Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Meanwhile the Eurozone posted 2.5% in 2017 and, again, as per your article UK growth failed to keep pace.

And without Germany's contribution? The Eurozone is not a country it's a collective group. Which will hide a multitude of sins, i.e. Italy. To return to an earlier discussion. The Southern half of Italy is not enjoying the benefits of EU membership. GDP to the average European is meaningless. As the current strikes in France and German portray.

wunferall

ilovehouses wrote: »

UK growth was 1.8% in 2017 vs 1.9% in 2016. There are many descriptors to be used such as 'within a gnat's whisker', 'steady growth' or the lowest growth since 2012. It is correct though, per the link you posted, that UK growth has failed to keep pace with the Eurozone.

Times have moved on since 1.9% growth made the UK the fastest growing economy in the G7 and, now, the 1.8% of 2017 looks decidedly lacklustre by comparison.

Meanwhile the Eurozone posted 2.5% in 2017 and, again, as per your article UK growth failed to keep pace.

Now I'm sure some of this is down to over analysing small numbers and economic cycles not being in sync but you can't have it all ways. If you cite the UK being top of the G7 growth league to make some sort of point then you must see that the UK promptly falling down that league weakens your position somewhat?

You're trying to make big news where none exists was my point. You've already been told for example that there is much already in the pipeline which will inevitably reduce EU growth this year and beyond.

You also ignore completely how slow the EU was to recover from 2008 whilst the UK powered ahead, beating the EU and indeed any other G7 nation for years.This is from 2015 and remember, we led the G7 for growth in 2016 as well:

Britain's recovery from the Great Recession was faster than previously thought, according to official data that showed the UK grew more rapidly than any other G7 economy over the past two years.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11900934/UK-GDP-growth-stronger-previously-though-recovery-ONS.html


But that's how it goes, as in life and elsewhere you can't always be the best.

cogito

mayonnaise wrote: »

There's no smirks to be wiped as there's no smirking.
I'd love both to be performing well.
Sigh.

I think we can all agree on that.

wunferall

Herzlos wrote: »

Oh right, it's the remainers fault. Not weakened confidence or weaker currency.

It is.

You can't shout "fire" in a crowded place without starting a panic of people rushing for the exit, and this is what in effect remoaners keep doing with regards to Brexit.

As for the currency, it's stronger now than it was directly post-referendum, especially in the US$ so your "weaker currency" isn't even true; try checking facts maybe before posting your wild imaginations.

mayonnaise

Thrugelmir wrote: »

And without Germany's contribution? The Eurozone is not a country it's a collective group. Which will hide a multitude of sins, i.e. Italy. To return to an earlier discussion. The Southern half of Italy is not enjoying the benefits of EU membership. GDP to the average European is meaningless. As the current strikes in France and German portray.

Without Germany's contribution there would be the contributions of other member states like:

France (+2.5%)
Spain (+3.1%)
Sweden (+3.3%)
Finland (+3.0%)
Poland (+4.6%)
Portugal (+2.4%)
Netherlands (+3.2%)

(PS: This data is all available online, you know?)

As for Italy, 2017 GDP came in at +1.5%, up from +0.9% in 2016.

Or as wunferall would say:

wunferall wrote: »

That is STEADY growth

Your point on regional variations i.e. Southern Italy is a correct one. Occurs in most countries. North of England being another example.

cogito

mayonnaise wrote: »

Hungary and the Visegrad countries oppose refugee allocation alright. But it's a non-issue. No refugee's final destination is Hungary, Slovakia or Poland anyway. They're just pass-through countries.
Any allocated refugees would be back in Western Europe the day after they've been allocated.
You're getting too excited about this. It's not your hoped for disintegration of the EU.

It's not a non-issue at all. The V4’s issue is that the EU are insisting that they take an allocation of [STRIKE]young male sub-Saharan and Middle Eastern economic migrants[/STRIKE] refugees even though they don't want to live there. The V4 say that they alone and not Mrs Merkel or Brussels have the right to determine who lives in their countries. The Hungarian people have given Orban a majority which will enable him to amend the constitution to do exactly that.

The EU have already invoked Article 7 against Poland which required a 100% majority vote by all other members which Hungary and perhaps other V4 members would vote down. If they try to do the same against Hungary, Poland would vote it down.

But wait a minute. The EU are using the self amending provisions of the Lisbon Treaty to change the vote from 100% majority to a 4/5 majority.

Still think it's a non-issue?

wunferall

mayonnaise wrote: »

Hungary and the Visegrad countries oppose refugee allocation alright. But it's a non-issue. No refugee's final destination is Hungary, Slovakia or Poland anyway. They're just pass-through countries.
Any allocated refugees would be back in Western Europe the day after they've been allocated.
You're getting too excited about this. It's not your hoped for disintegration of the EU.

Show me where I said I'm hoping for disintegration of the EU - or is this just another of your incorrect rantings?

Nobody mentioned immigration either, only you. Why? Because you read it as one issue in a link I posted. The reality I suspect is that you know that Hungary is going to cause the EU a major headache.

Combine that headache with the one brewing in Italy, the one still simmering in Spain, Unresolved issues with Turkey and without even mentioning rising populism in the European Parliament as well as in individual member countries' parliaments and it's pretty clear that the EU has much of importance to face up to.

No, sorry to disappoint you but I'm not hoping for the EU to collapse. You don't seem to be able to tell the difference between reporting what's happening and wanting something to happen.

I am however glad that the UK will be out of it and look forward to eating my popcorn, at the same time laughing at posters like you spluttering your dissatisfaction as the EU yet again completely fail to solve their problems.

wunferall

mayonnaise wrote: »

As for Italy, 2017 GDP came in at +1.5%, up from +0.9% in 2016.

Or as wunferall would say:

As wunferall is saying, remind us what UK growth was for that year?


Have you heard the saying "one swallow ........."
The same goes for EU growth. Having better growth one year out of four (as I showed earlier) doesn't magically make the EU superior you know.

As for your list, France's ongoing strikes will have detrimental effects. Spain's growth is forecast to be around 1% lower than your given figure this year and could be worse if the Catalan situation worsens. And let's be honest, the rest are minnows in comparison to Germany, France, Italy & Spain.

wunferall

ilovehouses wrote: »

The only thing I'm smirking about is how the UK being at the top of the G7 was indicative of a soon to be glorious brexit but tumbling down the same league is indicative of nothing.

Don't know about you but I hope we see strong growth in both the UK & Eurozone.

I draw your attention to my post above; "one swallow does not ..." etc. Well, the EU being ahead on GDP for one year alone does not somehow make them superior especially when the UK has been ahead by so much over a number of years.

Your smirk is probably a scowl instead.

wunferall

Remember remainers rambling on about supposed superiority of EU rules & regulations?

Well the UK are the ones considering improvements in animal welfare post-Brexit, not the EU. Surely that can't be right; all the best welfare bits are EU we're constantly told; who'd have thunk it?

"UK considers live animal export ban post-Brexit"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43706978