules as part of their Customs Union, meaning that while they aren't a full member they must align their entire trade policy to that of the EU" was unclear?

None of it, I was just looking for a straight answer. I'll assume he regard a Turkey as in the EU which is fair enough.

ukcarper

kabayiri wrote: »

This is a honest assessment really, but I can't see it be on any flyer issued by the "Rejoin" campaign team.

Nobody will be any more enlightened in the next referendum. It will be the same old rhetoric.

That's the problem with not accepting the final deal, any vote is meaningless unless we know the alternative, I suspect that if losing rebate, joining euro etc was the the alternative then the vote to leave would be convincing, I voted remain but I would not vote for that.

kabayiri

ukcarper wrote: »

That's the problem with not accepting the final deal, any vote is meaningless unless we know the alternative, I suspect that if losing rebate, joining euro etc was the the alternative then the vote to leave would be convincing, I voted remain but I would not vote for that.

The whole process was completely flawed because we have one side of the campaign argument which argues for the position of an 'actor' in the process, without giving the 'actor' direct say.

I always thought that Mr Tusk and co should have had people on the podiums arguing the Remain case. After all, it is Mr Tusk and his cohorts who are best able to determine the likely future direction of this club. They are in a better position to provide definitive answers.

A capitulation would also trigger more radical politics within this country IMO. If centre ground mainstream don't appear to be listening, you gravitate to those who will listen.

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

After all, it is Mr Tusk and his cohorts who are best able to determine the likely future direction of this club.

Which returns full circle to Cameron being snubbed. The inner circle has a very fixed view. They'd prefer member states to be out rather than in. The clubs rules need to be adhered too.

vivatifosi

Well that's been an interesting night of local elections. Both the Cons and Lab have done OK, Lib Dems have had a fantastic night and UKIP has been wiped from the face of UK politics.

The London Tory bloodbath hasn't really happened and they have won some councils, Labour has won the most councils, which was expected. I'm not sure what this says about the state of UK politics and Brexit though, probably that we are due another hung parliament.

ETA...Sky saying based on overnight results, if reflected in a GM not just a hung parliament but an unholy mess. They forecast Conservatives would be biggest party with 305 seats, however even with the DUP MPs that would not bring enough MPs to give a majority. Which brings the Lib Dems back in to play.

Given that the Lib Dems are the party with the most opposing views on Brexit and its leader has already had his fingers burned by tuition fees, I doubt they will be in the mood to compromise on Brexit.

That should focus the minds of Tory rebels.

LHW99

Well that's been an interesting night of local elections. Both the Cons and Lab have done OK, Lib Dems have had a fantastic night and UKIP has been wiped from the face of UK politics.

The London Tory bloodbath hasn't really happened and they have won some councils, Labour has won the most councils, which was expected. I'm not sure what this says about the state of UK politics and Brexit though, probably that we are due another hung parliament.

ETA...Sky saying based on overnight results, if reflected in a GM not just a hung parliament but an unholy mess. They forecast Conservatives would be biggest party with 305 seats, however even with the DUP MPs that would not bring enough MPs to give a majority. Which brings the Lib Dems back in to play.

Given that the Lib Dems are the party with the most opposing views on Brexit and its leader has already had his fingers burned by tuition fees, I doubt they will be in the mood to compromise on Brexit.

That should focus the minds of Tory rebels.

May concentrate the minds of Labour rebels too, given that something more significant in the way of a swing might have beeen expected mid-term of a conservative government which has been in power (just) for the last ten years.

Thrugelmir

LHW99 wrote: »

May concentrate the minds of Labour rebels too, given that something more significant in the way of a swing might have beeen expected mid-term of a conservative government which has been in power (just) for the last ten years.

Huge push in our locality. Corbyn came personally too. Little impact. Momentum isn't gaining traction. Seems to be stuck in mud of it's own making in fact. Whatever your politics Corbyn doesn't appeal.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

The whole process was completely flawed because we have one side of the campaign argument which argues for the position of an 'actor' in the process, without giving the 'actor' direct say.

I always thought that Mr Tusk and co should have had people on the podiums arguing the Remain case. After all, it is Mr Tusk and his cohorts who are best able to determine the likely future direction of this club. They are in a better position to provide definitive answers.

A capitulation would also trigger more radical politics within this country IMO. If centre ground mainstream don't appear to be listening, you gravitate to those who will listen.

If Tusk had any involvement in the Remain campaign there would have been outrage at the EU interfering with local politics.

I'm also not sure it would have made any sense to talk about the future of remain, which was already an obvious "stick with the future of the EU" and would depend vastly on what we wanted out of it. The Leave campaign could have spent some time pointing out the real issues with the EU instead of going on about Turkey and Syria.

fatbeetle

Well it looks like the UK local elections showed no great change of mood on Brexit...