Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

Matt_L wrote: »

Has he, could you produce the transcript showing where he said this...

So now you have watched the video? What next?

Herzlos

Matt_L wrote: »

If the same experts are massively out every time they open their mouths then yes, ignore them.

Is it the same experts?

gfplux

vivatifosi wrote: »

Here's a link to the UK bases in Cyprus. Personally I didn't realise they were that big: 98 sq miles.
Army:
http://www.army.mod.uk/operations-deployments/22728.aspx
Air Force:
http://www.forces.net/news/raf/10-things-you-need-know-about-raf-akrotiri

There was also an issue a while back with asylum seekers washing ashore at Akrotiri, so closing the base would stop that, but given that the bases are used to cover middle eastern operations, unlikely that this is something that the forces will seek to do.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/02/cyprus-refugees-uk-airbase

Thanks for that.
Who would have thought 16 months ago during the Brexit campaign we would now be discussing those bases and linking it to Brexit.
As you say the location of these bases are important. That's why I suggested that this could help with trade negotiations with the USA.
On the other hand they probably are a huge cost to Britain. If money were needed by the Government for the NHS or UK border guards any possibility has both up and down sides.
I suspect (actually hope) someone somewhere in Whitehall is evaluating the possibilities.

Herzlos

What's the deal with the bases currently, do we lease them from Cyprus via some agreement or do we 'own' them? Does this framework collapse after we leave the EU? Are we going to be compelled to hand them back or pay more money for their use?

cogito

gfplux wrote: »

Britain leaves the EU at the end of March 2019. The devaluation of the pound (directly related to the Brexit result) and the subsequent 16 months (and counting) of uncertainty have had a negative impact on Britains economy.

You never give up do you? Do you consider the following things that have happened since the referendum to be negative?


Manufacturing

• British manufacturing continues to strengthen: the sector grew at a faster rate in July than EU countries including France, Spain and Ireland. British factories are on a hiring spree as they scramble to keep up with a booming global order book. The IHS Markit purchasing managers’ index rose to 55.1 in July, from 54.2 in June. Manufacturing number-crunchers said they saw a “significant boost” in activity.
• Domestic orders were up +19%, with export orders growth remaining strong at +17%.
• Alongside robust expectations for demand, firms accumulated raw materials at the fastest pace in forty years and stocks of work-in-progress expanded at a record rate. Strong confidence levels saw stock building of raw materials (+20%) which was the strongest since April 1977 (+22%), whilst stocks of work-in-progress rose (+16%).
• A third of manufacturers said headcount was increasing at the fastest rate for three years and hiring intentions for the coming quarter also improved.
• Nissan has said it will increase output from its Sunderland plant by 20% to 600,000 units per year, and raise the quantity of parts sourced in the UK from 40% to 80%.
• We have the highest manufacturing demand since August '88
• Boeing is opening its first construction plant in Yorkshire, the only one in Europe.
• British factory production is at a 22-year high,
• Nissan to increase production by a fifth and double its UK parts business.
• Manufacturing orders are at their highest level since August 1988

