Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

wunferall

mayonnaise wrote: »

Brexiteers often used to tell us about the EU's dwindling importance to UK trade.

Reality check :

Another day, another Leave myth exposed.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-eu-export-market-faster-growth-uk-exports-asia-us-referendum-company-directors-a8296856.html

The REAL reality check with this from November is from Fullfact:
Trade with the EU matters a lot, but slightly less than it used to https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

Another REAL reality check from today: The value of British exports will expand at the fastest pace since 2011 during the course of this year

The US is the top prospect for future British export growth targeted by 19 per cent of British exporters looking to grow, according to a survey of 350 firms.

http://www.cityam.com/283656/british-exports-grow-fastest-pace-since-2011-according-hsbc

mayonnaise

wunferall wrote: »

Good for them but the UK is still leaving. Maybe someone should ask them how they feel about Orban wanting to reform the EU, and see if they still feel the same.

Yes most Hungarians are also pro EU.
https://thehungaryjournal.wordpress.com/2018/02/16/most-hungarians-pro-eu-poll/

mayonnaise

wunferall wrote: »

Another REAL reality check from today: The value of British exports will expand at the fastest pace since 2011 during the course of this year
http://www.cityam.com/283656/british-exports-grow-fastest-pace-since-2011-according-hsbc

British exporters have been boosted by a weaker pound at the same time that the economies of key trading partners have accelerated

That's good news.
We're exporting more because our key trading partners' economies are booming.

even as the UK economy has failed to keep pace.

Oops.

wunferall

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yes most Hungarians are also pro EU.
https://thehungaryjournal.wordpress.com/2018/02/16/most-hungarians-pro-eu-poll/

Hah yes BUT:

A key German minister says the EU must drop its "arrogance and condescension" towards Hungary,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43697596

Regional analysts said that EU leaders had little choice but to work with Mr Orban, even though his increasingly autocratic approach to government was undermining attempts to reunite the EU club after Brexit.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/09/orban-use-landslide-victory-move-against-foreign-ngos/
And now from there too the biggie:

“This result is a big negative for Macron and Merkel’s desire to reform Europe and heal tensions between the West and East Europeans,” he said. “Alongside Poland and Italy, there are now three very significant anti-establishment players at the EU’s top table.”

wunferall

mayonnaise wrote: »

That's good news.
We're exporting more because our key trading partners' economies are booming.

Oops.

No "oops" at all. Was 2017 within a gnat's whisker of being the same GDP growth as 2016 or not? That is STEADY growth. In 2016 at very nearly the same growth rate the UK was the fastest-growing economy in the G7.

Of course, that was BEFORE remainer negativity and propaganda started to take their toll.

Herzlos

Oh right, it's the remainers fault. Not weakened confidence or weaker currency.

cogito

ilovehouses wrote: »

UK growth was 1.8% in 2017 vs 1.9% in 2016. There are many descriptors to be used such as 'within a gnat's whisker', 'steady growth' or the lowest growth since 2012. It is correct though, per the link you posted, that UK growth has failed to keep pace with the Eurozone.

Times have moved on since 1.9% growth made the UK the fastest growing economy in the G7 and, now, the 1.8% of 2017 looks decidedly lacklustre by comparison.

Meanwhile the Eurozone posted 2.5% in 2017 and, again, as per your article UK growth failed to keep pace.

Now I'm sure some of this is down to over analysing small numbers and economic cycles not being in sync but you can't have it all ways. If you cite the UK being top of the G7 growth league to make some sort of point then you must see that the UK promptly falling down that league weakens your position somewhat?

Lets see how Eurozone growth is doing by the end of the year shall we? There's a lot of negative stuff in the pipeline which could wipe the smirks from the faces of remoaners. As you say, times have moved on as German industrial output figures for February suggest.

mayonnaise

wunferall wrote: »

Hah yes BUT:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43697596


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/09/orban-use-landslide-victory-move-against-foreign-ngos/
And now from there too the biggie:

Hungary and the Visegrad countries oppose refugee allocation alright. But it's a non-issue. No refugee's final destination is Hungary, Slovakia or Poland anyway. They're just pass-through countries.
Any allocated refugees would be back in Western Europe the day after they've been allocated.
You're getting too excited about this. It's not your hoped for disintegration of the EU.

Filo25

cogito wrote: »

Lets see how Eurozone growth is doing by the end of the year shall we? There's a lot of negative stuff in the pipeline which could wipe the smirks from the faces of remoaners. As you say, times have moved on as German industrial output figures for February suggest.

Equally let's see how the UK fares if EU growth slows, stronger worldwide growth has been the one thing propping the UK economy up

mayonnaise

cogito wrote: »

Lets see how Eurozone growth is doing by the end of the year shall we? There's a lot of negative stuff in the pipeline which could wipe the smirks from the faces of remoaners. As you say, times have moved on as German industrial output figures for February suggest.

There's no smirks to be wiped as there's no smirking.
I'd love both to be performing well.
Sigh.