Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Matt_L

Herzlos wrote: »

In discussions with Davis. Like I said; they've published a document explaining how they'll calculate it, once the UK let's them know what's happening.

Can you explain why team UK don't want to publish their economic investigations, claiming they don't want to weaken their negotiating position, when that statement already weakens their negotiating position?

In discussions with Davis? What does that mean? Have they or haven't they published a figure? If yes could you please post a link to it, if no as i suspect is the case then just continue to waffle..

No i can't explain why the UK haven't published their economic investigation, you could write them a letter if it concerns you that much. I will accept their reasoning that it may weaken our negotiating positioning..

Herzlos

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/financial-settlement-essential-principles-draft-position-paper_en.pdf

No final numerical figure, as already explained.

Herzlos

Matt_L wrote: »

I will accept their reasoning that it may weaken our negotiating positioning..

You do appreciate that announcing you can't release a report because you don't want to weaken your negotiating position has a seriously weakening effect on your negotiating position?

I mean, they've all but admitted that it's pretty bad. If it was only a bit bad they'd release it with a caveat of being worth it, if it was neutral or positive they'd be making a huge deal of it.

So are they trying to hide the figures to stop the EU finding out how weak we are, or to avoid the voters finding out how bad it's going to be? Or are they just incompetent?

Matt_L

Herzlos wrote: »

You do appreciate that announcing you can't release a report because you don't want to weaken your negotiating position has a seriously weakening effect on your negotiating position?

I mean, they've all but admitted that it's pretty bad. If it was only a bit bad they'd release it with a caveat of being worth it, if it was neutral or positive they'd be making a huge deal of it.

So are they trying to hide the figures to stop the EU finding out how weak we are, or to avoid the voters finding out how bad it's going to be? Or are they just incompetent?

It may also be the fact that the very same people that predicted a recession and half a million jobs being lost if a vote leave won the referendum are the very same people producing these figures....

BobQ

Matt_L wrote: »

It may also be the fact that the very same people that predicted a recession and half a million jobs being lost if a vote leave won the referendum are the very same people producing these figures....

And come the day we leave without a trade deal, these people may well be proved right.

Herzlos

Matt_L wrote: »

It may also be the fact that the very same people that predicted a recession and half a million jobs being lost if a vote leave won the referendum are the very same people producing these figures....

Oh yeah I forgot - it's quite likely these (allegedly numerous) reports will have come from experts and so should be entirely ignored.

However, that being the case, why commission them in the first place, or why not just write them off as being non-conclusive?

Tromking

BobQ wrote: »

And come the day we leave without a trade deal, these people may well be proved right.

I don’t think you can make a time specific prediction, get it wrong and then be proved right.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Tromking wrote: »

I don’t you can make a time specific prediction, get it wrong and then be proved right.

Lots of forecasts predicted economic effects from leaving the EU under various scenarios that will not be proven wrong or right until the scenarios actually happen.

So to dismiss all forecasts because a different forecast was partially incorrect about timing is clearly not prudent.

gfplux

Matt_L wrote: »

It may also be the fact that the very same people that predicted a recession and half a million jobs being lost if a vote leave won the referendum are the very same people producing these figures....

Britain leaves the EU at the end of March 2019. The devaluation of the pound (directly related to the Brexit result) and the subsequent 16 months (and counting) of uncertainty have had a negative impact on Britains economy.
All the predictions were based on Britain leaving the EU immediately after the referendum.
Everyone should be concerned that some if not all those predictions may come true in due course.
Anyone with a British passport who is not embarrassed by the present incompetence of Britains representatives is not keeping up with the news. Yes it is like a car crash in slow motion and I don't blame anyone for shutting their eyes but hiding your eyes will not make it better.

Eric_the_half_a_bee

gfplux wrote: »

All the predictions were based on Britain leaving the EU immediately after the referendum.

That is absolute rubbish. The most high profile prediction of all, that from the Treasury, made it clear that the predictions related to the very period we are currently in:

A vote to leave would cause an immediate and profound economic shock creating instability and uncertainty which would be compounded by the complex and interdependent negotiations that would follow. The central conclusion of the analysis is that the effect of this profound shock would be to push the UK into recession and lead to a sharp rise in unemployment...

While the referendum would settle the issue of EU membership once and for all, many aspects of the UK’s international and domestic economic policy framework would be put in doubt, leading to a significant rise in uncertainty. Businesses and households would respond to this by putting off spending decisions until the nature of new arrangements with the EU became clearer. This uncertainty effect would also lower overall demand in the economy in the immediate aftermath of a vote to leave...

The extent and duration of the uncertainty created would depend on the progress made in negotiations with the EU and other international partners which would be inherently uncertain. Four processes would need to be completed:

 Process 1: agreeing the UK’s terms of withdrawal from the EU under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union
 Process 2: agreeing the UK’s new trading relationship with the EU
 Process 3: agreeing the UK’s new trading relationships with the rest of the world including over 50 countries with which the UK would need to negotiate new trade arrangements
 Process 4: changing the UK’s domestic regulatory and legislative framework

Each of these four processes would be complicated in their own right, but conducting them all at the same time, on any terms that would be acceptable to the UK and within the specified two-year period for leaving the EU would almost certainly be impossible. If these processes were more protracted, the uncertainty would be larger and, as set out in a previous HM Government document, could last up to a decade or more.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-treasury-analysis-the-immediate-economic-impact-of-leaving-the-eu