Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Carl31

yay, this argument again, it never gets boring

Herzlos

setmefree2 wrote: »

http://civilserviceworld.com/articles/news/whitehall-trade-chief-crawford-falconer-pledges-uk-us-trade-deal-will-not-be-%E2%80%98cooked

Just imagine what we could do if we had those 734 new hires doing something useful.

michaels

Well I guess the EU shopping list would start with:
End of UK budget rebate
End of all UK opt outs
UK to join Schengen
UK to join the Euro

And no doubt go on from there and Jezza would say 'Yes we can'

Filo25

michaels wrote: »

Well I guess the EU shopping list would start with:
End of UK budget rebate
End of all UK opt outs
UK to join Schengen
UK to join the Euro

And no doubt go on from there and Jezza would say 'Yes we can'

I think if we were ever to rejoin the EU after officially leaving that probably wouldn't be far from the truth in terms of what the EU would for if we ever wanted to rejoin, my response to the original query was based on a reversal of Article 50 before leaving.

Although I don't see Corbyn wanting to rejoin the EU even if he became PM anyway, he's long standing Eurosceptic, he just has to sound a bit more Europhile now to keep most of his supporters in the Labour membership happy.

Filo25

kabayiri wrote: »

Ok, a Q for those who believe we should pay handsomely for the privilege of leaving this club :

- should we be on the hook for supporting bad debts made by the European Investment Bank, and if so, for how long?

If the EU sees a growth of trade in this period, then, by the same token, shouldn't we share some of that as a dividend too?

I don't think we should be paying to leave the club, I don't think we should be leaving at all !

Thrugelmir

vivatifosi wrote: »

more to do with the falling pound,

Never been any different. People with in demand skills will opt to work where they can maximise their earnings.

kabayiri

For me, it's a question of "is the EU heading towards a 2 speed club", and if it is, which speed zone would we be in?

I think there are clear conflicts right now between those who see the solution to current troubles as much tighter integration, and those who worry about control from the centre.
A 2 speed arrangement would be classic EU fudge, an option to please everyone (in theory).

Except...being outside the Euro/Schengen etc, we would never qualify for the inner circle would we.

The Brexit vote has already signalled our attitude towards matters EU. We don't trust the project; maybe we never ever did.

kabayiri

michaels wrote: »

Well I guess the EU shopping list would start with:
End of UK budget rebate
End of all UK opt outs
UK to join Schengen
UK to join the Euro

And no doubt go on from there and Jezza would say 'Yes we can'

If you're an EU politician, these opportunities don't come along every day. It would be a vote winner to quash a troublesome member.

westernpromise

Herzlos wrote: »

EU have said we can cancel the exit without penalty, so I don't believe there will be a bill. If there is, it'll be for the wasted admin across the EU, call it £2bn. So a fraction of the divorce bill, and will be trivial compared to the economic gains.

That's easily got round - it just won't be characterised as a penalty. It'll be characterised as a cancellation fee. There's no lawful basis for a Brexit fee but they want one anyway, so the same will apply to any exit-from-Brexit fee.

So no penalty for reversing Brexit, just as promised, but, well, it's caused a lot of hassle - eg MIFID 3 is now going to be needed much sooner than MIFID 2 because of Brexit, MIFID 2 having been largely about bu993ring up the UK financial industry anyway. So if we want back in, clearly the admin fee starts at the same X billion as the exit fee.

After all, what's the alternative? We either pay X billion and we leave, which we don't want to do, or we pay X billion and stay, which we do want to do. Either way we're out the money, so we should pay up because we'll have to regardless and this way we get to stay.

So the fee to stay now is going to be at least as much as the fee to leave, and probably more when you factor in things like the scrapped rebate, higher contributions, forced Euro entry, and so on that will all follow.

I didn't actually vote in the referendum because I thought the debate was so poor, but I wonder how keen Remainers and apostate Leavers would remain on Remaining if the bill were, say, 100 billion.

System

Filo25 wrote: »

a second referendum to overturn the first one.

I might not like the result of the first referendum but it can't just be ignored

You might not like the result of a second one either. Could that just be ignored - would you then want a third?