Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

LHW99

The truth is that we can either take the increasingly plain risks and costs of leaving the EU or have the stability, growth and revenues vital for crucial public services like the NHS and social care.

IMO the issues with the NHS relate to its structure in general, and have been apparent well vefore we even entered the then EEC and are not caused entirely by funding, and certainly not by Brexit. These are worth a read, although both date from some years ago:
http://www.historyextra.com/period/modern/the-nhs-what-can-we-learn-from-history/
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/57a08d91e5274a31e000192c/The-history-and-development-of-the-UK-NHS.pdf

Arklight

Moby wrote: »

When I went to my college library I could read the Guardian or Times. The Express was not available there. Despite what people think now to justify their views over issues such as Brexit or Trump, quality and expertise does matter; one 'opinion' is not as good as another; One source is simply not as good as another.

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Anti-intellectualism


Rags such as the Mail, Sun, Express are the mouthpiece of this anti-intellectualism.
Murdoch, Dacre, Rothermere, Desmond etc are archetypal populist right wing bigots whose objective is to sell papers to make money through creating strife, division between the human tribes. Immigration, race, the EU, welfare scroungers, socialists, liberal judges etc are all used as populist folk devil bait to draw in the naive and ignorant. Why does this matter? The tribalism brought about by Trumpism and UKIP is becoming very divisive and damaging and ultimately the only way the human species can survive is by reaching out across these divides. Nationalism, patriotism are values which have had their day and they represent a tribal mentality which is ultimately destructive to social cohesion.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Death-Expertise-Campaign-Established-Knowledge/dp/0190469412/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1518440784&sr=8-1&keywords=the+death+of+expertise


On another aspect. It's time for Labour to stop sitting on the fence and decide what a jobs first Brexit actually means!:-

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/neil-kinnock-jeremy-corbyn-labour-stop-brexit-save-nhs

It’s partly that, it’s partly people buying into media that confirms what they want to believe.

Right wing voters typically have less formal education than Left wing ones. Once an individual gets a doctorate it’s improbable that they will vote Tory / Republican.

As you can see whenever Education is raised here, the Right builds this confirmation bias into its own renewal by largely distrusting and disliking formal Education in general. Which leads to more right wing voters.

The Right Wing press is doing exactly what extremist movements have always done. Creating an out group of suspicious fifth columnists, intellectuals, and foreigners who are working to thwart the will of the people. During the Cultural Revolution people didn’t even want to wear glasses in case it made them look like they might have a university education.

ukcarper

Arklight wrote: »

It!!!8217;s partly that, it!!!8217;s partly people buying into media that confirms what they want to believe.

Right wing voters typically have less formal education than Left wing ones. Once an individual gets a doctorate it!!!8217;s improbable that they will vote Tory / Republican.

As you can see whenever Education is raised here, the Right builds this confirmation bias into its own renewal by largely distrusting and disliking formal Education in general. Which leads to more right wing voters.

The Right Wing press is doing exactly what extremist movements have always done. Creating an out group of suspicious fifth columnists, intellectuals, and foreigners who are working to thwart the will of the people. During the Cultural Revolution people didn!!!8217;t even want to wear glasses in case it made them look like they might have a university education.

What you dont seem to understand is that its older voters who are more likely to vote Tory and as fewer older people went on to university the proportion of those that did is lower. The reason they didnt go on to further eduction was not because they are less intelligent but the system in place at the time.

Arklight

ukcarper wrote: »

What you dont seem to understand is that its older voters who are more likely to vote Tory and as fewer older people went on to university the proportion of those that did is lower. The reason they didnt go on to further eduction was not because they are less intelligent but the system in place at the time.

This has already been factored into the research, of which there is quite a bit now. Within age groups, the more formal education a person has the more they likely they are to vote for the Left.

In the referendum, a university educated pensioner was probably a Remain voter. They were just outnumbered by less well educated peers.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/labour-mp-is-right-better-educated-people-more-likely-to-vote-remain

I know that the Brexit campaign explains this by insisting that they teach communism in universities. Apart from my flat mate having an argument with an SWP canvasser I went through an entire university career without once being politically indoctrinated, so it seems probable to me that a degree teaches people to process information impartially.

This is also based on my rational observation that Brexit is complete insanity and Brexiteers clearly don’t have the foggiest idea what they are doing.

tracey3596

ukcarper wrote: »

What you dont seem to understand is that its older voters who are more likely to vote Tory and as fewer older people went on to university the proportion of those that did is lower. The reason they didnt go on to further eduction was not because they are less intelligent but the system in place at the time.

What is also denied is the decline in circulation of the tabloids versus a recent rise in circulation of the Times and the far slower decline in quality titles.
Surely applying the logic used in earlier posts this equates to a decline in anti-intellectualism contrary to that which these earlier posts are attempting to suggest?

Trying to say that the decline is because of increased internet access won't wash unless you can provide figures which accurately confirm that they are, which is a difficult one because there's no data showing who is accessing what and from where, certainly not on a regular basis either.
The 31.5 million "unique browsers daily" for digital platform versions of national newspapers could be from anywhere.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2017/jan/19/popular-newspapers-suffer-greater-circulation-falls-than-qualities

ukcarper

Arklight wrote: »

This has already been factored into the research, of which there is quite a bit now. Within age groups, the more formal education a person has the more they likely they are to vote for the Left.

