Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

cogito

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The Netherlands is governed by a 4 party coalition, which has managed to side line the Nationalist opposition. (Took 9 months to form ).

Macron has a sweeping parliamentry majority. Yet only 49% of the electorate bothered to turn out.

Merkel needs to form a coalition to survive.

There's very weak political leadership across much of Europe.

There's also a regional election in Catalonia this weekend where Opinion polls have separatists in the lead. If they win, that will probably be the end of Rajoy.

Then you have the forthcoming Italian election where Renzi's PD are tanking in the polls. 5 star are ahead (under new leadership since October) with Berlusconi's Forza Italia and Legia Nord both making headway. Each are anti-EU to a degree. Italy is in hock up to its eyeballs and needs to roll over €340bn of government debt next year. It's bonds are usually bought by Italian Banks and Italians but they have been selling under Draghi's QE programme so will they have an appetite to buy new bonds? Germany and Holland both need an interest rate rise to cool down their overheating economies but that would crucify Italy and other club med countries.

And of course, Germany is still without effective government and with SPD unable to set out their stance until mid-January because of internal wranglings, it will be February at the earliest before they have a new government - with AfD as official opposition. My guess is new elections with both Merkel and Schulz gone.

The mainstream parties are certainly paying a price for disregarding public opinion for so long.

2018 is going to be a very interesting year.

Tromking

mayonnaise wrote: »

Brexit will happen, don't worry too much about that, but for it not to be a disaster, it will need to be a very very soft one.

I also enjoyed our democracy being restored. From a parliament meekly rubber-stamping anything that had 'brexit is awesome' on it, to MP's now openly rebelling against some aspects of it, despite the intimidation and death threats.

The risk with a "very, very soft" Brexit is that it doesn't actually deliver what the referendum sought to decide or perhaps more importantly and often selfishly glossed over by Remainers, satisfy your average leave voters perception on what a vote to leave meant.
Unfortunately for remain voters, the democratic mandate delivered by the Brexit vote means that they are slaves to the perceptions of the people who voted to leave, hence the irritation amongst some of them I suppose.
Public service is a rough and tumble world, I've lost count of the times I been threatened with death or serious injury. It focuses the mind on how to deal with certain issues and you learn to adjust your actions accordingly, even if that doesn't or can't change your end decision.
I thought the debate on the Tories refusing to confirm that the European WTD will stay intact post Brexit was interesting. An issue that had been shut down as a topic of discussion in our own parliament because of our EU membership, is now thanks to Brexit being argued again. Our democracy is being restored.

mayonnaise

mrginge wrote: »

Hi mayo,

Can you put some ballpark numbers on this potential disaster please so we can all decide if you’ve got any kind of clue or are just making stuff up.

When the CBI warns of the cost to business of Hard Brexit - WTO option, are they making stuff up?
When our car manufacturing industry tells us that Hard Brexit -WTO would make their operations non-viable are they making stuff up?
When even LeaveHQ economists dismiss WTO as an option...yep, making stuff up innit? http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128
When about the whole of our business community, the job creators, the wealth generators... in other words, anyone with a bit of a stake in society warns against Hard Brexit they are... yes you guessed it...making stuff up?

'All making stuff up!' shouts mrginge from the sidelines...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Tromking wrote: »

The risk with a "very, very soft" Brexit is that it doesn't actually deliver what the referendum sought to decide or perhaps more importantly and often selfishly glossed over by Remainers, satisfy your average leave voters perception on what a vote to leave meant..

From the latest ComRes poll on this topic....

Which should be the priority for the British Government when negotiating the UK's withdrawal from the EU?

-Maintaining access to the single market so Britain can have free trade with the EU: 66%

-Restricting the freedom of movement so immigration from the EU is reduced: 31%

And also...

- 51% say they would be "satisfied" if Britain maintained access to the single market, even if it meant that EU immigration continued, compared to 45% who would be dissatisfied.

A majority of people support staying in the single market, even if it means EU immigration remains unchanged.

The 'will of the people' on this question is somewhat different to the 'will of the people' on the wholly different question asked in 2016.

mayonnaise

Tromking wrote: »

The risk with a "very, very soft" Brexit is that it doesn't actually deliver what the referendum sought to decide or perhaps more importantly and often selfishly glossed over by Remainers, satisfy your average leave voters perception on what a vote to leave meant.

