Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

For further information.
This is the Q&A afterwards just under 20 minutes.
Those interested in direct, no secondary spin and no media sound bites
http://ec.europa.eu/avservices/video/player.cfm?ref=I148960&sitelang=en&lg=EN

Herzlos

Do not forget that trade the EU conducts with members that it does not have a trade deal with will also be under WTO rules. For example in trade with China, Russia, the USA etc. etc. etc.

I despair. Hopefully for the last time; noone at all is claiming trade will stop if we go WTO. We're saying trade will get more expensive, take longer and potentially be subject to quotas. None of that is a good thing.

tracey3596

Herzlos wrote: »

I despair. Hopefully for the last time; noone at all is claiming trade will stop if we go WTO. We're saying trade will get more expensive, take longer and potentially be subject to quotas. None of that is a good thing.

Oh please let it be the last time since you despair because you don't understand maybe.

There is no reason why it should necessarily get more expensive, take longer or potentially be subject to quotas.
I will put it simply.

Herzlos: We're saying EU trade will get more expensive, take longer and potentially be subject to quotas. None of that is a good thing.

But the potential to deal elsewhere which is not currently allowed and the potential to agree trade deals which is not currently allowed could reverse such expense and in fact lead to a reduction in trade costs.
That is a good thing.

tracey3596

gfplux wrote: »

For information Barnier press conference today. From the horses mouth, no secondary spin and no media sound bites.
17 minutes well worth your time.
For English simultaneous translation tap/click English just below screen in screen.

http://ec.europa.eu/avservices/video/player.cfm?ref=I148959&sitelang=en&lg=EN

In fact this is the English version.

Oh my.
All I can really say is ............ no wonder this usually takes the form of a press release!
:rotfl:
Almost seventeen minutes which I will never see again for what in honesty amounts to two minutes worth of semi-worthwhile info, if that.

gfplux

The new trade agreement with the EU after Britain has left is and should be a NEUTRAL subject.
Do I hear yes? Of course it is.

I have mentioned before that British people and Industry will need to lobby the British trade negotiators for their jobs and Industry to be treated favourably.
A trade agreement normally takes many years to complete as it covers so many, many things. This one might concluded quickly.
To illustrate and understand my point read the following about British lobsters.
http://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/news/hull-east-yorkshire-news/new-lobster-markets-needed-protect-947095#ICID=sharebar_facebook

In a trade agreement between two Country’s often one side might have a special interest let us say in Lobsters. That country might try to impose import duty’s on the other country’s lobsters.
When Britain is negotiating with the EU on the other side of the table are 27 Country’s who might have a BIG interest in Lobsters. Perhaps their lobster industry donate to a political party, shocking yes but it happens. They might therefore want to limit competition from British Lobsters.

So I urge any poster who has an interest in any British industry to do what they can to help make that industry’s voice heard.
This is not a one way street. If for example the British Lobster Industry has some powerful friends EU27 lobsters could find themselves subject to a high import tax when coming in to the UK.

Who knows what can happen. These trade deals have often resulted in some industry’s being hurt badly just because of the law of unintended consequences.

Once again. This is a neutral subject. I hope this post is taken in the spirit in which it is intended.

gfplux

tracey3596 wrote: »

Oh my.
All I can really say is ............ no wonder this usually takes the form of a press release!
:rotfl:
Almost seventeen minutes which I will never see again for what in honesty amounts to two minutes worth of semi-worthwhile info, if that.

With the Q&A it’s about 36 minutes. I am sorry you saw it as a waste of your time.
We are all influenced by getting our news second/third hand having been spun and put into sound bites.
My point is we should be listening to the raw source data more often so we can make our own mind up about what we heard.

Just want to say sorry again. I had only good intentions.

System

In the last 2 pages;
- Every single brexit voter voted on the basis that they wanted to leave the single market
- 90% of trade that takes place is done under wto terms.

I dunno about you guys but I can't wait to see what the next page brings.

Rinoa

Herzlos wrote: »

I despair. Hopefully for the last time; noone at all is claiming trade will stop if we go WTO. We're saying trade will get more expensive, take longer and potentially be subject to quotas. None of that is a good thing.

There's nothing particularly unique about anything traded with the EU. Other than certain foods that may only grow in southern Europe, we basically sell each other very similar products.

In the Commons today, responding to a question about food becoming more expensive after Brexit, Michael Gove gave the example of Cheddar cheese. We sell Ireland £320m of cheddar, they sell us £380 of cheddar. With WTO tariffs at 40%, we would simply eat the cheese we currently sell to Ireland.

This same scenario would be repeated on myriad products under WTO.

System

tracey3596 wrote: »

Nothing I've seen disproves that 90% statement TBH.

Well that's because you didn't bother reading the link you posted.

tracey3596 wrote: »

Global trade includes more than the imports & exports you quote so your alleged proof is actually not what you seem to think it is. Read the WTO definitions of what comprises global trade.

Global trade, also known as international trade, is simply the import and export of goods and services across international boundaries.

tracey3596 wrote: »

Any way, you can quibble over a few % if you want to but it's largely irrelevant.
What is relevant is that the EU share has been shrinking and is forecast to shrink even further.

90% vs c45% - hardly quibbling over a few %

tracey3596 wrote: »

Do not forget that trade the EU conducts with members that it does not have a trade deal with will also be under WTO rules. For example in trade with China, Russia, the USA etc. etc. etc.

I'll try not to.

Herzlos

Rinoa wrote: »

There's nothing particularly unique about anything traded with the EU. Other than certain foods that may only grow in southern Europe, we basically sell each other very similar products.

In the Commons today, responding to a question about food becoming more expensive after Brexit, Michael Gove gave the example of Cheddar cheese. We sell Ireland £320m of cheddar, they sell us £380 of cheddar. With WTO tariffs at 40%, we would simply eat the cheese we currently sell to Ireland.

This same scenario would be repeated on myriad products under WTO.

So we're fine as long as we don't mind having less choice?

That said, WTO terms out make a lot of difference to our buying habits.