Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

posh*spice

vivatifosi wrote: »

We can't go to the WTO if we don't have a government. My comments were jotted down quickly with the facts known to me. The Irish government (and the UK government and EU) will be doing detailed scenario planning. They clearly believe as a result of such scenario planning that it is worth taking the position that they are taking.

My quick "back of a fag packet" version is an attempt at teasing out why they are Taking that position. There could be other/different reasons, but they clearly think it is worthwhile or they wouldn't be doing it.

WTO is the default position, it is what happens between countries when there is no FTA. It is what happens in March 2019 if there is no FTA. That's why everything Liam Fox is doing at the WTO is more important than what Davies is doing. It doesn't make any difference if there is a government. Germany has no government- it probably won't have one until Feb.


Do you really think the DUP and the Cons will let Labour win a GE and potentially annex NI? That's not going to happen. It's not going to happen because the Tories won't let it happen- irregardless of the DUP.

posh*spice

......As I said I don't understand the RoI position.

Rinoa

mayonnaise wrote: »

It's always good practice to read your linked-to articles before posting them, Rinoa.

Property bubbles are symptomatic of an overheating economy.

As the FT intimates "German Economy faces risk of overheating"

Moby

posh*spice wrote: »

Also, last few polls have shown a small Tory lead, so there's no guarantee that Labour will win next election even if it were right now, particularly if The Cons change leader. Voters still don't trust Labor on the economy- rightly so imho.

Yep perhaps Damien Green could do the job:rotfl:

Moby

Rinoa wrote: »

Property bubbles are symptomatic of an overheating economy.

As the FT intimates "German Economy faces risk of overheating"

The brexiteers have always been envious of the performance of the German economy. Any piece of bad news is pounced on and amplified as a sign of the collapse of the EU....meanwhile the horrors of the state of our own country and future projections get ignored....very strange.

vivatifosi

posh*spice wrote: »

WTO is the default position, it is what happens between countries when there is no FTA. It is what happens in March 2019 if there is no FTA. That's why everything Liam Fox is doing at the WTO is more important than what Davies is doing. It doesn't make any difference if there is a government. Germany has no government- it probably won't have one until Feb.


Do you really think the DUP and the Cons will let Labour win a GE and potentially annex NI? That's not going to happen. It's not going to happen because the Tories won't let it happen- irregardless of the DUP.

With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, the Tories really shouldn't have called the election and put themselves in such a ludicrous position. But can I see the government fall? Potentially yes. I hope it doesn't happen, but it could.

I think that when the chips are down, the DUP will choose a situation that keeps N Ireland part of the UK over anything to do with party politics. If the UK looks for a fudge involving a border in the Irish Sea, that would be like an existential crisis to the DUP, which is why I think at that point the alliance would fall. It's asking too much of them. Way above asking the Lib Dems to approve a change to tuition fees. But look what that did to them.

Rough_Justice

Moby wrote: »

The brexiteers have always been envious of the performance of the German economy. Any piece of bad news is pounced on and amplified as a sign of the collapse of the EU....meanwhile the horrors of the state of our own country and future projections get ignored....very strange.

Show us where Brexiteers have been "envious of the performance of the German economy"?

Projections ignored? Hardly surprising when there are no horrors and the projections so far have proven dramatically incorrect.
Oh, the horror of over 300,000 new jobs being created. The horror of increasing manufacturing and increasing exports. The horror of increased inward investment and continued growth.
Yep, truly a horrible state for the UK to be in.

Tromking

posh*spice wrote: »

......As I said I don't understand the RoI position.

As you know they don’t have a position as an individual sovereign state, if they did they’d opt for the continuance of the common travel area and close economic links with the UK that they’ve always enjoyed.
Dublin is expected to be a good soldier and make its own people suffer in order to protect the EU dream.

Rough_Justice

Regarding Northern Ireland, their TUV leader Jim Allister is saying what I have seen some suggest in these threads.
Which is that

If there is no deal, World Trade Organisation rules apply and under EU treaties, Mr Varadkar will have to start constructing the border he says he doesn't want.

"He will also have to police it too, because he is responsible for collecting EU tariffs on imports. So the very people ranting about no border could end up providing it. What an irony that would be."

The bit directly before that quote has been suggested here before too.

"Mr Tusk and Mr Varadkar need to be very careful as to where they manoeuvre themselves. If they overplay their hand and there is no deal, the Republic will be the biggest loser, with the EU not far behind.

"The trade deficit of both in respect of the UK means both need a deal more than we in the UK do."

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/brexit-dublin-will-be-big-loser-if-it-overplays-hand-and-theres-no-eu-deal-tuvs-allister-36372035.html

Herzlos

posh*spice wrote: »

Nobody can stop us going to WTO - it's the default position- it's what happens when there is no deal. Ditto, Nobody can make the uk create a hard border.

If there is no movement to trade talks soon the UK AND the EU MUST prepare for no deal and the EU must prepare for getting no money from the UK.

Will brexiteers be happy taking back control of their borders by leaving our biggest land border wide open? What about all those migrants that can cross?