Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Chapuys

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

As the cost of leaving will be in the region of £400 billion by 2030 then paying a mere 100bn to stay would be well worth it

But there will be no cost to staying in

Just rescind article 50 and learn some humility...

How do you know the cost will be £400 billion? Have you visited 2030 and asked somebody? This is the problem with a lot of Brexit on both sides of the debate. People on either side of the debate make up figures and peddle them as truth. No one knows the cost for 2030 because Brexit could go very badly or very well, or neither, by 2030.

Filo25

westernpromise wrote: »

That's easily got round - it just won't be characterised as a penalty. It'll be characterised as a cancellation fee. There's no lawful basis for a Brexit fee but they want one anyway, so the same will apply to any exit-from-Brexit fee.

So no penalty for reversing Brexit, just as promised, but, well, it's caused a lot of hassle - eg MIFID 3 is now going to be needed much sooner than MIFID 2 because of Brexit, MIFID 2 having been largely about bu993ring up the UK financial industry anyway. So if we want back in, clearly the admin fee starts at the same X billion as the exit fee.

After all, what's the alternative? We either pay X billion and we leave, which we don't want to do, or we pay X billion and stay, which we do want to do. Either way we're out the money, so we should pay up because we'll have to regardless and this way we get to stay.

So the fee to stay now is going to be at least as much as the fee to leave, and probably more when you factor in things like the scrapped rebate, higher contributions, forced Euro entry, and so on that will all follow.

I didn't actually vote in the referendum because I thought the debate was so poor, but I wonder how keen Remainers and apostate Leavers would remain on Remaining if the bill were, say, 100 billion.

If Article 50 can be revoked at any time then I don't see how the EU would have any basis to demand a fee, as you say there is no legal basis within our current EU deal to do so.

Equally they can't "demand" a fee on exit, they can request one as a precondition to other discussions taking place (discussions we clearly want to take place), in short it is a negotiation, hardly surprising as Article 50 says very little about our relationship post exit so everything needs to be negotiated.

Still everyone told me had the EU over a barrel in negotiations so I'm sure we won't be paying it.:p

Filo25

mailmannz wrote: »

I think people are deluding themselves if they think Brexit will be cancelled.

Just as equally people are deluding themselves if they think a deal HAS to be struck to allow BREXIT to take place.

Think of it this way, IF that became Government policy what would be the incentive for a vindictive EU to negotiate a deal when they know all they have to do is sit back and allow talks to collapse and keep that would then keep the UK in the EU.

Its a bit like the Palestinian Approach to negotiations with Israel. Why settle for peace when all they have to do is sit on their hands, continue to kill Jews and Europe will continue to feed them money for doing nothing.

Finally isn't it funny how suddenly the popular vote isn't that important. I wage you your left bollock these same people aren't so reticent about the popular vote when it comes to the American Presidential elections though :rotfl:

Get it through your heads. We have voted to leave. All the politicians agitating to stay in the EU (and essentially GIVE sovereignty to the un-elected dictators in Brussels) need to be lined up against a wall and given a jolly good telling off!

Regards

Mailman

I don't think it will be cancelled, but I think you are deluding yourself if you think it can't be.

There are pretty straightforward circumstances in which is is cancelled, polling indicates the Brexit option become ever less popular, if we started to see polling saying that the split of Remain:Leave voters was about 60:40 and it would be a very brave government that pushed ahead with it without asking the people for their opinion second time around, in fact there would then be a lot of public pressure to do exactly that.

If I was a Brexit supporter in government I would be more concerned with delivering a deal which is acceptable to the majority of the British people than I would with the endless sniping at unpatriotic Remoaners and the evil EU not giving us everything we wanted.

Its amazing to me how the narrative has changed from pre referendum when we were repeatedly told we had the EU over a barrel and they would give us everything we could possibly want, to now where some are proclaiming No Deal as some kind of epic victory (that may play well with the die-hards, but it won't with a lot of people who just care about supporting their families as best they can)

I have said it repeatedly, the Brexit campaign won, its supporters in key roles in government need to get on with delivering on the claims made during the campaign and stop blaming everyone else for their failure to do so.

Don't blame those of us who thought this would be difficult to deliver if it proves to be difficult to deliver.

mrginge

Filo25 wrote: »

I have said it repeatedly, the Brexit campaign won, its supporters in key roles in government need to get on with delivering on the claims made during the campaign and stop blaming everyone else for their failure to do so.

Don't blame those of us who thought this would be difficult to deliver if it proves to be difficult to deliver.

It’s funny how sometimes the remainers are very keen to distance themselves from all this and demand that the Brexit supporters just get on with it.

And then two minutes later they are demanding full parliamentary scrutiny so everyone can have their say.

I wish they’d make their mind up.

Filo25

mrginge wrote: »

It’s funny how sometimes the remainers are very keen to distance themselves from all this and demand that the Brexit supporters just get on with it.

And then two minutes later they are demanding full parliamentary scrutiny so everyone can have their say.

I wish they’d make their mind up.

A lot of politicians, media and indeed posters on here said that this would be straightforward, a lot of us thought it wouldn't be.

It's hardly up to me or people who think this is a fool's errand to deliver on promises we thought were undeliverable all along.