Policy shouldn't be made to satisfy your average brexiteer as their numbers are dwindling rapidly according to recent polls.
And you guys should really stop trying to interprete what the vote meant. The vote meant that we need to leave the EU. Nothing more, nothing less. The 'Norway' option satisfies that mandate.
It was even touted by the Leave campaign as satisfactory.

Wouldn't it be terrible if we were really like Norway and Switzerland? Really? They're rich. They're happy. They're self-governing
Nigel Farage, Ukip leader

The Norwegian option, the EEA option, I think that it might be initally attractive for some business people
Matthew Elliot, Vote Leave chief executive

Increasingly, the Norway option looks the best for the UK
Arron Banks, Leave.EU founder

mrginge

mayonnaise wrote: »

When the CBI warns of the cost to business of Hard Brexit - WTO option, are they making stuff up?
When our car manufacturing industry tells us that Hard Brexit -WTO would make their operations non-viable are they making stuff up?
When even LeaveHQ economists dismiss WTO as an option...yep, making stuff up innit? http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128
When about the whole of our business community, the job creators, the wealth generators... in other words, anyone with a bit of a stake in society warns against Hard Brexit they are... yes you guessed it...making stuff up?

'All making stuff up!' shouts mrginge from the sidelines...

All I want to know is what numbers you consider to be a disaster. Surely it’s not that hard is it when you’ve got all those links to trawl through.

Arklight

cogito wrote: »

There's also a regional election in Catalonia this weekend where Opinion polls have separatists in the lead. If they win, that will probably be the end of Rajoy.

Then you have the forthcoming Italian election where Renzi's PD are tanking in the polls. 5 star are ahead (under new leadership since October) with Berlusconi's Forza Italia and Legia Nord both making headway. Each are anti-EU to a degree. Italy is in hock up to its eyeballs and needs to roll over €340bn of government debt next year. It's bonds are usually bought by Italian Banks and Italians but they have been selling under Draghi's QE programme so will they have an appetite to buy new bonds? Germany and Holland both need an interest rate rise to cool down their overheating economies but that would crucify Italy and other club med countries.

And of course, Germany is still without effective government and with SPD unable to set out their stance until mid-January because of internal wranglings, it will be February at the earliest before they have a new government - with AfD as official opposition. My guess is new elections with both Merkel and Schulz gone.

The mainstream parties are certainly paying a price for disregarding public opinion for so long.

2018 is going to be a very interesting year.

Is this the level of straw clutching to which Brexiteers have descended?

You're like the Doomsday cultist standing on Oxford Steet with all the previous years the end of the world was meant to have come, crossed out.


EU doomed in 1987, 1994, 1999, no wait - 2004, 2007, 2012, 2016, no 2017, no wait 2019 for sure, no wait it'll never last til 2020...


The UK is looking a lot less likely to survive intact than Europe is thanks to you lot and your vandalism.

Tromking

mayonnaise wrote: »

And you guys should really stop trying to interpret what the vote meant. The vote meant that we need to leave the EU. Nothing more, nothing less.

I think both sides of the argument are battling to decide what Brexit means.
The problem for you is that you lost and I won, my view carries more weight and political legitimacy than yours.
The political class knows the ramifications for our democracy if they suddenly design a Brexit that suits your world view and not mine.
Ignore the 52% at your peril.

Tromking

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

From the latest ComRes poll on this topic....

Which should be the priority for the British Government when negotiating the UK's withdrawal from the EU?

-Maintaining access to the single market so Britain can have free trade with the EU: 66%

-Restricting the freedom of movement so immigration from the EU is reduced: 31%

And also...

- 51% say they would be "satisfied" if Britain maintained access to the single market, even if it meant that EU immigration continued, compared to 45% who would be dissatisfied.

A majority of people support staying in the single market, even if it means EU immigration remains unchanged.

The 'will of the people' on this question is somewhat different to the 'will of the people' on the wholly different question asked in 2016.

You do know there'a a marked difference between 'access to' and 'being in' the single market don't you?
Nothing has changed, the UK Government are duty bound to take us out of the EU in March 2019.

Matt_L

mayonnaise wrote: »

Policy shouldn't be made to satisfy your average brexiteer as their numbers are dwindling rapidly according to recent polls.
And you guys should really stop trying to interprete what the vote meant. The vote meant that we need to leave the EU. Nothing more, nothing less. The 'Norway' option satisfies that mandate.
It was even touted by the Leave campaign as satisfactory.

Ahh more dishonesty..