Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

ukcarper

Arklight wrote: »

No, I think we should find every baby boomer with no 'O' levels and immediately promote them to be brain surgeons.

Maybe you'd like them to start on you.

That’s bad even for you, you arrogance obviously outways your intelligence by a large degree.

ukcarper

ilovehouses wrote: »

Do you mean the transitional agreement or the post-transitional deal.

The transitional deal will probably include FOM and being under ECJ & EU rules but I'd find myself asking so what?

I really don't see the big deal here. The transition is a just a period of time where things stay pretty much as they are so we can prepare for the new rules to be implemented when the transition ends. There is simply nothing for anyone to get their knickers in a twist about; we've been following EU rules for decades - another 20 months won't hurt.

It would defeat the object of a transition if it introduced major changes to be prepared for implementation in March 2019 followed by another set of major changes to be implemented in December 2020.

If you're talking about the post transition deal that's a different matter but I doubt it'll include FOM or us being under ECJ jurisdiction. I can't see much of a divergence between EU and UK rules though other than in name only given the UK has been involved in the drafting and approval process of all EU legislation.

I’m talking about post transition deal. I also dont think many rules will change post brexit. we will have to see how stubborn the EU will be regarding FOM and ECJ in a trade deal but Im worried that they are prepared to put ideology above ecomnic sense and we will end up with no deal to the detriment of both sides.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

I’m talking about post transition deal. I also dont think many rules will change post brexit. we will have to see how stubborn the EU will be regarding FOM and ECJ in a trade deal but Im worried that they are prepared to put ideology above ecomnic sense and we will end up with no deal to the detriment of both sides.

They've already told us; we can have Canada, Norway or South Korea.

Some violate our red lines, and some will screw us.

ukcarper

ilovehouses wrote: »

I thought FOM and ECJ were on the UK governments 'red line' list? That sounds pretty stubborn too. If the EU are equally stubborn then without compromise we're leaving without a deal.

I dont see that they have any choice really as thats what people voted for. I dont think FOM or being under the jurisdiction of another countries court is a normal requirement for a trade deal.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Maybe BMW will move crankshaft manufacture and engine assembly to the UK post brexit.

Maybe BMW already do.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

They've already told us; we can have Canada, Norway or South Korea.

Some violate our red lines, and some will screw us.

I dont expect deal to be the same as it is now and expect to to cause some damage but limiting that damage would be good for both sides.

Thrugelmir

Theophile wrote: »

We either remain in the customs union or wave goodbye to our car industry.

Bavaria has similar concerns.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Bavaria has similar concerns.

We buy under 10% of German car output. The Bavarian car industry is going nowhere.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

I dont see that they have any choice really as thats what people voted for. I dont think FOM or being under the jurisdiction of another countries court is a normal requirement for a trade deal.

It's not. But we don't want a regular trade deal. We want seamless access to a single market

Rough_Justice

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Bavaria has similar concerns.

Yes it does as two German Deloitte reports have now confirmed.
Not one.
Two.


The UK is a large market for new cars; the EU manufacturers really won't want to risk losing the majority of their trade here.
We could easily replace (just for example) German and French with Korean and Japanese; I'm sure too that either would be quite willing to invest in UK manufacture too in order to gain sales of hundreds of thousands of vehicles per annum to the detriment of protectionist EU companies.


Not only that but it looks like the remainers bleating in here don't realise just how global the car industry has become OR that the UK is already increasing home-grown components.
VW for example has factories across the world, from Russian Scandia buses to Argentinian Scania axles; from multiple Chinese factories to Indian-built Skodas.

If manufacturing can be done in such diverse global locations to support sales locally there should be little resistance to supporting UK factories since around 2.5 million cars are registered here annually.

Or does anybody really think that VW just as one example won't really miss sales of a few hundred thousand vehicles per year - or at best see a huge reduction in that figure?
:rotfl:

This is a bit old now but it gives an idea of this argument:

But these tariffs won’t kill Britain. Instead, they offer a huge opportunity. Whoever can gain access to the British car market with a trade deal gets to replace the Germans as the dominant force in the U.K. motor industry.

http://observer.com/2017/08/brexit-britain-car-industry-free-trade/