Trade / Exports / Investment

• Export optimism is strong, 43% of firms said the volume of output over the past three months was up – the highest since January 1995.
• Expectations for growth in export orders improved to a four-decade high.
• Aston Martin announced a trade and investment deal with Japan worth £500 million. At home, the five-year package will benefit Aston Martin’s factories in St Athan, Wales and Gaydon, Warwickshire. Exports from the plants will be worth £400 million. The UK beat more than 20 other countries to secure the deal…
• Exports are up 10%
• London retains financial services crown with the City extending its lead over New York, Hong Kong and Singapore in international rankings.
• British exports up 11.4% since Brexit vote
• We're the world #5 economy and the EU27's #1 global export destination. We've the world’s #1 financial centre and the world’s #8 manufacturing nation.
• Reports stated almost 100,000 jobs will be created in the food and drink sector over the next five years as firms seek to cash in on the more competitive exchange rate to boost exports. According to research published today in the The Food and Drink Report 2017, from Lloyds Commercial Banking. It found that the proportion of manufacturers investing to secure new international customers has risen from 55% to 69% over the past year
• The UK has the highest level of foreign direct investment in Europe.
• We recently had our first budget surplus in 15 years
• The latest survey from the Robert Walters City Jobs Index, for July, reported that hiring in financial services was up 13 percent year-on-year.
• Britain grew faster in the six months after the referendum than in the six months before.
• Dutch firm TMF is to move its HQ from Amsterdam to London after £1bn float on Stock Exchange
• Exports were up 10 percent year-on-year in May, helped by the long-overdue correction of the exchange rate.
• Britain reaps benefits of a cheaper pound as tourist numbers hit record 23.1m and spending surges by £872m. Tourism is set for ‘rapid growth’ over the next eight years
• U.K. Still Dealmakers’ Favourite Despite Brexit - Business executives from around the world ranked Britain third behind the United States and China as the top investment destination according to EY survey
• London's skyscrapers command premium rents and still the most expensive in Europe
• UK mid-market fundraising hits record high

Banking / Finance

• Deutsche Bank yesterday signed a 25-year commitment to a new London headquarters. The bank has signed up for a minimum of 469,000 sq ft of office space and has taken an option allowing it to expand further at a later date. About 5,000 employees will move to the new office when work is completed in 2023. That’s the same Deutsche Bank that just last month stoked up media headlines with its warning that it would downsize its London operation.
• We are seeing a 17% rise in City firms recruitment.
• We were told that the FTSE 100 index of leading companies’ share prices would collapse; in fact, British stocks performed strongly after the Brexit vote.
• London is still Europe’s fintech hub
• Finance graduates stick with Britain - UK’s financial services sector is still top destination for new entrants
• London’s Executive MBA market grows

Employment and Housing

• Unemployment rate falls to 4.4%, the lowest since 1975. The number of people in work is at an all-time high. Unemployment fell by 57,000 to 1.48 million in the three months to June.
• Unemployment fell again, as every month since the referendum vote, to 1.49 million (from 1.67 million in June of last year)
• Youth unemployment in EU countries is currently - Greece 43.3%, Spain 38.7%, Italy 35.1%, Cyprus 26.3%, Croatia 26.1%, France 23%, UK 11.9%
• UK employers raise pay as Brexit skills shortage bites
• The UK is still the most attractive European country for employers and staff according to a report by Colliers International.
• The Chinese are pumping billions into London real estate market
• Pension funds are still seeking commercial real estate

Business and Retail

• 35% of businesses reported an increase in total orders.
• UK retail sales show biggest jump in over three years according to BDO
• Retail sales, official figures show, are up 2.9 percent on this time last year.
• Amazon to create 1,200 permanent jobs in Britain with new fulfilment centre in Bolton
• Telefonica “investing disproportionately” in O2 despite Brexit
• 4 in 5 mid-market firms are predicting business growth

tracey3596

gfplux wrote: »

So now you have watched the video? What next?

"What next" is this bit:

But he told peers: “In the infamous, or famous, words of the European Union nothing is agreed until everything is agreed."

Oh, and the exact wording of Davis according to the link above:

“The withdrawal agreement on balance will probably favour the union in terms of the things like money and so on. “Whereas the future relationship will favour both sides and will be important to both of us.”

Now I know that some remainers are ecstatic about what they think they know but really? You're just clutching at more straws. The key words there are "on balance" and "probably".
I almost hate to tell you this but your crowing is premature since no deal has yet been reached. If or when a deal is reached and if in that case the UK's position is poor, then will be your time because just now all you're doing is looking desperate to grasp every small opportunity to say "I told you so".
Just as Davis says above, "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed."

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

What's the deal with the bases currently, do we lease them from Cyprus via some agreement or do we 'own' them? Does this framework collapse after we leave the EU? Are we going to be compelled to hand them back or pay more money for their use?