I would actually rather May stepped down and allow an accepted Brexiter to lead the party at this time, basically because I think the whole process will prove to be an expensive mistake but I can already see the likes of Johnson spinning away and making out that Brexit would have been a success if only a true believer like him was in charge.

I think most of us on the Remain side would be happy if the government was capable of delivering on what the Leave campaign promised, we just think they can't, and personally I would rather see the people who made those statements held accountable on delivering them.

With regards to parliamentary scrutiny, we are a parliamentary democracy the last time I checked and this is the biggest peacetime issue I can recall us facing so of course parliament should have a strong role in reviewing the process and holding the government to account if necessary.

It seems bizarre to suggest on the one hand we should take back control and on the other that our democratically elected representatives should have only a limited role in scrutinising what is happening.

mrginge

Filo25 wrote: »

A lot of politicians, media and indeed posters on here said that this would be straightforward, a lot of us thought it wouldn't be.

It's hardly up to me or people who think this is a fool's errand to deliver on promises we thought were undeliverable all along.

I would actually rather May stepped down and allow an accepted Brexiter to lead the party at this time, basically because I think the whole process will prove to be an expensive mistake but I can already see the likes of Johnson spinning away and making out that Brexit would have been a success if only a true believer like him was in charge.

I think most of us on the Remain side would be happy if the government was capable of delivering on what the Leave campaign promised, we just think they can't, and personally I would rather see the people who made those statements held accountable on delivering them.

With regards to parliamentary scrutiny, we are a parliamentary democracy the last time I checked and this is the biggest peacetime issue I can recall us facing so of course parliament should have a strong role in reviewing the process and holding the government to account if necessary.

It seems bizarre to suggest on the one hand we should take back control and on the other that our democratically elected representatives should have only a limited role in scrutinising what is happening.

Point proven.
Just so we’re clear though....

If it all goes horribly wrong in five years time and you are sat smugly saying I told you so. Who will you blame?

The Brexit campaign for not delivering what they promised, or parliament as a whole for not reviewing the process and holding the govt to account?

One suspects that it’ll be the former, despite the latter.

Thrugelmir

mrginge wrote: »

If it all goes horribly wrong in five years time and you are sat smugly saying I told you so. Who will you blame?

Life will simply carry on as it always does.

Filo25

mrginge wrote: »

Point proven.
Just so we’re clear though....

If it all goes horribly wrong in five years time and you are sat smugly saying I told you so. Who will you blame?

The Brexit campaign for not delivering what they promised, or parliament as a whole for not reviewing the process and holding the govt to account?

One suspects that it’ll be the former, despite the latter.

For me there will be plenty of blame to go around on this one IF it does prove to be an expensive mistake.

Believe it or not I won't be sitting here smugly if it does go wrong, what would be the point in rejoicing in being poorer than I otherwise would have been, a feeling of misplaced smugness won't make me or the country any better off, it would just be a bit depressing.

I would rather the whole thing is a success, I just don't think that is a likely outcome at present and I very much hope to be proven wrong.

If it doesn't go well it won't be me you have to worry about anyway, it will be those who will feel they were hoodwinked throughout the whole process.

If you are a committed Brexit supporter I don't why its an issue anyway as the whole thing will surely be a glorious success.

Some supposedly committed Brexit supporters seem more concerned with playing the blame game and finger pointing than they do with actually making the thing work at present.

Herzlos

mrginge wrote: »

The Brexit campaign for not delivering what they promised, or parliament as a whole for not reviewing the process and holding the govt to account?

Anyone who promised anything regarding Brexit ran away the instant they won. They should certainly be held to account for the lies.

It's the government that needs to be held to account; for failing to deliver what the public want, and all the damage done.

I'm fairly confident that a good government could deliver a Brexit that satisfied people, whilst not screwing us over entirely. The Tories aren't that government (neither are Labour).

But since almost none of the problems claimed to be solved by Brexit are actually caused by the EU, I fully expect that 2019 to be a year with a lot of blame going about.

mrginge

Filo25 wrote: »

For me there will be plenty of blame to go around on this one IF it does prove to be an expensive mistake.

Believe it or not I won't be sitting here smugly if it does go wrong, what would be the point in rejoicing in being poorer than I otherwise would have been, a feeling of misplaced smugness won't make me or the country any better off, it would just be a bit depressing.

A sensible response. I therefore apologise for bracketing you with the resident moaners on this thread who take the complete opposite view.

I would rather the whole thing is a success, I just don't think that is a likely outcome at present and I very much hope to be proven wrong.

If it doesn't go well it won't be me you have to worry about anyway, it will be those who will feel they were hoodwinked throughout the whole process.

I don’t have to worry about anything. As a thick boomer racist who’ll be dead before the outcome is delivered I can happily fritter away the kids inheritance and then get Corbyn’s great plan to pay for my twilight years.

Apparently.

If you are a committed Brexit supporter I don't why its an issue anyway as the whole thing will surely be a glorious success.

It’s not an issue for me at all. I’m absolutely certain that there will be a balance between parliamentary scrutiny and the need for the govt to have as free a hand as possible during negotiations.

And since nothing will become clear about whether it was worth it or not for at least ten years I don’t know why some people feel the need to continually try and second guess an outcome.

Some supposedly committed Brexit supporters seem more concerned with playing the blame game and finger pointing than they do with actually making the thing work at present.

You could replace Brexit with remain in that sentence and it would be just as true.