Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Tammykitty

movilogo wrote: »

Policies should be based on how overall population of a country gets benefitted and not to place a small subset of population.

If NI stays in EU then Scotland, London all would ask for the same. Hey, I can even ask my house's ground floor to stay in EU and upper floors out of EU

Customs union importance is overplayed. UK is net importer from EU. So if EU can raise trade barriers so do we.

I still think Ireland should leave EU and solve the problem in a creative way

NI staying in the customs union isn't about barriers to trade etc, its about a physical border - both North and South (And especially North) will suffer if a physical borders to go up again. The economy will suffer, cross border trade will suffer, local cross border roads will have to be closed again, personnel manning the border may be in danger, tourism will suffer, and people living in border areas will be massively inconvenienced.


My friend lives in NI, she is about a 1 min drive (15 mins walk) from her children's school, a shop, pub, restaurant, petrol station, hair dressers and lots of local amenities. However all of the above are actually in RoI, if a hard border returns to NI/RoI, then this crossing is likely to be closed again (as its impossible to maintain 300+ border crossings), and she will have to drive round in circles for about 15 mins, and then likely queue at the border etc. This is just one example of how convenient the open border is.
There is also 1000's of workers commute across the border every day.


I like the suggest of Ireland leaving the EU as I support Brexit and would definitely support an Irexit too

Filo25

Unfortunately for any fantasy of Ireland leaving the EU to make our life easier, they are very happy to stay.

mayonnaise

buglawton wrote: »

Which coincided exactly with Thatcher getting in as PM...

..who happened to be one of the main proponents of the Single Market.

buglawton

Herzlos wrote: »

Customs barriers will hurt everyone, potentially the importers more.

Delays can mean factories sitting idle, food spoiling before it gets to stores, inventory cost increases.

Customs barriers also mean transaction costs - compliance paperwork, handling fees, and overhead costs - customs agents, warehousing, inspections etc.

Everyone loses from losing the customs union, but we are worse off as we EU trade is a larger percentage of our trade than it is of the EU's trade. If costs go up too far, both sides will look for alternative sources of stuff, and in again in this case the EU wins - it has more trading agreements, purchasing power and better logistic links to most of the world.

And that's the exciting part: As soon as the UK has the unfettered opportunity to replace EU goods with the nearest substitutes that are easier/cheaper to buy and import, we'll see a) EU industry having to compete - shock, horror! - with the rest of the world better and b) EU business leaders leaning on their EU mandarin overlords to make trade with geographical neighbours easier when there's no reason not to.

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

And that's the exciting part: As soon as the UK has the unfettered opportunity to replace EU goods with the nearest substitutes that are easier/cheaper to buy and import, we'll see a) EU industry having to compete - shock, horror! - with the rest of the world better and b) EU business leaders leaning on their EU mandarin overlords to make trade with geographical neighbours easier when there's no reason not to.

IF any of it is cheaper or easier to import. All a hard Brexit will do is (initially) make EU goods as hard to get through customs as everyone else. The EU will still have the advantage of being on our doorstep. A truck of chickens leaving Spain will still get to the UK (after a couple of days delay) much earlier than a container leaving China. It likely means a wholesale shift from fresh goods to frozen in either case.

There will be benefits once we negotiate other trade deals, and some cost advantages for places that are near the EU boundary that can compete on time (where required), like Northwest Africa (Morocco, etc).

ukcarper

Arklight wrote: »

People who actually remember the War and were affected by it voted Remain for the most part.


It's the boomer generations who seem afflicted with this peculiar rose tinted glasses view of three day weeks, fuel shortages, and Britain being the sick man of Europe.

That about as inaccurate as your normal posts

Moby

ukcarper wrote: »

It’s not surprising that the DUP are defending the union, but what I find hard to understand is what good will it do ROI if they prevent a deal and force UK to leave on WTO rules.

ROI with the backing of the other 26 fully expect the UK to accept their terms. For instance David Davis is today talking up the possibility of all the UK accepting EU regulations permanently in any future deal. It's the simplest option but of course it means we'll be accepting EU regulations on everything we import but due to brexit will have no say on what those regulations are.

Filo25

Moby wrote: »

ROI with the backing of the other 26 fully expect the UK to accept their terms. For instance David Davis is today talking up the possibility of all the UK accepting EU regulations permanently in any future deal. It's the simplest option but of course it means we'll be accepting EU regulations on everything we import but due to brexit will have no say on what those regulations are.

Yep that is really the only way to keep the DUP onside, unfortunately it will enrage the hard Brexit wing of the Tory party even more. Ultimately leaves us being a rule taker and would stop the deregulation agenda that some undoubtedly have.

Davis is trying to dance around the issue a bit claiming it will get to the same result as EU regulations without necessarily mirroring them, but let's see how long that would last in Phase 2 of the negotiations

Rinoa

mayonnaise wrote: »

..who happened to be one of the main proponents of the Single Market.

Your graph shows continued improvements up until the early nineties before it starts to level off.

The single market began in 1992.

Moby

Eric_the_half_a_bee wrote: »

In 1979, Arlene Foster's dad, a part time RUC policeman, was shot in the head by the IRA.
In 1987, Jeremy Corbyn stood for a minute's silence to honour 8 members of the IRA killed by the SAS while trying to murder a group of RUC policemen.

Hell will freeze over before Foster gives Corbyn a chance of gaining power.

I agree Arlene Foster is pursuing her own agenda not the best interests of the UK.