Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

For those interested in what’s happening in Brussels today, Politico have this.
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“TRANSITION POSITION: Big day in Brussels as the EU27 foreign ministers meet for a General Affairs Council at 1.30 p.m. U.K. time to finalize their negotiating stance on a Brexit transition. The document is not expected to be changed from the leaked draft we saw last week. POLITICO’s David Herszenhorn and Jacopo Barigazzi set out the five issues likely to trigger the main rows with Britain over the coming weeks. In the FT splash, Alex Barker predicts Britain’s demand to vet any new EU laws agreed during the transition period will become the biggest bone of contention.

Brexit diary: EU27 foreign ministers will be doorstepped on their way into the meeting at lunchtime and may have a word or two to say about transition. The main event will be EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier’s press conference at around 3.30 p.m. U.K. time.

What Brexiteers are worrying about: In the Times, Bruno Waterfield says EU negotiators privately expect Britain to extend the transition period from two to up to five years.”
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I am certainly looking forward to the Barnier press conference.

gfplux

ukcarper wrote: »

So leaving has had no impact also I don’t think it about security it’s more about preventing people from staying on.

Yes, I don’t think the ETIAS has changed just because Britain is leaving the EU.
It frankly does not matter what people think. Just like the USA-ESTA if you want to visit you have to fill out the form, Pay your money and hope they give it to you.

Enterprise_1701C

Well, if the eu decide to make us pay for this ETIAS then we will be far less likely to go to the eu on holiday, mainly because we tend to do last minute trips due to the nature of our business.

It is entirely up to them whether they do or not, but I would find it highly amusing if they suddenly find themselves without the British holiday trade, and I think we should not require the same, thereby making the holiday trade rather one sided.

We do however need to find a way of keeping track of anyone, not just Europeans, that comes to this country legally and decides that they do not fancy leaving and of tracing those that enter illegally.

I have always been in favour of ID cards, they would be a fantastic way of making sure people did not manage to claim things they should not, such as free NHS treatment etc. I think it has to be inevitable within the next 10 years or so, the only people that would not want an ID card has to be those with something to fear from it.

Herzlos

To be honest I doubt the EU cares more about a handful of holiday makers than security. Very few people will be put off by the EUR5 fee. It's valid for 5 years, too, so won't even affect you.

What it will affect is people who are declined for whatever reason, and people who took access for granted. I believe there's also likely to be more border checks for ETIAS holders (like the US does), and longer waits (since we'll be denied access to the fast tracks). Lots of little delays.

I do predict a lot of Brexiteer outrage about us being treated like 2nd class citizens when going on holiday to Alicante or Magaluf, with a lot of "well, duh, what did you expect?" from the Remainers.

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

Not even your straw man would find that racist.

You don't do irony, do you?

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

To be honest I doubt the EU cares more about a handful of holiday makers than security. Very few people will be put off by the EUR5 fee. It's valid for 5 years, too, so won't even affect you.

What it will affect is people who are declined for whatever reason, and people who took access for granted. I believe there's also likely to be more border checks for ETIAS holders (like the US does), and longer waits (since we'll be denied access to the fast tracks). Lots of little delays.

I do predict a lot of Brexiteer outrage about us being treated like 2nd class citizens when going on holiday to Alicante or Magaluf, with a lot of "well, duh, what did you expect?" from the Remainers.

I’ve read the ETIAS document again and the way I understand it is that if we were not leaving we would not need one. So I ask again are UK citizens more of a security risk when we leave.

fewgroats

phillw wrote: »

Well some of the brexit voters vocally don't like seeing too many brown faces & EU citizens are mostly white. So that probably won't cause a problem for them.

Only if London sneezes, the rest of us catch a cold. So those in areas who feel they can get the EU citizens out will suffer the pain of Brexit much more than Londoners.

westernpromise

ilovehouses wrote: »

I find the 'argument' about the lack of democracy in the EU to be rather vacuous. It would have more credence if those making it had ever complained about the UK having an unelected second chamber and head of state

The comparison is inexact, though. The UK's unelected second chamber can only propose modifications to bills and by convention never votes down anything that was a manifesto promise, so its actual executive competence is close to none. The head of state likewise has no material powers - the Queen does exactly as she's told.

The problem with the European parliament is that it isn't a parliament in the customary sense of there being a government versus a loyal opposition. All there is is a government and no opposition. There is no party or cross-party bloc at Strasbourg or wherever that's opposed to further integration and wants to wind it back. It's pretty much a condition of being in the EU parliament that you're in favour of a superstate. To oppose it is not a respectable point of view.

It's as though the only MPs allowed in the House were those who support the current government. The result of this is that the kind of MEPs who get elected who do disagree with the EU's direction are UKIP fruitcakes. There is no measured, conservative shade of opinion and as a result there's no space between headlong integration and Brexit.

n that respect, EU democracy does actually quite closely resemble USSR democracy, where they had elections pretty frequently but the only permitted candidates were Communists. So the EU must, I am afraid, take its share of the blame for Brexit.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

I’ve read the ETIAS document again and the way I understand it is that if we were not leaving we would not need one. So I ask again are UK citizens more of a security risk when we leave.

Let's try it this way; You're a tube station in zone 1, so are covered by a zone 1 pass. You decided for whatever reason to be part of zone 2 instead. Are you then covered by a zone 1 pass?

Why do you expect travel to the eu to work differently?

If we're not in the eu, And don't have free movement we don't get the benefits of being in the eu or free movement.

Who knows if we'll be more of a security risk? The eu won't have any say over who we let in.

cogito

ilovehouses wrote: »

The Queen can refuse to dissolve parliament and call an election and she has the right to choose a Prime Minister. All MPs have to swear an oath of allegiance to the Queen. These are real powers and have real effects.

Theoretically, yes. If the monarch chose to exercise such powers, it would provoke a constitutional crisis with abolition of the monarchy the likeliest outcome. In other words, it would never happen.