Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

mayonnaise

Cakeguts wrote: »

I am watching the immigration figures published recently. Immigration from the EU has dropped.

Yes, obviously.
Stagnant economies don't tend to attract migration.
And with the Eurozone economies now booming, the prospects over there are so much better.

Rinoa

The EU will not accept any Brexit offer from the UK if it is unacceptable to Ireland, Donald Tusk said today.

The President of the European Council made the remarks in a speech in Ireland today, where he met with Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in Dublin.

"I came to Ireland to reassure the Taoiseach and the Irish people that the EU stands with you," he said.

"Before proposing guidelines on transition and future relations to the leaders, I will consult the Taoiseach if the UK offer is sufficient for the Irish government.

"Let me say very clearly: If the UK offer is unacceptable for Ireland, it will also be unacceptable for the EU. I realise that for some British politicians this may be hard to understand."

Lets hope TM stands firm for once.

Thrugelmir

mayonnaise wrote: »

...posted near all-time record high PMI numbers.

The EU is well behind the curve that the US, then the UK are following. ECB is inflating the Eurozone with cheap money. Still to face the cold turkey treatment when the time comes to wean the economy off monetary policy, i.e. negative interest rates.

posh*spice

I'm totally not understanding what's going on with RoI - surely the best thing for them would be to extend their veto to the end of the article 50 process and get on with trade talks?

What's with all the aggression? Are they trying to whip up anti British feelings for internsl political reasons?

posh*spice

Rinoa wrote: »

Lets hope TM stands firm for once.

What offer where they taliking about? The financial offer? The offer on the border? Both?

Wouldn't it be nice if politicians made clear points?

I don't understand what RoI are trying to do? Do they think that they a nation of just 4 million csn make us stay in the sm and cu?

System

cogito wrote: »

It supports remain in the usual way that it takes the view the UK government hasn't a clue what its doing. It makes no attempt at balance which is exactly what we see all the time from remainers who still won't accept that we're leaving.

I don't think it's just remainers that don't think the government knows what it's doing, and I'm fairly certain it's not just remainers that think that access to the EU's trading party will require something in return.

Regardless, "hasn't a clue what it's doing" isn't what the article said. I expect if I put the leavers in this forum into a room they wouldn't be able to agree what they want from the trade deal, so I don't think it takes a remainer to think the entire government can't decide either.

Have we really reached the point where pointing out the current state of affairs is "supporting remain"? Sounds bleak.

Rinoa

I've always thought a trade deal would tie us to the EU indefinitely. We'd have to comply with their wishes in so many areas it would defeat the whole point of leaving.

I guess this confirms it.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/brussels-punishment-clause-uk-trade-deal-regulatory-standards-brexit

kabayiri

I'm not surprised both sides are unclear on thing tbh.

This whole A50 process is unproven. Being the guinea pig is bound to be painful.

Thrugelmir

Rinoa wrote: »

I've always thought a trade deal would tie us to the EU indefinitely. We'd have to comply with their wishes in so many areas it would defeat the whole point of leaving.

I guess this confirms it.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/brussels-punishment-clause-uk-trade-deal-regulatory-standards-brexit

Works both ways.

Though recent events in agriculture in Europe suggest that there's much amiss

cogito

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The EU is well behind the curve that the US, then the UK are following. ECB is inflating the Eurozone with cheap money. Still to face the cold turkey treatment when the time comes to wean the economy off monetary policy, i.e. negative interest rates.

Exactly. And this is where the contradiction lies. The PMI figures that others cite as evidence that the German, Austrian and Dutch economies are booming also indicate that they are overheating. There has been plenty of recent concern about this in the European press for those who care to look.

What these economies need more than anything is an increase in interest rates to cool things down but that would cause problems for economies which are still struggling and for the Italians in particular who have debts of around €2tn and have to roll over €340bn of that in 2018. Who is going to lend them the money? It's usually the Italian banks and people who buy these bonds but they are currently selling under Draghi's QE programme. Will they turn into buyers overnight? Seems unlikely. There are already over 100 Italian bans with non performing loans in excess of their assets. The can can only be kicked down the road so far before it hits a brick wall.

Welcome to the euro.