Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Rinoa

No deal Brexit would cost EU 1.5% of GDP annually - IMF.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-imf/no-deal-brexit-would-cost-european-union-1-5-pct-of-gdp-imf-idUKKBN1K9235?rpc=401&

So much for "It'll hurt the UK far more that it will hurt EU"

We have a more robust negotiating position than remainers think.

Herzlos

Last time I checked, 8 (best case no-deal from DxEU) was much bigger than 1.5.


Or are you thinking absolute terms are what's important here?

mrginge

Herzlos wrote: »

Last time I checked, 8 (best case no-deal from DxEU) was much bigger than 1.5.


Or are you thinking absolute terms are what's important here?

You of course have considered that 1.5% is nothing more than a lazy mean and bears no relation to the effect on individual members haven!!!8217;t you?

If not then perhaps you should look?

Herzlos

mrginge wrote: »

You of course have considered that 1.5% is nothing more than a lazy mean and bears no relation to the effect on individual members haven!!!8217;t you?

If not then perhaps you should look?

I have. But so is the 8% best case (I believe it goes up to ~15% in the North). It's also the best comparison we have at some point. Obviously some parts of the EU will be worse affected, but we're also still dealing with the EU as a whole.



It's a lot easier across a larger population to shrug off a 1.5% drop in economic output than an 8% drop, no?

mrginge

Herzlos wrote: »

I have. But so is the 8% best case (I believe it goes up to ~15% in the North). It's also the best comparison we have at some point. Obviously some parts of the EU will be worse affected, but we're also still dealing with the EU as a whole.

Why are you using 8%?
shouldn’t you use the number that the imf give instead since that is what they use and is the main comparable?

Why mention 15% in the north when, to paraphrase your next sentence ‘the eu are dealing with the uk as a whole?’

If you had bothered to look at the imfs numbers you’d see a very different story. But you haven’t.

It's a lot easier across a larger population to shrug off a 1.5% drop in economic output than an 8% drop, no?

What does population size have to do with it? It’s a percentage !!!!!!.
If you believe this then presumably it’s going to be dead easy for the UK to shrug off a 4% (imf number) drop than it is for IRL to shrug of their 3.9% drop?

Unfortunately two things are very clear. Firstly you don’t (or can’t) look beyond a headline number.
Secondly, you only consider numbers that support your existing view.

Herzlos

I know it's a percentage; that doesn't detract from my point that the percentage damage to the EU is tiny compared to the percentage damage to the UK.

You brought up the mean which I pointed out was factored into my DxEU figure, as I don't have the ING figure to hand.

Since you appear to be agreeing with me I'm confused that you're being so argumentative.

What different story am I missing? I've only skimmed the article.

Zero_Gravitas

And this is what the government has been doing to force *Prime Minister Ree-Mogg’s brexit through parliament.


https://mobile.twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/1019821107833135104


*because he appears to be the person running things at the moment..

Rinoa

Herzlos wrote: »

Last time I checked, 8 (best case no-deal from DxEU) was much bigger than 1.5.


Or are you thinking absolute terms are what's important here?

Your interpretation of the stats is misleading.

The 8% you mention was a reduction in the level of UK GDP growth over the next 15 years. (i,e not a fall}

The 1.5% cost to the EU quoted by the IMF is annually.

Herzlos

Fair point. I'll need to look deeper into the stats.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Rinoa wrote: »

No deal Brexit would cost EU 1.5% of GDP annually - IMF.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-imf/no-deal-brexit-would-cost-european-union-1-5-pct-of-gdp-imf-idUKKBN1K9235?rpc=401&

That same IMF study showed the loss to the UK would be 4% of GDP annually...

So much for "It'll hurt the UK far more that it will hurt EU"

Last time I checked 4% was more than 1.5%... :wall:

Also interesting was the IMF's assessment of the damage that would be caused if we leave the Single Market and CU then only agree a Free Trade Agreement similar to Canada's.

Under that scenario the IMF said GDP would fall by 0.5% for the EU, while the UK would suffer a loss of 2% of GDP.