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Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5
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A Point of View this morning on Radio 4 (10 min podcast)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0b9zvtf
John Gray predicted before they happened the populist movements in the EU as being the reaction to centralist EU thinking and it’s push for a transnational superstate, most especially its free movement dogma.
His take is that the the Brexit referendum outcome was just the starting gun of a inevitable EU wide movement that will continue until centralist EU thinking executes a U turn.0 -
A Point of View this morning on Radio 4 (10 min podcast)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0b9zvtf
John Gray predicted before they happened the populist movements in the EU as being the reaction to centralist EU thinking and it’s push for a transnational superstate, most especially its free movement dogma.
His take is that the the Brexit referendum outcome was just the starting gun of a inevitable EU wide movement that will continue until centralist EU thinking executes a U turn.
Quite, and we have already seen just some of the resulting reaction against the EU in Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Germany and more as discussed in that podcast.
Maybe that's why remainers in this thread are so vocal. They (perhaps subconsciously, perhaps in denial, who knows?) surely understand that the EU has been and continues to head in a direction which is definitely not to the benefit of its citizenry.
Disagree with that statement all you wish but increasingly those in the EU are voting for populism, just for that reason.
What I find puzzling is why remainers really still want to be a part of this? The only reasonable explanation I can put forward is an (irrational?) fear of a future without what they perceive as a crutch.
Well the UK has survived many centuries and many changes in direction. I'm sure we can survive and indeed prosper from Brexit too. The world is changing. The UK needs to adapt and change with it. We are still seeing that the EU is incapable of doing so.
So, whatever the method of leaving, leave we must if we are to adapt and prosper.
Yes, I know remainers here will scoff and make their jibes; they cannot help it. But consider this; I am far from being alone in thinking this way.
It's looking more likely too, with Raab saying in today's Telegraph that if the EU reach no agreement they could end up with no payment from the UK.
And in The Times, polling shows that voters across the board by more than two to one are unhappy with May's plan, seeing it as not sticking to the result of the referendum (not that it matters because Barnier will refuse it, see later).
The poll suggests that voters will turn to the far right (and UKIP) should a GE be called because of what amounts to incompetence regarding Brexit; something which remainers here hive discounted. Well, it looks like yet again those remainers were wrong.
Barnier. Well, he's already questioned this latest Brexit plan and yet again has provided not one single sign of compromise on the part of the EU. Increasingly it appears that the suspicion of many ( that the EU do not want a "deal" of any sort which would allow any concessions to the UK ) was correct.
What next?
More blustering on both sides I suspect, before a deal of sorts is hammered-out at the very last minute.
As was suggested by many before the whole pantomime even began.0 -
We are indeed in a pickle. The public wanted Brexit by a narrow margin and it will probably get it. But a large proportion of the public will resent the impact of the change the narrow majority want. How can the government hope to unite the country when even its cabinet is split?Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0
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His take is that the the Brexit referendum outcome was just the starting gun of a inevitable EU wide movement that will continue until centralist EU thinking executes a U turn.
That was one of the reasons people said they voted to leave, because they'd been told the EU was collapsing. I think Farage was disappointed that the French elections didn't quite go the way he predicted.
I think the perfect storm that led to Brexit is less likely to happen elsewhere. It is purely a tribal instinct to react to fear in that way, but things have moved on.
It's possible that someone can following the nazi playbook and redo the leave campaigns project fear, but I don't see it happening.It's looking more likely too, with Raab saying in today's Telegraph that if the EU reach no agreement they could end up with no payment from the UK.
Because extortion is going to get us a good deal with the EU, our government showing their grubby hand with 52% of the country cheering their corrupt behaviour on.Barnier. Well, he's already questioned this latest Brexit plan and yet again has provided not one single sign of compromise on the part of the EU. Increasingly it appears that the suspicion of many ( that the EU do not want a "deal" of any sort which would allow any concessions to the UK ) was correct.
The EU didn't vote to leave the UK, they have offered their compromises up front but we had to reject them because it didn't meet our cake and eat it strategy. We told you this would happen and you said the EU needed us more than we needed them, that all we had to do was be strong and hold our nerve. To blame the EU now is appalling behaviour, just accept responsibility for the mess you caused.
We want all the benefits of the EU, so we either remain in the EU. Or we get out and accept that it's our own fault whatever happens. Blaming the EU is just a victim mentality which drove us into the mess in the first place.What I find puzzling is why remainers really still want to be a part of this? The only reasonable explanation I can put forward is an (irrational?) fear of a future without what they perceive as a crutch.
