Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Tromking

Rough_Justice wrote: »

I'm not sure I'm entirely enamoured that you have relieved yourself but still, if it makes you happy.

Can you say "Out means out" in Polish?
"Out oznacza out".
"Poland Risks Being the EU’s Rogue State" says Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-10/forget-brexit-poland-risks-being-the-eu-s-real-rogue-state

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/poland-eus-real-problem/

http://www.thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/339216,Sovereign-free-democratic-Poland-is-our-aim-ruling-party-chief

I wonder how long after we've left, Brussels will remember with fondness the reluctant Brits who rather than break the rules took the more honourable decision to leave the club.

Rinoa

ilovehouses wrote: »

What happened to WTO here we come?

I thought she made it abundantly clear 'no deal' is still an option.

Still so many opportunities for trade talks breaking down.

Here's hoping.

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

We don't control it now, why will we control it later?

It's very naive to assume we'll go full WTO just to avoid fom, so we'll have fom if the eu tells us so. It's also the only way to satisfy both the DUP and good Friday agreement.

Perhaps Britain will control it later.

Part of the deal on the table is Citizens Rights. The British Government are going to document 3.2million EU Citizens that are resident in the UK at the end of March 2019. So from that date with the help of a few hundred extra employees working in the Home Office that registration will take place.
The time frame might well fit in to any transition period say up to end 2020.
From then on any movement by these EU citizens can be monitored at all ports of entry/exit by the hundreds of extra border "police" who will have been recruited and trained during the transition period.
So leaving the EU will trigger the ability of Britain to control its borders.
To ensure this works properly I imagine everyone passing through the border will be checked probably by the UK-ESTA and the EU-ESTA.

gfplux

I am assuming no assessment document exists of the effect of WTO terms if there is no deal.
What do the 200 plus civil servants employed in David Davis department actually do all day?

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

I am assuming no assessment document exists of the effect of WTO terms if there is no deal.
What do the 200 plus civil servants employed in David Davis department actually do all day?

You're starting to see a lot EU exit analyst jobs appearing (not the right term but the gist is there).

Thing is, companies are in the market for the same resources. I can only see the price of such resource going up

It feels a bit like the DotCom rush all over again.

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

Davis doesn't trust the advice of experts or economic forecasts.

When faced with a choice of WTO or an alternative trade deal the analysts won't need to do much more than flip a coin and help him tell the difference between heads and tails.

I'd do the job. I'd take his money. Wouldn't bother me whether he listened to the information offered or not.

phillw

mrginge wrote: »

You seem to be unable to grasp the concept that being against FoM is not the same as being against immigration.

So you want to impose immigration on people rather than them being free? I find this position to be more odious. "We want immigrants but we get to judge you first. You're ok, but your brother looks kinda funny."

kabayiri wrote: »

Talking to people in the Polish office they are also less than keen about having to accept incomers there. Are they xenophobic as well?

Yes. It's a human trait that all people have to some degree and requires effort to overcome. Some people try harder than others.

Rinoa

ilovehouses wrote: »

You wouldn't hope for trade talks with anyone else to breakdown other than with the hated EU. Might I suggest you've lost the plot?

For many reasons the EU will never give us a good deal and it will be subject to conditions which will prevent trade deals with others.

We haven't even started yet and our joint agreement on current WTO quotas is already alienating prospective future trade deals.

We're just wasting time when we should be preparing for life after EU.

phillw

Rinoa wrote: »

We haven't even started yet and our joint agreement on current WTO quotas is already alienating prospective future trade deals.

What agreement? If nothing is agreed until everything is agreed then surely the quotas they are willing to give us are included in that?

ukcarper wrote: »

I would have though you would understand the difference between controlled immigration and no immigration.

That is the xenophobes wet dream. Letting all the pretty women in from eastern europe while keeping out the attractive men.

Rinoa wrote: »

Once again we hear today from TM: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed."

Just in case there are any remainers still in doubt she continued:

There is no doubt, she's proved herself to be a liar who can't be trusted. So how can we trust anything she says? I'd tell her that UK isn't getting any WTO quotas, no deal, go starve. I'd be a bit unhappy about that because I'd starve too, but I'd totally blame TM for it.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

The larger and closer that economies are the more they trade with each other. The smaller and farther away that they are the less they trade with one another. This well-attested phenomenon explains the intensity of trade in services as well as in goods. That is a crucial reason why in 2016 Britain exported more in goods and services to small yet prosperous – and above all close – Ireland than to distant China, India and Brazil combined.

Economic gravity explains why leaving the EU is potentially so harmful for the British economy. Britain is set on a course that will hurt its trade with the world’s biggest trading bloc, which conveniently happens to be on its doorstep. Economic gravity also explains why it is unrealistic to expect new trade deals after Brexit with more distant and often poorer countries to compensate for the losses in trade with Europe.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-wallace-gravity-commentary/commentary-in-brexit-britain-economic-gravity-will-take-its-toll-idUSKBN1E52DB

So how should Britain adapt to being poorer after Brexit?

Less money for services? Benefits? Infrastructure? The NHS?