Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

Tromking wrote: »

You’re beginning to come across as desperate.
I read the article yesterday, but isn’t the answer in the article?
JLR want to tap into the special environment in that part of the ROI and R&D will continue to be based overwhelmingly in the U.K.
You do get that successful companies expand into other countries don’t you?

First, I am not desperate. Fascinated yes and looking forward to the new talks starting soon.

You pose an interesting question by quoting that JLR will keep feet in both camps. It reminds me of something on my mind for some time.

Where does Industry stand regarding Brexit. I don’t mean the few who have campaigned publicly since before the referendum.
My suspicion is that they are afraid to come down on one side or the other.
Any decision made about investment in or not in Britain always appears to be accompanied by soft words that suggest Brexit had little to do with the decision.
It’s almost as if Brexit does not play a part in Industries decision making which would be wrong as Brexit is one of the biggest changes in many people’s lifetimes.
When I say Industries I actually mean any and all Company’s operating in all fields in the UK.

A manufacturer builds or does not build a new plant, the announcement mentioned that Brexit was not an important issue.
A retailer opens or closes stores, again the announcement sometimes by omission suggests Brexit is not an issue.

I am not (as a remainer) making an argument for or against Brexit (in this particular post) I am just asking the question.
Is “Brexit” the love that can not speak its name. Is it the one word Company’s dare not mention as they fear upsetting their shareholders or consumers because people on either side of the argument are so passionate about their position?

Tromking

gfplux wrote: »

First, I am not desperate. Fascinated yes and looking forward to the new talks starting soon.

You pose an interesting question by quoting that JLR will keep feet in both camps. It reminds me of something on my mind for some time.

Where does Industry stand regarding Brexit. I don’t mean the few who have campaigned publicly since before the referendum.
My suspicion is that they are afraid to come down on one side or the other.
Any decision made about investment in or not in Britain always appears to be accompanied by soft words that suggest Brexit had little to do with the decision.
It’s almost as if Brexit does not play a part in Industries decision making which would be wrong as Brexit is one of the biggest changes in many people’s lifetimes.
When I say Industries I actually mean any and all Company’s operating in all fields in the UK.

A manufacturer builds or does not build a new plant, the announcement mentioned that Brexit was not an important issue.
A retailer opens or closes stores, again the announcement sometimes by omission suggests Brexit is not an issue.

I am not (as a remainer) making an argument for or against Brexit (in this particular post) I am just asking the question.
Is “Brexit” the love that can not speak its name. Is it the one word Company’s dare not mention as they fear upsetting their shareholders or consumers because people on either side of the argument are so passionate about their position?

Now that despite the dour predictions, the short term negative effects of the Brexit vote have been debunked comprehensively, you are right to flag up any medium and long term effects. Perhaps the more pertinent decision by a European car company is the one PSA will be making on its car plants. Brexit has probably weakened the case for Vauxhall Halewood keeping its car production operations, but on the flip side of that, the U.K. is the second biggest European market for Vauxhall/Opel cars and in a post Brexit scenario where Brits might become necessarily more parochial in its consumer choices, the decision maybe more problematic.

Herzlos

My industry also has a lot of staff around the world, with a lot being outside of the EU. However, a lot of my customers are inside the EU. Very little of my customers by $$ amounts are also in these countries, nor is there much demand, so it's unlikely there will be much growth there unless the demographics change drastically.

A good example that came up recently, of why I value EU membership and the freedom of movement in particular is this; an Indian co-worker and myself are summoned to Eastern Europe, I can get a flight the same day with any materials I need, my co-worker needs at least 3 weeks to get a visa sorted, and would need to send any materials via customs.

Now I'm not saying that losing FoM will mean a 3 week visa process, but by definition it's going to add a delay there. It would then put me at a competitive disadvantage to anyone within the EU who can respond faster to customers.

A bespoke trade deal with India will help things though, as it'll reduce the visa clearing time between UK and India. In theory anyway, as the UK was pretty dead against that when India was trying to negotiate a deal with the EU. How it'll play out when negotiations are less balanced, I don't know.

cogito

Do you think that Weatherspoon's customers give a flying one about the company's stance or that it affects business negatively? Selling cheap beer to people who probably voted for Brexit isn't exactly a complicated business model.

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

Where does Industry stand regarding Brexit. I don’t mean the few who have campaigned publicly since before the referendum.
My suspicion is that they are afraid to come down on one side or the other.

Most UK companies are small and don't trade anywhere other than the UK.

For any company trading with the EU or sourcing goods or services from the EU, the one thing that they want is certainty. 18 months on, the issue is less whether we are in or out, and more what in or out looks like and what that means to their plans.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

But for Brexit would this research facility with 150 jobs be located in the UK.

Then we didn't read the same article.

The company said it had selected Shannon, in western Ireland, for the new research centre because it is seen as an international hub for software engineering. Microchip giant Intel, which is also racing to make drivers obselete, has had a research facility in Shannon since 2000.

Distortion of facts me thinks to suggest otherwise. .

Arklight

BarleyGB wrote: »

Having had to read an almost continuous dribble of negativity around Brexit, mostly clickbait claims and scare stories, im curious how any ardent remainder can continue to justify an anti Brexit stance on the basis of economics.

All the macro indicators are pretty favourable, in fact im struggling to think of any year in the last 20 where the current position and medium term prospects are so positive.

