Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

setmefree2 wrote: »

I don't think there can be any surprise that less well qualified people support Brexit - since they are the ones having their wages pushed down by mass immigration and they are the ones whose kids are being priced out of the housing market.

Indeed. We all agree (I think) on the reasons most people are assumed to have voted for Brexit. What we disagree on is whether that'll help.

Do you honestly believe that a hard-ish Brexit will suddenly boost the living standards for those just-about-managings that voted for Brexit? That they will get more money, or cheaper housing?

I can only see things getting worse for them, since a lot of the things they take for granted, like environmental controls and workers rights were instigated by the EU, and the Tories are currently in consultation to see what they can do to enable more businesses (i.e. what workers and environmental regulations they can weaken).

TLDR; We agree on why people voted Brexit. We disagree that it'll actually help them.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

Someone who got a local job from aged 15 and worked there until retirement is much less likely to have had world interaction than someone who left uni aged 22, had to move for work and changed jobs regularly. People who grew up before air travel was common won't have seen as much of the world either.

How many people leave university and work abroad very few, I left school at 16 and stayed in same job until I retired but have come into contact with many cultures at work.

Air travel has been common since late 70s I like many of my friends have been travelling abroad since 70s.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

There are some pointless degrees I accept. I don't remember being spoonfed leftist ideas, so it's not a given in university. Even unrelated degrees are useful to jobs as they provide a few skills like independent work and research. People with degrees tend to generate more tax income and a well educated population is better than a poorly educated population (unless you're trying to control them), so are a net benefit and they should be taxpayer funded. The current student debt system is taxpayer funded anyway, but with loads of overheads.

You are not comparing like with like in the past people with degrees tended to generate more tax income because degrees were valued higher. But will the current crop of degrees generate more tax income that a well train non university educated person.

From where I sit all the current system has achieved is to transfer the funding of training from the companies who need well train staff to the state.

I agree the current system is largely tax funded so let's call the kettle black it's not a loan but graduation tax.

mayonnaise

setmefree2 wrote: »

I don't think there can be any surprise that less well qualified people support Brexit - since they are the ones having their wages pushed down by mass immigration and they are the ones whose kids are being priced out of the housing market.

And they will be the ones suffering the most from Brexit.
We're already seeing the 'just about managing' being squeezed into insolvency thanks to Brexit induced inflation, personal debt at record highs, food bank use doubling year-on-year...
When the middle classes start being hit, Brexit will be off the agenda. We already noted a slight change of public opinion towards remain in recent polls (53-47).
When that inches towards 60-40, there is no way the Tories will push through a purely ideological Brexit, crippling the economy and putting them out of political power for generations.
Interesting times ahead.

Eric_the_half_a_bee

mayonnaise wrote: »

We're already seeing the 'just about managing' being squeezed into insolvency thanks to Brexit induced inflation

Insolvency rates are lower now than they were in 2006.

System

setmefree2 wrote: »

I don't think there can be any surprise that less well qualified people support Brexit - since they are the ones having their wages pushed down by mass immigration and they are the ones whose kids are being priced out of the housing market.

I don't believe people consider that their wages are pressed down. Their thought train is on the lines of their wages in relation to other people.

Even if wrexit goes ahead and everything is amazing afterwards, they'll still be on relatively lower incomes than everyone else, and they'll be looking for the next thing or group to blame.

In any scenario, the bloke picking up his benefits or working in a petrol station is still going to bitter and resentful because a banker somewhere earns a 6 figure salary.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

How many people leave university and work abroad very few, I left school at 16 and stayed in same job until I retired but have come into contact with many cultures at work.

How many people in universities interact with foreigners that they wouldn't otherwise?

Air travel has been common since late 70s I like many of my friends have been travelling abroad since 70s.

How does it compare in terms of cost and convenience? It seemed there was a fairly large shift away from holidaying in the UK to holidaying abroad some time well after the 70's. We didn't go abroad until well into the 90's.

lisyloo

Air travel has been common since late 70s I like many of my friends have been travelling abroad since 70s.

You move in different circles to me then.
We used to go on camping holidays with a caravan to tenby, pembrokeshire etc.
I did fly to France in 1981 on a school exchange but that was pretty rare.
I started to travel abroad around 1990.
I would describe my backgroup as working class.

cogito

gfplux wrote: »

News from the Bank of England, those dumb experts.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41803604
----
"The Bank of England believes that up to 75,000 jobs could be lost in financial services following Britain's departure from the European Union.
I understand senior figures at the Bank are using the number as a "reasonable scenario", particularly if there is no specific UK-EU financial services deal.
The number could change depending on the UK's post-Brexit trading relationship with the EU.
But the bank still expects substantial job losses.
Many jobs will move to the continent.
The Bank of England has asked banks and other financial institutions, such as hedge funds, to provide it with contingency plans in the event of Britain trading with the EU under World Trade Organisation rules - what some have described as a "hard Brexit"."
---

This can easily be dismissed as expert opinion is involved.

You missed the part where it read that a poll of 100 finance firms suggested that job losses would be less than 10000 over the 5 years following brexit.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

Do you honestly believe that a hard-ish Brexit will suddenly boost the living standards for those just-about-managings that voted for Brexit? That they will get more money, or cheaper housing?

No, as the structual issues in the UK economy exist with or without Brexit. Nor is Europe immune. Jobless levels remain high at 8.9%.