Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

vivatifosi

buglawton wrote: »

The EU doing trade deals is subject to being blocked by a veto from any one of its member states. That’s why the deals take so long to finalise. For example, first Belgium stalled the Canada deal, now Italy is (it’s still not ratified):
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/italy-to-block-eu-canada-trade-deal-3hdh2w3td
Every EU country has its own patisan trade interests. The UK being properly outside means it would be much more agile.

Thanks. I couldn't read the Times article as paywalled, but found a Reuters one that explained the situation:


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-canada-trade/italy-says-it-wont-ratify-eu-canada-trade-deal-canada-plays-down-threat-idUSKBN1K318Q


I can see that the failure to achieve a resolution is an issue and that it is slower. But given that they have a head start, could we come out of the CU and get deals on the table more quickly?

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

Do the Japanese have to abide by ECJ rulings, pay the EU lots of money and accept FOM?

It is a trade deal. Japan is not joining the EU.

gfplux

buglawton wrote: »

The EU doing trade deals is subject to being blocked by a veto from any one of its member states. That’s why the deals take so long to finalise. For example, first Belgium stalled the Canada deal, now Italy is (it’s still not ratified):
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/italy-to-block-eu-canada-trade-deal-3hdh2w3td
Every EU country has its own patisan trade interests. The UK being properly outside means it would be much more agile.

Britain doing trade deals hopefully will take into account British domestic industry. Sadly unlike EU members they will not have a veto so a trade deal can be signed that could easily close down a British domestic producer.
Sometimes a veto can have advantages.

gfplux

For those interested in the details of the EU Japan trade deal called an Economic Partnership agreement, this is the press release from the EU.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-4526_en.htm

Herzlos

vivatifosi wrote: »

I can see that the failure to achieve a resolution is an issue and that it is slower. But given that they have a head start, could we come out of the CU and get deals on the table more quickly?

We absolutely could conclude trade deals faster than the EU could; because we wouldn't need 27 other states to agree. We would have a significantly reduced 'clout' though so may to be able to get terms as favorable as the EU does. We can presumably also take a copy of any deals the EU has and agree them independently, again much faster, but may be pressured to take poorer terms because of the lack of clout.


This would only work if we were outside the CU and can form our own trading deals. But is it worth making 45% of our trade harder to chase the rest?


As of yet, the only countries that seem keen to do deals with us are also wanting us to reduce food standards below what the EU allows, or for us to take more immigrants, or both. So the Brexiteers don't seem to have any examples of who we'd be able to get these nimbler trade deals from or how we benefit.

buglawton

gfplux wrote: »

Britain doing trade deals hopefully will take into account British domestic industry. Sadly unlike EU members they will not have a veto so a trade deal can be signed that could easily close down a British domestic producer.
Sometimes a veto can have advantages.

That's why its best to be either fully inside the EU with a vote, or fully outside the FTA/EEA with freedom to do our own deals to suit our own industries.

StevieJ

buglawton wrote: »

Looks like not. News in this evening:

Parliament scotches EU Customs Union idea
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44864496

Tactical, this will come back. To be fair they need to give May wriggle room while she is negotiating with the EU. When push comes to shove there IS a majority in the HOC supporting a Customs Union, if no satisfactory similar agreement is made.

Ahead of the vote, Tory MPs were told a defeat would lead to a vote of no confidence in the government, sources told the BBC's John Pienaar.

buglawton

Herzlos wrote: »

....
As of yet, the only countries that seem keen to do deals with us are also wanting us to reduce food standards below what the EU allows, or for us to take more immigrants, or both. So the Brexiteers don't seem to have any examples of who we'd be able to get these nimbler trade deals from or how we benefit.

You're right about food standards. My take is we could do very liberal deals with USA so long as we vastly improve our labelling to let the consumer decide. So, really prominent labels about country of origin (5 times larger font than now) and similar labelling on any standard eg GMO/chlorine treatment/animal welfare, that diverges from our own 'gold' standards.

StevieJ

buglawton wrote: »

You're right about food standards. My take is we could do very liberal deals with USA so long as we vastly improve our labelling to let the consumer decide. So, really prominent labels about country of origin (5 times larger font than now) and similar labelling on any standard eg GMO/chlorine treatment/animal welfare, that diverges from our own 'gold' standards.

Until Trump has a word, you don't put (future) US jobs at risk.

buglawton

The US has zigzagged through the centuries when it comes to protectionism vs free trade. Those who like to dig deeper should listen to this podcast:
Trump and Trade
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0b9wcdr