Fear is the leave vote, fear of foreigners, fear of why we can't do trade with the rest of the world as well as other EU countries can. I want to be part of the EU because it's universally been better for us than before we joined.Well the UK has survived many centuries and many changes in direction. I'm sure we can survive and indeed prosper from Brexit too.
You can survive with no arms and legs. I wouldn't recommend it as a choice.Yes, I know remainers here will scoff and make their jibes; they cannot help it. But consider this; I am far from being alone in thinking this way.
Being wrong is not a unique position.0 -
Quite, and we have already seen just some of the resulting reaction against the EU in Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Germany and more as discussed in that podcast..........
If you take the view that the EU will never change then I can see the reason you are puzzled. The EU is less likely to change now we have announced we are leaving.
The reality is that the promises of Brexit have no chance of being delivered. It was never likely we could quickly establish a load of world trade deals ( at least not ones which are to our advantage). Even where we have total regulatory alignment (ie with the EU) its far from certain. The EU continues to establish trade deals and even if they are imperfect deals they are at least advantageous.
Meanwhile the Brexiteers chase the illusions such as £300m a week for the NHS and a frictionless border in Ireland. Some of us will do OK from Brexit but not if you work in what is left of UK manufacturing industry. Similarly we will not make massive reductions in immigration because people will realize that our services need these immigrants.
Brexit has been based on lies and these lies are now unravelling. I cannot say that those advocating remaining did not exaggerate the damage Brexit would do, they did.
I have accepted that Brexit is based on a democratic wish but that does not mean I have to believe it is good for Britain or for the EU.Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0 -
Brexit has been based on lies and these lies are now unravelling. I cannot say that those advocating remaining did not exaggerate the damage Brexit would do, they did.
I didn't. My predictions were always about the type of brexit that leavers were suggesting & some of it has already happened, while some of it is hanging on in case we do a deal as nobody wants to spend money they don't have to.
Of course it wouldn't have been so bad with a brexit in name only, but leavers were never advocating that so I didn't consider that in my predictions.
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As leavers are now saying that the EU are bad people for saying things that I said they would happen all along and UK companies are making preparations to do the things I said they would, then I don't consider that I exaggerated at all.
I think part of the reason leavers think that remainers exaggerated, is because they didn't understand the point that was being made & instead listened to the likes of the Daily Mails interpretations.
David Cameron never said we'd have World War 3 if we left the EU, but the Daily Mail still says he did. Aaron Banks admitted to "leading people up the garden path" (his own words) to achieve the result.
We know who to blame for all this, even if they still are trying to shift the blame onto the EU.
I'm just glad the Vote Leave criminals who illegally conned people into voting to leave are EU are going to face justice.0 -
Let's have a look at some of the "truths" from the Project Fear side...
JP Morgan: Scotland will leave the UK and get a new currency
Goldman Sachs: Recession by 2017
HM Treasury: Half a million job losses
George Osborne; GDP would be 3.6 per cent lower after two years (compared with if the country had voted to remain), the pound would fall by 12 per cent and unemployment would rise by 520,000. GDP would be six per cent lower, the pound would fall by 15 per cent and unemployment would rise by 820,000.“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and who weren't so lazy.”0 -
A key theme of mine over the last few years has been around the notion of a common sense public vs. a disconnected, authoritarian 'liberal' establishment and how Brexit is a manifestation of the frustration people have with other worldly, sanctimonious, naïve Rupert's of the kind found at stop-Brexit, stop-Trump protests.
For my troubles I've had many a 'centrist', 'liberal', status quo Remainer dismiss my narrative as imagined fantasy.
Cancelling Brexit will surely result in a populist tsunami on UK shores.
Even this week I've had Remainers on other forums saying 'what European populist uprising', I mean, where to start with such profound ignorance?Restless, somebody pour me a vino.0 -
The EU continues to establish trade deals and even if they are imperfect deals they are at least advantageous.
S Korea the only significant deal is decades until Canada which was only spurred on due to Brexit. Take a look at the list of EU FTA's, mostly with pip-squeak island nations etc.
A key Brexit argument was that the lumbering EU squabble shop was always very difficult for independent nations to strike deals with.Restless, somebody pour me a vino.0 -
It's possible that someone can following the nazi playbook and redo the leave campaigns project fear, but I don't see it happening.
One day 'liberals' will come to understand that their relentless pulling of the race card and framing opponents as Deplorables had precisely the opposite effect of what they'd imagined. As many of us keep saying, the more the likes of James O'Brien keep ridiculing working class people, the more they drive them away into the embrace of populists.
Hillary didn't know it, none of you know it, so just keep on doing what you're doing seeking to deride and silence opponents, see how that turns out.Restless, somebody pour me a vino.0
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