Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

buglawton

BarleyGB wrote: »

• Interest rate remains at historic low, with the Bank Of England having to reverse their premature and ill considered rate rise

Where did you get that? I thought that interest rates 'doubled' on 2nd Nov '17:

For the first time in more than 10 years, the Bank of England has raised interest rates. The official bank rate has been lifted from 0.25% to 0.5%, the first increase since July 2007. It is likely to rise twice more over the next three years, according to Bank of England governor Mark Carney.2 Nov 2017
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41846330

Of course this doesn't mean retail borrowing has doubled in rate, but let's be accurate!

westernpromise

vivatifosi wrote: »

It's that old argument of David Ricardo again. Countries have to identify their own competitive advantage.

It's not looking good for Scotland.

Rough_Justice

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

The eu needs to stop trying to take over the world and deal with the problems that are facing it now instead of leaving the world on a knife edge,

Regarding the highlighted above:
Don't be daft!
The EU see Trump's/USA policies as an open invitation to take the place of the USA as a global leader.
They aren't taking quite a lot of things into consideration before attempting this though, meaning that their attempts will prove costly and are doomed to failure.

Just one example being with NATO where the USA rightly says it should not subsidise the defence of wealthy Europeans, to which the EU response is "No we won't pay more! We'll build our own army then!". :wall:
Another being taxes, with USA reforms already leading to increased growth and higher employment. What do the likes of Macron, Jucker etc. want? Further tightening on taxes and increased federalisation!

The EU will again be smaller than the USA when the UK leaves and many EU politico's don't like that.
What they really want is power; look at the likes of Verhofstadt, Tusk and Juncker for evidence of EU megalomania.
Another problem they have is that their eastern members are shrinking considerably.
https://qz.com/1187819/country-ranking-worlds-fastest-shrinking-countries-are-in-eastern-europe/
Small wonder then that so many want either a "two-speed Europe" or the sort of increased federalism that it has been suggested will lead to some current member countries being booted out of the EU.
They see the EU as a superstate.
It isn't - and I (along with many, many others) don't see it ever becoming one.

westernpromise

The EU is in danger of turning into Japan in about 1650, i.e. as the rest of the world powers past it it decides the answer is sakoku: to isolate itself behind barriers, thinking to stop the clock.

I don't think it'll work. Sooner or later, such an EU's Commodore Matthew Perry will rock up and it won't be 200 years this time.

BarleyGB

buglawton wrote: »

Where did you get that? I thought that interest rates 'doubled' on 2nd Nov '17:

For the first time in more than 10 years, the Bank of England has raised interest rates. The official bank rate has been lifted from 0.25% to 0.5%, the first increase since July 2007. It is likely to rise twice more over the next three years, according to Bank of England governor Mark Carney.2 Nov 2017
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41846330

Of course this doesn't mean retail borrowing has doubled in rate, but let's be accurate!

So your argument (view) is that UK interest rates are not at a historic low? Hmm that's a strange enterpretation of the long term interest rate trend!

I'm guessing you're one of those 'experts' or someone looking for gloom in every corner.

buglawton

BarleyGB wrote: »

So your argument (view) is that UK interest rates are not at a historic low? Hmm that's a strange enterpretation of the long term interest rate trend!

I'm guessing you're one of those 'experts' or someone looking for gloom in every corner.

Um, did you have an answer to my point?

gfplux

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Unlike you I read the full article. Worth pointing out.

I did read the full article.
The additional quotes you highlight does not in anyway change my statement.

But for Brexit would this research facility with 150 jobs be located in the UK.

Herzlos

BarleyGB wrote: »

Having had to read an almost continuous dribble of negativity around Brexit, mostly clickbait claims and scare stories, im curious how any ardent remainder can continue to justify an anti Brexit stance on the basis of economics.

All the macro indicators are pretty favourable, in fact im struggling to think of any year in the last 20 where the current position and medium term prospects are so positive.

I think its important to recognise that these indications aren’t about today but are market driven and in most cases price in future risk. i.e. the argument that we’ve not left the EU yet hardly stands this test.

[*]This week Sterling has recovered to pre ‘Bexit vote’ levels and the same as it was in 2012 (despite ‘pre-Brexit Vote’ various commentators suggested that Sterling was over valued
[*]Unemployment has continued to fall while total employment breaks record levels almost every quarter
[*]UK Growth is steady and the IMF have admitted that theyre going to have to revise their projection upwards for the 3rd quarter in a row
[*]Purchaser and Supplier confidence levels is at post Credit Crisis high
[*]Manufacturing output is at 10 year record high
[*]Interest rate remains at historic low, with the Bank Of England having to reverse their premature and ill considered rate rise
[*]UK Deficit continuing to reduce
[*]Housing market price increases have stabilised
[*]FTSE100 and All Share index at record levels
[*]Net immigration (a significant concern for many voters) showing signs of reducing
[*]The war, emergency budget, households being £4300 a month worse off, back of the queue for US trade deal, recession and 15% house price collapse has not happened


Just imagine what it would be like if the other 49% (now nearer 29%) could adopt a more positive stance and make the best of it. Recognise that the Remain campaign was far more misleading the Leave and get behind the UK

How does one make the most of it? What should we do to make it a success?

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

Some of us have been living in the reality painted by the second article, not for months, not for years, but for a few decades now.

My colleagues (and sometimes my competitors) are often Indian and occasionally Chinese. The IT industry has trail blazed the use of outsourcing resource.

If I want a load of specialist IT resource, I don't go to Poland. This is no anti-Polish thing, it's because I can find far more people with the skills required in places like India.

The Remainer argument; that we are secure in our little EU club; is disingenuous. The future requires us to work out a profitable place between the USA and the emerging super economic powers.

We are lucky that we have someone like you who actually operates in the real world. We can benefit from your knowledge of what is really happening and not just empty opinion.
Your post clearly illustrates that we need people to come to Britain with the right skills.
Recent Governments have spent too much of their energy responding to Daily Mail attacks about immigration and have not made it easy to recruit skilled workers from across the world.
Even 18 months after the Brexit referendum the rules as still the same.

Finally you and I can agree that we need the skilled workers from these countries more than those countries need us.
We need their skills, they rarely need ours and they don’t really need Britains products.

Tromking

gfplux wrote: »

I did read the full article.
The additional quotes you highlight does not in anyway change my statement.

But for Brexit would this research facility with 150 jobs be located in the UK.

You’re beginning to come across as desperate.
I read the article yesterday, but isn’t the answer in the article?
JLR want to tap into the special environment in that part of the ROI and R&D will continue to be based overwhelmingly in the U.K.
You do get that successful companies expand into other countries don’t you?