Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

Now the dust has settled and May is back in London what is the way forward to phase two.
Do we blame the DUP for killing the deal on phase one or actually did May play the DUP so we could now blame them.
The majority who voted to remain (in norther Ireland) have just had a prosperous future snatched from their hands. Surely even "some" supporters of the DUP are not so hard line that prosperity does not tempt them?

ukcarper

Arklight wrote: »

Brexit boomers want young to take pay cut to enforce Brexit. Young want pensions slashed to halt process.

http://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/new-poll-reveals-generations-prepared-to-sell-each-other-out-over-brexit_uk_5a24f71de4b03350e0b7a8cd?31b&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

They'll both get their wish.

You do realise that very few boomers are over 65, the people you hate are those born during and before WW2.

ukcarper

Moby wrote: »

The trouble is that the DUP’s priority isn’t to do the best thing for Northern Ireland, but to ‘Defend the Union’. And in the perceived zero-sum game of NI politics that means the Republic of Ireland has to be seen to be doing badly. So even a hint of concession or that the other side has ‘won’ has to be stamped on.
Remember that the DUP didn’t even back the Good Friday agreement (they won’t even call it that), though they were quick to take advantages of its benefits. So they will prefer to strike attitudes rather than work for what is best. Their response is emotional rather than practical.
In that they are like the more fanatical Brexit supporters of course – it’s all about what makes them and their voters feel good, rather than what actually works in the real world. Of course those indulging themselves this way, do so in the belief that they are not going to suffer the consequences of their actions in any case – in the case of the DUP that the subsidies from rUK wil continue. How much of our money are the tories prepared to pay them to avoid facing Corbyn at the polls?

It’s not surprising that the DUP are defending the union, but what I find hard to understand is what good will it do ROI if they prevent a deal and force UK to leave on WTO rules.

movilogo

Didn't DUP do the right thing, by treating whole of UK as single unity rather than keeping NI in EU effectively (what TM proposed)?

If no deal is made UK can trade using WTO rules.

Rinoa

They'll probably be able to put something together that placates the DUP. Citizens rights is a bigger problem with EU wanting ECJ rulings (won't happen).

Thereafter trade talks have multiple scenarios where the EU will want deals 60/40 in their favour which (quite rightly) will outrage the tory right.

Still every chance for a no deal. Full steam ahead to WTO.

mayonnaise

ukcarper wrote: »

It’s not surprising that the DUP are defending the union, but what I find hard to understand is what good will it do ROI if they prevent a deal and force UK to leave on WTO rules.

Because every Tom, Richard and Harry (apart from some blowhards whose voice is becoming increasingly irrelevant) knows the WTO option is a myth. The myth being that WTO is some kind of ready-made global trade agreement with defined quotas and tariffs where we can just walk into after Brexit.

We'll be staying in the Customs Union, guaranteed. Maybe not in name, but our political classes can always try to save face by calling it a "regulatory customs alignment union".

Arklight

Theresa May’s Brexit strategy is in disarray after the Irish Prime Minister dramatically accused her of reneging on an agreement that would have ended the deadlock in the talks.

On a day of drama, the Prime Minister pulled the plug on a deal on the Irish border after it was rejected by the Democratic Unionist Party which props her up in power – triggering claims she is being “held to ransom”.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ireland-border-deal-uk-latest-updates-brexit-eu-withdrawal-dup-dublin-republic-a8091326.html
May is nearing a vote of no confidence now. The Tories are incapable of governing.
A competent administration would be struggling with Brexit. The omnishambles of this government is proving itself lost at sea.

Filo25

Arklight wrote: »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ireland-border-deal-uk-latest-updates-brexit-eu-withdrawal-dup-dublin-republic-a8091326.html
May is nearing a vote of no confidence now. The Tories are incapable of governing.
A competent administration would be struggling with Brexit. The omnishambles of this government is proving itself lost at sea.

If she can't get a deal I think she is in trouble, stuck in limbo on this one for now.

More likely to have a leadership challenge than vote of no confidence though, there is no way the Tories want to fight another GE under May after her last disastrous performance.

If the Tories go for Hard Brexit leadership and push the WTO line though, good luck getting that approach through parliament.

Even an election wouldn't solve this mess, Labour don't have any answers that the parliamentary party is united around either.

Eric_the_half_a_bee

Arklight wrote: »

May is nearing a vote of no confidence now.

In 1979, Arlene Foster's dad, a part time RUC policeman, was shot in the head by the IRA.
In 1987, Jeremy Corbyn stood for a minute's silence to honour 8 members of the IRA killed by the SAS while trying to murder a group of RUC policemen.

Hell will freeze over before Foster gives Corbyn a chance of gaining power.

Tammykitty

ukcarper wrote: »

It’s not surprising that the DUP are defending the union, but what I find hard to understand is what good will it do ROI if they prevent a deal and force UK to leave on WTO rules.

RoI don't want a hard border, and any deal that results in a hard border, will be vetoed, in the hope of a better deal, knowing full well that worst case scenario is a hard border under WTO rules.


I deal with a hard border or WTO rules - it doesn't make much difference from a RoI perspective.


I live in Northern Ireland and cross the border at least once a week - the border doesn't really exist currently, the only time any checks happen is the occasional bus gets pulled in and passports/visas checked.


I also remember the days of the old border and he army checkpoints, the queues and the searches, and many of the border routes closed off, as it was impossible to police 300+ border crossings.


NI had been offered a deal that would probably result in massive improvements in our economy, and give us the best of both worlds, but it has currently been blocked by the DUP, because instead of wanting what is best for NI and what could drastically improve the lives of the people of NI, their main concern is defending the union.


What they should realize, is that this deal is what will defend the union in the longer term, Unionism has lost its majority in NI, nationalism doesn't have the majority either, that means that it is the sensible middle that hold the balance of power - and they would probably vote for what is best economically - and if NI were given this special status, and it attracted significant inward investment, this sensible middle in the event of a border poll, will vote to maintain the status quo, as it would be recognized as the reason for growing successful economy.


By blocking the deal, and the north leaving the customs union and single market along with the rest of the UK, will just speed up the process towards a United Ireland, a hard border could screw Northern Ireland and further wreck our economy, and in the event of a border poll this would result in the "sensible middle" voting for a UI and re-entering the EU.


(For the avoidance of doubt - I am pro Brexit and am an Irish Nationalist - even if some of what I have said above doesn't support this stance, I am looking at the situation through the eyes of others!)