I think its important to recognise that these indications aren’t about today but are market driven and in most cases price in future risk. i.e. the argument that we’ve not left the EU yet hardly stands this test.

[*]This week Sterling has recovered to pre ‘Bexit vote’ levels and the same as it was in 2012 (despite ‘pre-Brexit Vote’ various commentators suggested that Sterling was over valued
[*]Unemployment has continued to fall while total employment breaks record levels almost every quarter
[*]UK Growth is steady and the IMF have admitted that theyre going to have to revise their projection upwards for the 3rd quarter in a row
[*]Purchaser and Supplier confidence levels is at post Credit Crisis high
[*]Manufacturing output is at 10 year record high
[*]Interest rate remains at historic low, with the Bank Of England having to reverse their premature and ill considered rate rise
[*]UK Deficit continuing to reduce
[*]Housing market price increases have stabilised
[*]FTSE100 and All Share index at record levels
[*]Net immigration (a significant concern for many voters) showing signs of reducing
[*]The war, emergency budget, households being £4300 a month worse off, back of the queue for US trade deal, recession and 15% house price collapse has not happened


Just imagine what it would be like if the other 49% (now nearer 29%) could adopt a more positive stance and make the best of it. Recognise that the Remain campaign was far more misleading the Leave and get behind the UK

If Brexit had anything to do with the UK we might do. But as the end of your post shows it isn’t. It’s atavistic with us or against us tribalism. I’m afraid I’m not with you and it doesn’t make me any less British, nor am I going to 'go to the EU if I love it so much' or entertain any of the other charming directives Brexiteers sling around in their indignance at differing opinion.

Your economic predictors are neither here nor there, mainly because you’ve cherry picked what you want to focus on, ignored the fact the markets think Brexit will either be very soft or not happen, and are completely ignoring the considerable loss of rights, opportunities and freedoms we as citizens will suffer due to Brexit.

Arklight

Wetherspoon has calculated that leaving without a deal would result in food prices in our pubs falling by an average of about 3.5 pence per meal and bar prices falling by about 0.5 pence per drink. Similar reductions are likely for supermarket purchases too. For example, the current EU tariffs on popular Aussie wines would come to an end.

https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/tims-viewpoint/tims-viewpoint

That might just pay for all the beer mats.

Incidentally he’s also asking for all EU citizens who are here legally (which is all EU citizens) to be granted unilateral right to remain. Can’t imagine that going down well with the Brexit Blowhards.

cogito

ilovehouses wrote: »

Yes I do. Pro-brexit beermats? He can do one - I don't use Wetherspoons anymore. I find him disingenuous too; he reckons brexit will reduce prices which he mentioned just before he increased all his prices.

I had a chap come round and quote for a new central heating system - he spent half an hour talking about brexit and how happy he was that he thought he'd be able to charge me more. Guess whether he got the job.

For the sake of balance I should point out I've changed my dentist. He, literally, rammed his anti-brexit views down my throat.

In all three cases I thought to myself I just want a pint/ boiler or a filling; why are your strident uninvited views on brexit in any way relevant in the context of this transaction.

So just because you do that doesn't mean that anyone else does it. Does it?

Rough_Justice

cogito wrote: »

Do you think that Weatherspoon's customers give a flying one about the company's stance or that it affects business negatively? Selling cheap beer to people who probably voted for Brexit isn't exactly a complicated business model.

ilovehouses wrote: »

Yes I do. Pro-brexit beermats? He can do one - I don't use Wetherspoons anymore. I find him disingenuous too; he reckons brexit will reduce prices which he mentioned just before he increased all his prices.

I had a chap come round and quote for a new central heating system - he spent half an hour talking about brexit and how happy he was that he thought he'd be able to charge me more. Guess whether he got the job.

For the sake of balance I should point out I've changed my dentist. He, literally, rammed his anti-brexit views down my throat.

In all three cases I thought to myself I just want a pint/ boiler or a filling; why are your strident uninvited views on brexit in any way relevant in the context of this transaction.

That's not being principled, it's plain daft.
Here in the UK we have a saying for such actions.
"Cutting your nose off to spite your face" is the one that springs to mind.

In a similar vein then, do you not use Primark because of their links to Asian sweatshops, with their underage labour and poor safety?
Or Apple products for similar reasons?
Strangely Primark sales continue to grow, and as for Apple ..........

How do you feel about cosmetics being tested on animals? Yet I will lay odds on that you buy products from the conglomerates responsible for these actions.
Maybe you're beginning to realise that there are many far more worthwhile and genuine causes upon which to vent your displeasure?

Personally for example I would choose my plumber primarily for his competency to do the task. I wouldn't give a hoot about his personal opinions or political leanings any more than I would about their accent or what car they drive because they are irrelevant as far as a new central heating system is concerned.

As for Witherspoons, well, I'm not their greatest fan but it wouldn't actually stop me from using one if I felt that I wanted to. After all, you don't have to believe what is written on beer mats; as with many other things, it's not obligatory you know. And it's hardly likely that I would bump into Tim, is it?

why are your strident uninvited views on brexit in any way relevant in the context of this transaction.

They're not.
Neither are your reactions which in honesty appear to be little more than infantile foot-stamping.
You might in the future perhaps consider being brave enough to advise such people to kindly not foist their unwanted opinions upon yourself.
Unless of course it was your intent all along to provoke such reactions from those people?