I believe they are "permanent" under a treaty signed in 1960.
There are according to wikepedia 3500 British Military personal stationed there.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Forces_Cyprus

Like all treaty's, contracts and agreements they are open to interpretation and can be challenged. Witness the shortcomings and misunderstandings of the contracts and agreements between Britain and the EU to see that anything and everything can change.
While "will of the people" is overused at the moment many in Britain (perhaps Brexiters) would welcome the British Government reducing costs in a far away land that is part of the EU.

Carl31

cogito wrote: »

You never give up do you? Do you consider the following things that have happened since the referendum to be negative?


Manufacturing

• British manufacturing continues to strengthen: the sector grew at a faster rate in July than EU countries including France, Spain and Ireland. British factories are on a hiring spree as they scramble to keep up with a booming global order book. The IHS Markit purchasing managers’ index rose to 55.1 in July, from 54.2 in June. Manufacturing number-crunchers said they saw a “significant boost” in activity.
• Domestic orders were up +19%, with export orders growth remaining strong at +17%.
• Alongside robust expectations for demand, firms accumulated raw materials at the fastest pace in forty years and stocks of work-in-progress expanded at a record rate. Strong confidence levels saw stock building of raw materials (+20%) which was the strongest since April 1977 (+22%), whilst stocks of work-in-progress rose (+16%).
• A third of manufacturers said headcount was increasing at the fastest rate for three years and hiring intentions for the coming quarter also improved.
• Nissan has said it will increase output from its Sunderland plant by 20% to 600,000 units per year, and raise the quantity of parts sourced in the UK from 40% to 80%.
• We have the highest manufacturing demand since August '88
• Boeing is opening its first construction plant in Yorkshire, the only one in Europe.
• British factory production is at a 22-year high,
• Nissan to increase production by a fifth and double its UK parts business.
• Manufacturing orders are at their highest level since August 1988

Trade / Exports / Investment

• Export optimism is strong, 43% of firms said the volume of output over the past three months was up – the highest since January 1995.
• Expectations for growth in export orders improved to a four-decade high.
• Aston Martin announced a trade and investment deal with Japan worth £500 million. At home, the five-year package will benefit Aston Martin’s factories in St Athan, Wales and Gaydon, Warwickshire. Exports from the plants will be worth £400 million. The UK beat more than 20 other countries to secure the deal…
• Exports are up 10%
• London retains financial services crown with the City extending its lead over New York, Hong Kong and Singapore in international rankings.
• British exports up 11.4% since Brexit vote
• We're the world #5 economy and the EU27's #1 global export destination. We've the world’s #1 financial centre and the world’s #8 manufacturing nation.
• Reports stated almost 100,000 jobs will be created in the food and drink sector over the next five years as firms seek to cash in on the more competitive exchange rate to boost exports. According to research published today in the The Food and Drink Report 2017, from Lloyds Commercial Banking. It found that the proportion of manufacturers investing to secure new international customers has risen from 55% to 69% over the past year
• The UK has the highest level of foreign direct investment in Europe.
• We recently had our first budget surplus in 15 years
• The latest survey from the Robert Walters City Jobs Index, for July, reported that hiring in financial services was up 13 percent year-on-year.
• Britain grew faster in the six months after the referendum than in the six months before.
• Dutch firm TMF is to move its HQ from Amsterdam to London after £1bn float on Stock Exchange
• Exports were up 10 percent year-on-year in May, helped by the long-overdue correction of the exchange rate.
• Britain reaps benefits of a cheaper pound as tourist numbers hit record 23.1m and spending surges by £872m. Tourism is set for ‘rapid growth’ over the next eight years
• U.K. Still Dealmakers’ Favourite Despite Brexit - Business executives from around the world ranked Britain third behind the United States and China as the top investment destination according to EY survey
• London's skyscrapers command premium rents and still the most expensive in Europe
• UK mid-market fundraising hits record high

