Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

I suspect it'll touch a lot of nerves. You're already trying to diminish his credibility. Is it too accurate? Or if it's wrong, where?

Herzlos

PDQ wrote: »

Not any you take notice of, you mean? Here's a relatively recent one:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/economists-for-free-trade-group-forecast-4-per-cent-brexit-boost-to-growth-whitehall-single-market-iain-duncan-smith-86lwwv7j9

Ah OK. My bad. Pro-brexit group says Brexit is good. It's paywalled but all I can see is that it's something to do with a Canada+ deal (so no doubt all the stuff we need but can't have), whilst the next paragraph talks about how all of the Whitehall forecasts are negative.


I'll see if I can find the actual claim somewhere.


At least they wear their bias on their sleeve: "This report argues that a World Trade Deal !!!8211; under WTO rules that govern the vast bulk of global trade !!!8211; is the best bet for the UK with Brexit talks bogged down and little sign of progress with a hostile and intransigent EU."

Their analysis seems to directly contradict everyone in the business world.
Are these guys to be taken seriously?

scaredofdebt

Rinoa wrote: »

No deal Brexit would cost EU 1.5% of GDP annually - IMF.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-imf/no-deal-brexit-would-cost-european-union-1-5-pct-of-gdp-imf-idUKKBN1K9235?rpc=401&

So much for "It'll hurt the UK far more that it will hurt EU"

We have a more robust negotiating position than remainers think.

Earlier this year Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said Britain’s economy was around 1.5-2.0 percent smaller than it would have been if the public had voted to stay in the EU

Our economy has already suffered equal/worse damage pre- Brexit than what the IMF is predicting for the EU post-Brexit.

mrginge

scaredofdebt wrote: »

Our economy has already suffered equal/worse damage pre- Brexit than what the IMF is predicting for the EU post-Brexit.

This is an important point.

The number of people out on the street protesting that their lives are awful because they don’t have an extra 2% is staggering.

I can only conclude that either this phantom 2% is not true, or it is true but nobody actually gives a toss.

Makes me wonder if this forecasted 8% over 20 years or whatever it was is going to actually be noticed either.

Ballard

To pr!cis:

The IMF say that the EU will be 1.5% worse off after Brexit.

Brexiteers: Look everyone!

The IMF say that the U.K. will be 4% worse off after Brexit.

Brexiteers: what do they know?



I have long got to the stage that I’m just finding humour in the whole thing now. It’ll happen and we will be worse off but it’ll impact me less than others.

Thrugelmir

Ballard wrote: »

The IMF say that the U.K. will be 4% worse off after Brexit.

That's GDP. What's the bottom line impact on the economy in financial terms. Retail is already struggling. As people can only (or wish to)buy so much "stuff". Brexit isn't the only iceberg floating in the water.

wunferall

Ballard wrote: »

To pr!cis:

The IMF say that the EU will be 1.5% worse off after Brexit.

Brexiteers: Look everyone!

The IMF say that the U.K. will be 4% worse off after Brexit.

Brexiteers: what do they know?



I have long got to the stage that I’m just finding humour in the whole thing now. It’ll happen and we will be worse off but it’ll impact me less than others.

Not quite.
A more accurate summary?
Remainers: "The EU won't suffer at all from Brexit".
The IMF: "The EU will be 1.5% worse off after Brexit".
Remainers: " Err ......... okay but the UK will be worse off " and then ignore completely that at last there are signs of just how much the behemoth which is the EU will suffer.
:rotfl:

At least you're accepting that WTO Brexit will harm the EU.

Herzlos would, it seems, prefer to make all transactions in percentage terms just to avoid the hard fact that even the IMF's estimates suggest Brexit will cost the EU far, far more than it will cost the UK.


(For those with such little understanding and as an example, 4% of a fiver is 20p but 1.5 % of a grand is £15. And 20p cost to one country is preferable to £15 cost to each and every one of 27 countries.For ease we'll ignore the fact that some countries will be hit far harder than others. )

Is that pointing you in the right direction yet?

Ballard

Thrugelmir wrote: »

That's GDP. What's the bottom line impact on the economy in financial terms. Retail is already struggling. As people can only (or wish to)buy so much "stuff". Brexit isn't the only iceberg floating in the water.

The UK economy would suffer more than the EU in the event of a “no deal” Brexit, new research from the International Monetary Fund shows.

I haven’t read the actual report but if this line from the independent is correct then it seems pretty clear that they are reporting on solely the effect of Brexit.

Not that it matters to brexiteers because for them any financial loss is worth it so that we can become a free country.

wunferall

Thrugelmir wrote: »

That's GDP. What's the bottom line impact on the economy in financial terms. Retail is already struggling. As people can only (or wish to)buy so much "stuff". Brexit isn't the only iceberg floating in the water.

Retail isn't really struggling as you suggest.
Over three months volumes have increased by 2.1%, "the strongest rise since 2015" according to the Independent and others.
Given that employment too is at a new record high, this will surely not only lead to increased consumption but also to increased tax revenue.

Ballard

I don!!!8217;t recall seeing a single post by anyone suggesting that the EU won!!!8217;t be worse off. Of course the total cost to the EU will be higher in a monetary value but that divided by more people.

It comes to something when losing less that the EU is counted as a positive.