In the referendum, a university educated pensioner was probably a Remain voter. They were just outnumbered by less well educated peers.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/labour-mp-is-right-better-educated-people-more-likely-to-vote-remain

I know that the Brexit campaign explains this by insisting that they teach communism in universities. Apart from my flat mate having an argument with an SWP canvasser I went through an entire university career without once being politically indoctrinated, so it seems probable to me that a degree teaches people to process information impartially.

This is also based on my rational observation that Brexit is complete insanity and Brexiteers clearly don!!!8217;t have the foggiest idea what they are doing.

That is about brexit and I!!!8217;m not convinced, you were talking about voting for right wing parties You rational observation are just that observations not necessarily rational. I would say it!!!8217;s not rational to base all your decisions on predictions supporting your view and ignoring those which do not. I would say on balance it would be been better remain but that just my opinion based on by interpretation of all available information.

tracey3596

Arklight wrote: »

This has already been factored into the research, of which there is quite a bit now. Within age groups, the more formal education a person has the more they likely they are to vote for the Left.

In the referendum, a university educated pensioner was probably a Remain voter. They were just outnumbered by less well educated peers.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/labour-mp-is-right-better-educated-people-more-likely-to-vote-remain

I know that the Brexit campaign explains this by insisting that they teach communism in universities. Apart from my flat mate having an argument with an SWP canvasser I went through an entire university career without once being politically indoctrinated, so it seems probable to me that a degree teaches people to process information impartially.

This is also based on my rational observation that Brexit is complete insanity and Brexiteers clearly don’t have the foggiest idea what they are doing.

That's really quite amusing when so many academics themselves are saying the following:
"Academics reject 'low education' Leave myth"

The academics, including individuals from both sides of the referendum debate, have formed a new group, Briefings for Brexit, which aims to counter the claims with "serious evidence and reasoned arguments".

Please note especially the "from both sides of the referendum debate" bit.


As it's paywalled I can't post more but it goes on to quote academics saying that claims about any supposed correlation between education and being pro-EU simply are not true.
No doubt we will see their evidence in our media as they publish it.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/17/academics-reject-low-education-leave-myth/

Arklight

ukcarper wrote: »

That is about brexit and I!!!8217;m not convinced, you were talking about voting for right wing parties You rational observation are just that observations not necessarily rational. I would say it!!!8217;s not rational to base all your decisions on predictions supporting your view and ignoring those which do not. I would say on balance it would be been better remain but that just my opinion based on by interpretation of all available information.

I said there were many studies. Here is another one:

http://www.people-press.org/2016/04/26/a-wider-ideological-gap-between-more-and-less-educated-adults/

Here is some commentary that offers an explanation of that particular study:

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/15/opinion/why-are-the-highly-educated-so-liberal.html

Here is a YouGov report specifically relating to Labour and Tory voters in the UK:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/25/demographics-dividing-britain/

Education: The higher the qualification, the higher Labour’s vote share

You may have your own explanation for this, one perhaps being that an education apartheid has developed and membership of the EU somehow enables this to the detriment of those without degrees. Though I’ve yet to hear that as an argument for Brexit.

But you can’t ignore it just because you don’t like it. In general the better educated people are the more they earn, the longer they live, the less likely they are to be unemployed etc. Overall we believe that someone who has a degree will make better decisions and be more successful than the parallel universe version of themselves that doesn’t.

So is it just possible, that on a national scale, they are right about Brexit and the less educated people are wrong?

ukcarper

Arklight wrote: »

I said there were many studies. Here is another one:

http://www.people-press.org/2016/04/26/a-wider-ideological-gap-between-more-and-less-educated-adults/

Here is some commentary that offers an explanation of that particular study:

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/15/opinion/why-are-the-highly-educated-so-liberal.html

Here is a YouGov report specifically relating to Labour and Tory voters in the UK:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/25/demographics-dividing-britain/



You may have your own explanation for this, one perhaps being that an education apartheid has developed and membership of the EU somehow enables this to the detriment of those without degrees. Though I’ve yet to hear that as an argument for Brexit.

But you can’t ignore it just because you don’t like it. In general the better educated people are the more they earn, the longer they live, the less likely they are to be unemployed etc. Overall we believe that someone who has a degree will make better decisions and be more successful than the parallel universe version of themselves that doesn’t.

So is it just possible, that on a national scale, they are right about Brexit and the less educated people are wrong?

Did you look a YouGov results 36% of people with degree voted conservatives and 28% vote Labour.

Arklight

ukcarper wrote: »

Did you look a YouGov results 36% of people with degree voted conservatives and 28% vote Labour.

You’re misinterpreting the statistics by focusing on Labour as the only left wing party. 47% of graduates voted for Labour and the Lib Dems (a party whose sole policy at the moment is abandoning Brexit.)

40% voted for the Tories and UKIP.

Greens would be accounted for under the 13% of other. I can’t think of any other right wing parties that would account for much of that group.

Education: The higher the qualification, the higher Labour’s vote share

Alongside age, education has become one of the key electoral demographic dividing lines. We saw it was a huge factor in the EU referendum campaign and, after the last general election, we made sure we accounted for qualifications in our methodology. This election will be no different. While the Conservatives lead amongst all educational groupings, their vote share decrease for every extra qualification a voter has, whilst the Labour and Lib Dem vote share increases.

Amongst those with no formal qualifications, the Conservative lead by 35%. But when it comes to those with a degree, the Tory lead falls to 8%. Education also shapes other parties’ vote shares. UKIP also struggles amongst highly educated voters, polling four times higher amongst those with no formal qualifications compared to those with a degree.