Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

wunferall

Herzlos wrote: »

Is there anything in the blog you think is incorrect or don't agree with? Or are you trying to shoot down the credibility because it's showing the legal position regarding unrolling Brexit?

Pretty much all of it is wrong; read it again. Then read what follows.

Herzlos wrote: »

Did Vote Leave break the rules by spending more money than allowed via a 3rd party? Did that spend impact the vote? Enough to invalidate the result?

Not in comparison to the remain campaign's government-funded £9 million leaflet spend, no. Just because you don't want to acknowledge that doesn't mean it didn't happen because it did. The government sent a leaflet to every UK household urging them to vote remain. Should the government not have been impartial?

Herzlos wrote: »

Did Remain break any rules, or just do stuff you didn't like?

In comparison to the posted link they certainly have - and far worse than Team Leave too. You see, by the same token the Government are a 3rd party spending £9 million on the leaflets which on it's own blows the allowable budget out of the water.

In essence then the opinion piece was yet another grumble by a disaffected remainer desperately trying to justify why they think the referendum result is unfair. It isn't unfair but if you want fairness and if you really do want to try that argument, by comparison the gross overspend of team remain probably relates to another few percent of voters who would have voted leave instead of stay.

wunferall

Thrugelmir wrote: »

New car sales appear to have dropped way. Not just in the UK either.

The Wall Street Journal had a report on the slowdown of the economy across the EU a few days ago. "it's disappointing for a region that is still healing from the economic scars of its long financial crisis, including still-high unemployment and debts in some countries." they said.

Here in the UK our largest retailer Tesco has just posted a 28% rise in annual profits. In France their equivalent Carrefour has just posted warnings about slowing growth, continued weakness and a very cautious 2018 forecast.

Mayonnaise, Herzlos and ilovehouses seem to take posting of such facts personally and often mistakenly see them as being a desire for EU disintegration or some such daftness but of course, it's not. What it IS however is evidence that the EU is not the panacea that they try to make us believe.

Brexit is bad, they tell us. An impending disaster, they tell us. Well we have now had various people telling us this for two years and you know what? Planet Earth is still spinning on it's somewhat wobbly axis and nothing here in Britain has changed very much. Nor is it likely to if only logic, sensibility and reason allowed some people to accept that rather than continually telling us we're doomed as a result of voting to leave the EU.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-slowing-economy-poses-challenge-for-ecb-1523024390

Thrugelmir

wunferall wrote: »

Here in the UK our largest retailer Tesco has just posted a 28% rise in annual profits.

Has undergone a fundamental reorganisation over the past few years. Also is increasing profits from a very low base point. Considering the annual turnover. Now needs to deliver returns on it's acquistion of Booker. Food retailing is a highly competitive environment. With the likes of Amazon looking to get a foothold (though only in the US as yet).

kabayiri

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Has undergone a fundamental reorganisation over the past few years. Also is increasing profits from a very low base point. Considering the annual turnover. Now needs to deliver returns on it's acquistion of Booker. Food retailing is a highly competitive environment. With the likes of Amazon looking to get a foothold (though only in the US as yet).

Tesco will have someone new at the helm to look after the UK business pretty soon.

You're right. There will be a reassessment of what the core service provision is, because of the nature of the new management team.

This isn't just Tesco. We are seeing a lot of consolidation in the retail space.

Brexit is definitely not like some magic bullet answer, but I do think it will force many UK businesses to re-evaluate their approach and priorities.

Where I found the Remain argument disingenuous is the idea that staying in the EU is a way of avoiding change. There is just no way we can avoid change. The economic power balance is shifting.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

Almost any other form.

I'm none the wiser.

Are you saying it would retreat from being a complete common currency to some kind of currency / exchange control?

Do you think they will move away from the fiscal compact, and allow countries to effectively run a permanent deficit? An EU state could then effectively become like a state in the USA.

kabayiri

wunferall wrote: »

...
Brexit is bad, they tell us. An impending disaster, they tell us. Well we have now had various people telling us this for two years and you know what? Planet Earth is still spinning on it's somewhat wobbly axis and nothing here in Britain has changed very much. Nor is it likely to if only logic, sensibility and reason allowed some people to accept that rather than continually telling us we're doomed as a result of voting to leave the EU.
...

The psyche has changed though, I would argue.

Up until Brexit there was a feeling that you could manage the public vote using a centralised approach. Osborne would preach his wise words using 10 year charts and graphs, and we were all supposed to fall in line, and acknowledge how well things must be going.

But it didn't feel like that on the ground.

Brexit showed that the people still had a voice, and I have no doubt played a part in the election of Trump.

It's shaken the faith of the people in Westminster and Washington.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

I'm none the wiser.

Are you saying it would retreat from being a complete common currency to some kind of currency / exchange control?

Do you think they will move away from the fiscal compact, and allow countries to effectively run a permanent deficit? An EU state could then effectively become like a state in the USA.

I'm saying that a half-assed fiscal union where members are following different rules regarding deficits etc just doesn't work since economies have less levers to adjust it's currency/economy.
We'd either need to go for full fiscal union as a united states in a superstate, or drop back down to having a 2nd common currency for trading. I.e. it becomes normal in the .uk to accept gbp and euros, either directly or more likely at an exchange rate at the time of transaction. Lots of countries are already dual currency anyway without any real hassle.

Herzlos

wunferall wrote: »

Pretty much all of it is wrong; read it again. Then read what follows.

Not in comparison to the remain campaign's government-funded £9 million leaflet spend, no. Just because you don't want to acknowledge that doesn't mean it didn't happen because it did. The government sent a leaflet to every UK household urging them to vote remain. Should the government not have been impartial?

In comparison to the posted link they certainly have - and far worse than Team Leave too. You see, by the same token the Government are a 3rd party spending £9 million on the leaflets which on it's own blows the allowable budget out of the water.

In essence then the opinion piece was yet another grumble by a disaffected remainer desperately trying to justify why they think the referendum result is unfair. It isn't unfair but if you want fairness and if you really do want to try that argument, by comparison the gross overspend of team remain probably relates to another few percent of voters who would have voted leave instead of stay.

The government wasn't working for leave or being used to hide spend from a campaign group. It was fully transparent and not illegal. It provided what it decided was the best approach though I agree it should have been impartial and included some reality-checked reasons for leaving. That'd have been a more convincing argument to stay than the leaflet they sent.

That you don't like it doesn't make it illegal, and doesn't make the vote leave / Cambridge stuff legal.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm saying that a half-assed fiscal union where members are following different rules regarding deficits etc just doesn't work since economies have less levers to adjust it's currency/economy.
We'd either need to go for full fiscal union as a united states in a superstate, or drop back down to having a 2nd common currency for trading. I.e. it becomes normal in the .uk to accept gbp and euros, either directly or more likely at an exchange rate at the time of transaction. Lots of countries are already dual currency anyway without any real hassle.

There are positive arguments to be made for wider and deeper integration I'm sure. The 5 presidents report makes this case.

The customs union is heavily biased towards goods. We might even gain if they widen the net to services.

But, it would mean change and a shift in control. There would be resistance from some of the outer states like the UK.

I think we might be in a 'half-assed situation' for a while.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
That you don't like it doesn't make it illegal, and doesn't make the vote leave / Cambridge stuff legal.

The vast majority of complaints I have heard about the Leave campaign were centred around big letters and numbers on a bus.

I don't know anyone who changed their outlook because of what they saw on social media, or how they were targetted.

I'm sure the data analytics advocates would like to think they can have a much greater influence than they really have. If they were that good we would all be drinking Brand X of cola by now.