Banking / Finance

• Deutsche Bank yesterday signed a 25-year commitment to a new London headquarters. The bank has signed up for a minimum of 469,000 sq ft of office space and has taken an option allowing it to expand further at a later date. About 5,000 employees will move to the new office when work is completed in 2023. That’s the same Deutsche Bank that just last month stoked up media headlines with its warning that it would downsize its London operation.
• We are seeing a 17% rise in City firms recruitment.
• We were told that the FTSE 100 index of leading companies’ share prices would collapse; in fact, British stocks performed strongly after the Brexit vote.
• London is still Europe’s fintech hub
• Finance graduates stick with Britain - UK’s financial services sector is still top destination for new entrants
• London’s Executive MBA market grows

Employment and Housing

• Unemployment rate falls to 4.4%, the lowest since 1975. The number of people in work is at an all-time high. Unemployment fell by 57,000 to 1.48 million in the three months to June.
• Unemployment fell again, as every month since the referendum vote, to 1.49 million (from 1.67 million in June of last year)
• Youth unemployment in EU countries is currently - Greece 43.3%, Spain 38.7%, Italy 35.1%, Cyprus 26.3%, Croatia 26.1%, France 23%, UK 11.9%
• UK employers raise pay as Brexit skills shortage bites
• The UK is still the most attractive European country for employers and staff according to a report by Colliers International.
• The Chinese are pumping billions into London real estate market
• Pension funds are still seeking commercial real estate

Business and Retail

• 35% of businesses reported an increase in total orders.
• UK retail sales show biggest jump in over three years according to BDO
• Retail sales, official figures show, are up 2.9 percent on this time last year.
• Amazon to create 1,200 permanent jobs in Britain with new fulfilment centre in Bolton
• Telefonica “investing disproportionately” in O2 despite Brexit
• 4 in 5 mid-market firms are predicting business growth

thats an awesome summary, thanks

I would also like to see the counter argument, the negatives that HAVE occured, not the "maybes" and "coulds"

im not asking you to collate anything, but it would be interesting

gfplux

cogito wrote: »

You never give up do you? Do you consider the following things that have happened since the referendum to be negative?


Manufacturing

• British manufacturing continues to strengthen: the sector grew at a faster rate in July than EU countries including France, Spain and Ireland. British factories are on a hiring spree as they scramble to keep up with a booming global order book. The IHS Markit purchasing managers’ index rose to 55.1 in July, from 54.2 in June. Manufacturing number-crunchers said they saw a “significant boost” in activity.
• Domestic orders were up +19%, with export orders growth remaining strong at +17%.
• Alongside robust expectations for demand, firms accumulated raw materials at the fastest pace in forty years and stocks of work-in-progress expanded at a record rate. Strong confidence levels saw stock building of raw materials (+20%) which was the strongest since April 1977 (+22%), whilst stocks of work-in-progress rose (+16%).
• A third of manufacturers said headcount was increasing at the fastest rate for three years and hiring intentions for the coming quarter also improved.
• Nissan has said it will increase output from its Sunderland plant by 20% to 600,000 units per year, and raise the quantity of parts sourced in the UK from 40% to 80%.
• We have the highest manufacturing demand since August '88
• Boeing is opening its first construction plant in Yorkshire, the only one in Europe.
• British factory production is at a 22-year high,
• Nissan to increase production by a fifth and double its UK parts business.
• Manufacturing orders are at their highest level since August 1988

