Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

Long term, the UK is leaving the EU. All this discussion is about the rate at which we exit, and what bribes we have to pay to manage the exit.

Some in the EU27 will be keen to decouple the UK anyway, so that they can pursue their EU project unhindered.

We seem to forget that there are other challenges the EU faces besides Brexit. Timing may yet play a part.

I agree. The chances that Britain will not continue with the complex process of leaving the EU are very small.
However during the next few months that demanding process might be disturbing to some.
Britain wants a period of transition but the price for it might be painfully high for some. Witness the things said by a couple of cabinet ministers in the last couple of days.

The discussion over a possible trade deal will start at the end of March but Britain has to come to the table with some firm proposals or so the EU say. As I understand it those discussions have started in Cabinet today/tomorrow so there should be plenty of time for David Davis to arrive at the first meeting with those proposals. I wonder if the British people will see them before that meeting?

I also agree that the EU27 want this whole matter sorted ASAP. I imagine the EU want to minimise any of their trade being disrupted but surely they don't want this to drag on and on.
Just like Britain, the EU need to get on with the day job.
We live in interesting times.

kabayiri

Moby wrote: »

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/
Major poll coming out tomorrow. Biggest gap between remain and leave.
No wonder the Brexiteers don't want that second referendum!

You don't know what terms the EU would demand for us staying in.

Euro perhaps, or a minority role as a Luke warm participant...

Why should they trust us now, especially on migration.

Ballard

Moby wrote: »

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/
Major poll coming out tomorrow. Biggest gap between remain and leave.
No wonder the Brexiteers don't want that second referendum!

It doesn’t really matter about the polls now as were hurtling towards the exit. It would need a major independent poll to show more like 70% want to stay for remaining even to be considered. That’s not going to happen.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Britain wants a period of transition but the price for it might be painfully high for some.

Wouldn't the EU likewise benefit from an orderly transition? Far from a one way street. Hopefully common sense will prevail and push political agendas aside.

We live in interesting times.

Brexit is a side show for the EU. Plenty of issues have been kicked into the long grass. At some point there'll be back on the agenda. The rise of extreme views doesn't auger well.

Herzlos

Ballard wrote: »

It doesn’t really matter about the polls now as were hurtling towards the exit. It would need a major independent poll to show more like 70% want to stay for remaining even to be considered. That’s not going to happen.

We're getting closer to it by the week. Of course the leavers will claim any such poll is biased or fraudulent.

Ballard

Herzlos wrote: »

We're getting closer to it by the week. Of course the leavers will claim any such poll is biased or fraudulent.

Too many influential people have too much to lose if we don't go through with it. We're leaving.

fewgroats

They will say that the so-called poll was created by "experts" and that Brexiters were given the indignity of only voting once.

How long can we run by these control freaks?

vivatifosi

kabayiri wrote: »

Long term, the UK is leaving the EU. All this discussion is about the rate at which we exit, and what bribes we have to pay to manage the exit.

Some in the EU27 will be keen to decouple the UK anyway, so that they can pursue their EU project unhindered.

We seem to forget that there are other challenges the EU faces besides Brexit. Timing may yet play a part.

One of the things that fascinates me about the Brexit debate is how you can effectively be in the opposite camp then read a post that's 95% aligned with your own views. That's how I felt reading your post.

One of the reasons that I voted remain is that in this scenario I dont think that there will be first mover advantage as a result of Brexit, however i can completely see the differences within the EU. In or out, it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

cogito

Rinoa wrote: »

9 countries have youth unemployment higher than 20%

Hungary, Poland and Czech republic are at war with EU over immigration. Others aren't far behind.

Euro doesn't work due to Germany being too competitive.

Austria voted for a fascist government.

Italy's bank are bust.

Just give it time.

Except for the comment about Austria, I agree with you. By no stretch of the imagination can Austria's government be called fascist. Right wing, yes, but fascist, no.

Last time Austria voted for a right wing government led by Jorg Haider, the EU went bananas and imposed sanctions. It will be interesting to see how they respond this time. They no longer have the strength to do anything other than wring their hands.

kabayiri

vivatifosi wrote: »

One of the things that fascinates me about the Brexit debate is how you can effectively be in the opposite camp then read a post that's 95% aligned with your own views. That's how I felt reading your post.

One of the reasons that I voted remain is that in this scenario I dont think that there will be first mover advantage as a result of Brexit, however i can completely see the differences within the EU. In or out, it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Brexit was genuinely a value judgement for me. You weigh up the pros and cons and see which way the scales tip.

But....one core thing for me is that the opinion and vote of the individual citizen should still count IMO. I still believe that, which is why I dislike the attempt to denigrate individual votes because of how old people are, or whether they had University education.

If we do stay in, we might as well just do away with things like votes and elections, because they will count for nothing. The educated political class can just govern by focus groups and opinion polls instead.