Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

vivatifosi

Daniel54 wrote: »

It is not just remainers who think leaving on WTO rules would be an unmitigated disaster,which is a quote from the Leave Alliance

http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128

Brilliant link, thanks! Have quoted as it ended up bottom of page and I didn't want people to miss it.

Zero_Gravitas

Daniel54 wrote: »

It is not just remainers who think leaving on WTO rules would be an unmitigated disaster,which is a quote from the Leave Alliance

http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128

A very good explanation. Some of it’s a tiny bit technical, and my be difficult for brexiteers to understand, so here’s the concluding paragraph:

“One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government should allow it. The option should be rejected.”

Looks like some leavers are starting to see a bit of sense.

mrginge

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

A very good explanation. Some of it’s a tiny bit technical, and my be difficult for brexiteers to understand, so here’s the concluding paragraph:

“One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government should allow it. The option should be rejected.”

Looks like some leavers are starting to see a bit of sense.

Yes at last the penny is dropping. Surely it’s time to cancel the whole thing now. Especially given the scale of job losses they predict -

And while the naysayers talk about losing three million jobs if we leave the EU, we are looking at twice that and more!!!8202;—!!!8202;seven or eight million jobs are at stake.

From recollection this number is over 10 times worse than the official govt analysis on WTO.
Now I know we have already written off an actual analysis that downgraded the govt analysis on the basis that it was written by brexiteers (who actually voted remain), but clearly this one is much better.

Herzlos

I'm not sure the penny will drop; the few remaining brexiteers have a cognstive dissonance that means they penny likely still won't drop even if they lose their house/job/benefits; it'll somehow be the EUs or remainers fault

mrginge

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm not sure the penny will drop; the few remaining brexiteers have a cognstive dissonance that means they penny likely still won't drop even if they lose their house/job/benefits; it'll somehow be the EUs or remainers fault

Personally I think there will be 80 million job losses if we stay in the eu so 8 million if we leave is actually much better.

buglawton

Daniel54 wrote: »

It is not just remainers who think leaving on WTO rules would be an unmitigated disaster,which is a quote from the Leave Alliance

http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128

So what the article is saying is that WTO is not enough. We at least need a Mutual Recognition Agreement (MRA) to go with it.

And: Since the EU thinks it holds the big stick, it can simply refuse to come to such an agreement in a 'no deal' scenario. No deal as in, no exit fee, no restriction on UK making other bilateral deals in the world.

So, the Armageddon complete fall out scenario is one that's imposed by the EU as it's planned 'punishment'. People on both sides of the Brexit divide assume that punishment will be a trade blockade. This faces the UK govt with a dilemma: Accept the blackmail threat and a BRINO. Or take it right to the brink and beyond, thus putting the UK into a 'wartime economy' mode.

Going over the brink would cause a radical change in the shape of the UK economy and it would take a while for a variety of other countries (US, China, even Russia) to jump in to take advantage of the vacuum by offering instant deals, the prize being that huge UK consumer economy.

The UK would recover quite quickly.
The EU, not.

After all, if the EU holds UK trade to ransom, we can hold the disputed £39BN exit fee to ransom.
£39bn can go quite far in smoothing over a disorderly exit for us.

phillw

PDQ wrote: »

Your statement there had me rolling on the floor in fits of laughter.

Please, please show us these EU compromises.

They've offered us lots of different options, WTO/EEA/etc. If you mean cut their own throat just to please us, then no they aren't going to do that. Why would they? Just to stop your inane laughter?

buglawton wrote: »

So, the Armageddon complete fall out scenario is one that's imposed by the EU as it's planned 'punishment'. People on both sides of the Brexit divide assume that punishment will be a trade blockade. This faces the UK govt with a dilemma: Accept the blackmail threat and a BRINO. Or take it right to the brink and beyond, thus putting the UK into a 'wartime economy' mode.

What are you talking about? WTO is the option favoured by the people running Brexit.

Nobody has ever suggested it will be a trade blockade. Only that we'll have to abide by WTO rules, which is horrendous for some British industry and they have plans to move manufacturing. Remember that the Japanese car manufacturers only built here because we were in the EU, they can trade under WTO terms themselves from Japan & follow our protectionist stance.

This suggestion of blockade and punishment seems like you are desperate for a fight.

Rinoa

phillw wrote: »

Nobody has ever suggested it will be a trade blockade. Only that we'll have to abide by WTO rules, which is horrendous for some British industry and they have plans to move manufacturing.

If WTO is so bad for us, how is it we have a healthy £20Bn trade surplus with the rest of the world under WTO rules - yet we have a £70Bn trade deficit with the EU?

Ballard

I see that there’s still talk of the U.K. refusing to pay the exit fee. I’m not privy to the deals with the EU that we have signed over the last few years but as I understand it we have committed to funding projects over the next few years without any clause that we are not liable should we leave the EU.

If this is accurate then that’s probably a failure on behalf of the U.K. governments (of both persuasions) in the past but if we are liable then we should pay. Reneging on deals isn’t going to look good internationally and would probably result in court cases.

There’s also talk of us receiving a refund due to EU assets that we have helped fund. This does have some credence but it would presumably also depend on various EU agreements to which we are signatory. My guess is that there’s no clause covering the event of a country leaving. Perhaps another omission to which all of the signatures are guilty.

Ballard

Although not linked to Brexit it’s good to see that Barclays are set to employ 2,500 people in Glasgow. It’s the big foreign banks who are more likely to move front office roles offshore but they may be encouraged to keep their back office staff over here if possible.