Trade / Exports / Investment

• Export optimism is strong, 43% of firms said the volume of output over the past three months was up – the highest since January 1995.
• Expectations for growth in export orders improved to a four-decade high.
• Aston Martin announced a trade and investment deal with Japan worth £500 million. At home, the five-year package will benefit Aston Martin’s factories in St Athan, Wales and Gaydon, Warwickshire. Exports from the plants will be worth £400 million. The UK beat more than 20 other countries to secure the deal…
• Exports are up 10%
• London retains financial services crown with the City extending its lead over New York, Hong Kong and Singapore in international rankings.
• British exports up 11.4% since Brexit vote
• We're the world #5 economy and the EU27's #1 global export destination. We've the world’s #1 financial centre and the world’s #8 manufacturing nation.
• Reports stated almost 100,000 jobs will be created in the food and drink sector over the next five years as firms seek to cash in on the more competitive exchange rate to boost exports. According to research published today in the The Food and Drink Report 2017, from Lloyds Commercial Banking. It found that the proportion of manufacturers investing to secure new international customers has risen from 55% to 69% over the past year
• The UK has the highest level of foreign direct investment in Europe.
• We recently had our first budget surplus in 15 years
• The latest survey from the Robert Walters City Jobs Index, for July, reported that hiring in financial services was up 13 percent year-on-year.
• Britain grew faster in the six months after the referendum than in the six months before.
• Dutch firm TMF is to move its HQ from Amsterdam to London after £1bn float on Stock Exchange
• Exports were up 10 percent year-on-year in May, helped by the long-overdue correction of the exchange rate.
• Britain reaps benefits of a cheaper pound as tourist numbers hit record 23.1m and spending surges by £872m. Tourism is set for ‘rapid growth’ over the next eight years
• U.K. Still Dealmakers’ Favourite Despite Brexit - Business executives from around the world ranked Britain third behind the United States and China as the top investment destination according to EY survey
• London's skyscrapers command premium rents and still the most expensive in Europe
• UK mid-market fundraising hits record high

Banking / Finance

• Deutsche Bank yesterday signed a 25-year commitment to a new London headquarters. The bank has signed up for a minimum of 469,000 sq ft of office space and has taken an option allowing it to expand further at a later date. About 5,000 employees will move to the new office when work is completed in 2023. That’s the same Deutsche Bank that just last month stoked up media headlines with its warning that it would downsize its London operation.
• We are seeing a 17% rise in City firms recruitment.
• We were told that the FTSE 100 index of leading companies’ share prices would collapse; in fact, British stocks performed strongly after the Brexit vote.
• London is still Europe’s fintech hub
• Finance graduates stick with Britain - UK’s financial services sector is still top destination for new entrants
• London’s Executive MBA market grows

Employment and Housing

• Unemployment rate falls to 4.4%, the lowest since 1975. The number of people in work is at an all-time high. Unemployment fell by 57,000 to 1.48 million in the three months to June.
• Unemployment fell again, as every month since the referendum vote, to 1.49 million (from 1.67 million in June of last year)
• Youth unemployment in EU countries is currently - Greece 43.3%, Spain 38.7%, Italy 35.1%, Cyprus 26.3%, Croatia 26.1%, France 23%, UK 11.9%
• UK employers raise pay as Brexit skills shortage bites
• The UK is still the most attractive European country for employers and staff according to a report by Colliers International.
• The Chinese are pumping billions into London real estate market
• Pension funds are still seeking commercial real estate

Business and Retail

• 35% of businesses reported an increase in total orders.
• UK retail sales show biggest jump in over three years according to BDO
• Retail sales, official figures show, are up 2.9 percent on this time last year.
• Amazon to create 1,200 permanent jobs in Britain with new fulfilment centre in Bolton
• Telefonica “investing disproportionately” in O2 despite Brexit
• 4 in 5 mid-market firms are predicting business growth

Why would I give up on trying to stop the long term damage to Britain that is Brexit.

I am glad to think that you and your family are enjoying good financial times since June 2016. Your belief that Britain is in better shape since then can only be based on your unique position.
Your list while long (copy and paste or your own research?) will not convince an ordinary person who is suffering financially unlike you.
I have often been attacked for living where I do so perhaps by being Tax resident in Greece has insulated you from what is happening to ordinary people in Britain.

mayonnaise

gfplux wrote: »

I am glad to think that you and your family are enjoying good financial times since June 2016.

Life is probably good for retired expats in Lakonia, Greece.