Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Ah yes, Ireland....

The Irish Republic is seeking a pledge before Brexit negotiations continue that the island won’t be divided along its land border with the U.K.

Prime Minister Leo Varadkar repeated his view that avoiding a hard border can only be done if the U.K. government continues to apply the rules and regulations of the customs union and single market.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-11/ireland-vows-to-stand-firm-on-border-issue-in-brexit-talks

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

And London...

The Bank of England believes that up to 75,000 jobs could be lost in financial services following Britain's departure from the European Union.

The number could change depending on the UK's post-Brexit trading deal. But the bank still expects substantial job losses.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41803604

Rough_Justice

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And London...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41803604

And from the Deutsche Bank chief just two days ago

John Cryan said there was “confusion” about the function of clearing in financial markets, adding that the number of jobs that will be affected by relocating the business from London to the EU had been overstated by a factor of a thousand.

"The idea of 74,000 jobs being at risk is ridiculous, it’s more like 74.”

https://www.ft.com/content/1e4e6082-c77d-11e7-ab18-7a9fb7d6163e

Rough_Justice

Maybe a reason here why so many of the remain posse are so narked? He is an economist though and we know everybody only listens to whichever ones suit them, right?

... over the longer term, greater competitiveness will further boost the economy and, crucially, encourage companies to make productivity-boosting investments which will in turn increase real wages.

The resulting improved long-term economic growth will provide a further dividend to the UK exchequer not only enabling higher public expenditure in areas such as the NHS but also giving scope for tax cuts and paying off some of the national debt.

http://www.cityam.com/275600/budget-brexit-boost-uk-economy-why-politicians-should-plan

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Rough_Justice wrote: »

And from the Deutsche Bank chief just two days ago

Watch what they do, not what they say...

Deutsche Bank looking for another large office in Frankfurt ahead of Brexit

The new large space would also help house an expected increase in local headcount as the bank moves some operations from London as a result of Britain’s divorce from the European Union.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-deutsche-bank-frankfurt/deutsche-bank-looking-for-another-large-office-in-frankfurt-ahead-of-brexit-source-idUKKBN1D15KY

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Rough_Justice wrote: »

He is an economist though

He's a member of 'Economists for Brexit'... (Now renamed EFFT)

You might as well ask Bernard Matthews if he thinks having Turkey for Xmas dinner is a good idea...:rotfl:

Rough_Justice

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Watch what they do, not what they say...

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-deutsche-bank-frankfurt/deutsche-bank-looking-for-another-large-office-in-frankfurt-ahead-of-brexit-source-idUKKBN1D15KY

I do instead of reading "as reported by sources".

Deutsche Bank signs lease for new London headquarters

https://www.ft.com/content/4319409e-768d-11e7-a3e8-60495fe6ca71

Filo25

William Hague on the exit bill

If Theresa May and David Davis declare at some point before the next European summit on December 14 that we will indeed pay some share of these liabilities, there is no point people responding with outrage and denouncing them for giving in to Brussels. Anyone who thinks there has ever been a chance of a free trade deal with the EU without doing this has been kidding themselves.

Of course, any such payment should be dependent on a final deal being signed, sealed and ratified – without that the UK should not pay a single penny. That way, the UK retains some leverage right to the end. And agreeing to pay a share need not mean being committed now to a specific amount. A “share” could be calculated as the British population in the EU (12.5 per cent) or the proportion of the budget we pay in any one year (about 8 per cent after deducting our receipts) and since the RAL varies unpredictably, the choice of the year on which to base this calculation will be important. British taxpayers will also expect to get back their share of the capital invested in the European Investment Bank – if we’re paying debts we have to receive our slice of the assets ....

Only those closest to the negotiations can judge the right moment to acknowledge that we will pay a fairly calculated amount towards these huge liabilities. They will want to know that the transition talks will quickly be on the table in return. But it will be the right thing to do, to break through to a more hopeful outlook, in a government that needs simultaneously to do the right thing and pull itself firmly together.

mrginge

ilovehouses wrote: »

Poor analogy. We knew well before 01/01/2000 what the Y2K problem was and how it could be fixed.

In your company, and mine, we know there will be brexit problems to solve but we don't really know what they are. We probably won't know until the 11th hour.

What we'll do is have a stock (and cash) build towards the end of 2018 but fully expect to have containers in-transit where we won't know if the paperwork they left with will be sufficient by the time they arrive. It's hugely expensive.

Oh I bet you were a real barrel of laughs in late 1999.
Tinned christmas dinner spent in the bomb shelter was it?

cogito

ilovehouses wrote: »

They seem to suggesting we'll see sharp falls in the price of food in the case of no-deal. Forecasting isn't easy but it's heavily reliant on the input assumptions. Crap in = crap out

I noticed PwC have done some work using different levels of net migration reductions to forecast an effect. They show a fall in GDP per capita (not much) but one of the factoids was that 30% of staff in the food industry and 17% of staff in warehousing are from the EU.

Extrapolating a £40bn 'dividend' from an assumption which needs a shovel of salt taken with it gives a result that is useful only for feeding a hungry confirmation bias.

PwC earns massive fees from the EU for consultancy work and it only takes a couple of minutes googling to see how far they are in bed together. I doubt that PwC have ever produced a report that didn't give the answer that was wanted by those who commissioned it.