Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

There's nothing particularly unique about anything traded with the EU. Other than certain foods that may only grow in southern Europe, we basically sell each other very similar products.

In the Commons today, responding to a question about food becoming more expensive after Brexit, Michael Gove gave the example of Cheddar cheese. We sell Ireland £320m of cheddar, they sell us £380 of cheddar. With WTO tariffs at 40%, we would simply eat the cheese we currently sell to Ireland.

This same scenario would be repeated on myriad products under WTO.

That’s an extraordinary statistic.
Britain sells £320 million to ROI of Chedder
Britain imports £380 from ROI of Chedder

I assume these are ex factory prices.
I don’t know who this shows in a good light.
As a Chedder lover this is a subject of great interest to me.

Can we be sure that Michael Gove has not misspoken. Do any other posters have a view on this.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

We shouldn’t joke about such a serious subject but please forgive me.

Britain “I want 24 months”
EU “I offer 21 months”
Britain “I want 24 Months”
EU “I offer 21 months”
Britain “OK let’s compromise on 21 months”

About time this discussion was moved to the MoneySaversArms. Of your posts amount to little more than a constant barrage of derision. With no attempt to take a balanced view. On any aspect of the exit.

Tonights news from the HoC.

MPs vote 319 to 294 MPs for government amendments setting the UK's exit date from the EU as 11pm on 29 March 2019,

Herzlos

That's a lot better than being out on April 1st. That was a colossaly stupid idea.

vivatifosi

https://ahdb.org.uk/brexit/In answer to gfplux re cheese and dairy. According to a report by the AHDB re Brexit, approx 30% of our exports go to Ireland, but 60% of theirs come to us. We also export substantial amounts to France and Germany, but only 1% of our exports are outside of the EU, significantly lower than Ireland.

In the event that we need to source our products elsewhere, the report found that we are pretty much self sufficient in milk and could order additional cheddar from Canada and butter from New Zealand, however the flipside of this is that these are very efficient competitive leaders who would impact on our domestic industry.

In terms of new markets for our producers, China is the goal, but also countries like Russia and Mexico, though by and large these are short shelf life projects so are easier to sell a few hundred miles away than a few thousand.

Thanks for asking the question gfplux, it was an interesting half hour read.

ETA.. here's a link for the website:
https://ahdb.org.uk/brexit/

There are numerous reports there and it is a great resource for info on the impact of Brexit on the dairy industry. The one that I read was the one from Jan 2017 on dairy, but there are others, including an industry impact assessment.

The AHDB is the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, which is a statutory levy board serving those industries.

Moby

tracey3596 wrote: »

Oh please let it be the last time since you despair because you don't understand maybe.

There is no reason why it should necessarily get more expensive, take longer or potentially be subject to quotas.
I will put it simply.
But the potential to deal elsewhere which is not currently allowed and the potential to agree trade deals which is not currently allowed could reverse such expense and in fact lead to a reduction in trade costs.
That is a good thing.

No its not. Its just wishful thinking. Speak to anyone who has experience in the area of trade at Govmt level and they will explain what a hazardous path we have chosen.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-christine-lagarde-brexit-uk-economy-assessment-forecasts-eu-referendum-forecasts-a8119886.html

People who know what they are talking about don't use wooly terms such as potential, they talk about realities:-
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/brexit-eu-what-canada-free-trade-deal-mean-uk-economy-city-london-michel-barnier-a8120656.html

Tromking

gfplux wrote: »

We shouldn’t joke about such a serious subject but please forgive me.

Britain “I want 24 months”
EU “I offer 21 months”
Britain “I want 24 Months”
EU “I offer 21 months”
Britain “OK let’s compromise on 21 months”

From my recollection, TM suggested in her Florence speech a transition period of UP to 2 years. Lest we forget however that nothing is agreed till everything is agreed.

System

Rinoa wrote: »

In the Commons today, responding to a question about food becoming more expensive after Brexit, Michael Gove gave the example of Cheddar cheese. We sell Ireland £320m of cheddar, they sell us £380 of cheddar. With WTO tariffs at 40%, we would simply eat the cheese we currently sell to Ireland.

Michael Gove doesn't really know what he's talking about. There's a £700m trade in cheddar and he's looked at that, assumed he knows better than the market, and distills it into some simplistic nonsense.

Anyone can take one number from another and get a result. It's like the question 'what is the meaning of life' and the answer being 42.

gfplux

vivatifosi wrote: »

In answer to gfplux re cheese and dairy. According to a report by the AHDB re Brexit, approx 30% of our exports go to Ireland, but 60% of theirs come to us. We also export substantial amounts to France and Germany, but only 1% of our exports are outside of the EU, significantly lower than Ireland.

In the event that we need to source our products elsewhere, the report found that we are pretty much self sufficient in milk and could order additional cheddar from Canada and butter from New Zealand, however the flipside of this is that these are very efficient competitive leaders who would impact on our domestic industry.

In terms of new markets for our producers, China is the goal, but also countries like Russia and Mexico, though by and large these are short shelf life projects so are easier to sell a few hundred miles away than a few thousand.

Thanks for asking the question gfplux, it was an interesting half hour read.

Thanks for the heads up.
I have now found this
https://ahdb.org.uk/brexit/
And this
https://ahdb.org.uk/brexit/documents/Dairy_bitesize.pdf
Amazing someone has done impact reports. I will need some time to read it all. I hope and assume no bias.

buglawton

It's good to reminded how high food tariffs are. It proves how fiercely the EU protects its internal market. Doesn't mean that permanent high tariffs are a good idea though. After all, these tariffs are just another tax on consumers, one that affects low income people most (as they spend the largest proportion of income on food).

gfplux

tracey3596 wrote: »

Oh my.
All I can really say is ............ no wonder this usually takes the form of a press release!
:rotfl:
Almost seventeen minutes which I will never see again for what in honesty amounts to two minutes worth of semi-worthwhile info, if that.

Good morning Tracey,
I have found a journalists piece covering the Barnier press conference.
This from the EU positive Politico.eu. Despite that I feel the source material gave a closer feeling of the EU’s attitude.
https://www.politico.eu/article/michel-barnier-post-brexit-transition-to-end-december-2020/?utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=c58af7aee7-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_12_21&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_10959edeb5-c58af7aee7-190026745

It a short read.