Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

mrginge

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

Nice try. Yes, I have read it. Whilst they claim it!!!8217;s !!!8220;not political!!!8221; the authors fail to point out that on of the authors is editor of !!!8220;Briefings for Brexit!!!8221;. Call me old fashioned, but that!!!8217;s a conflict of interest.

Presumably then you also believe that all (brexit-opposing) non-independent Treasury reports on Brexit are also a conflict of interest.

And whilst it!!!8217;s been carefully worded, the output of the paper is effectively brexiteer project fear - because these economists got their assumptions wrong and so far things aren!!!8217;t as bad as predicted, then any suggestion that Brexit will be bad must be wrong. Sounds like brexit support to me.

Sounds like it sounds like what you want it to sound like.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Brexit isn't the only iceberg floating in the water.

So the argument for brexit is that we're going to sink anyway, we might as well go full steam ahead into as many icebergs we can find? Seems a bit defeatist.

Mum_of_1 wrote: »

It looks like you don't realise that tactics like those helped lose remainers their referendum and led to a Brexit decision.

There was me thinking it was the lie of a better future out of the EU. Did people really vote to leave the EU because remain estimated how much you'd be worse off and you thought the figure might be slightly less than that & so should just bin that option? Seems a bit extreme to make that the only deciding factor, more likely that it's people trying to justify to themselves why they voted to leave because their motives weren't quite as honourable as they'd like to admit to.

The truth is we don't know exactly how much worse off we'll be, but that doesn't mean there is any chance of us being better off. All you got to do is hold your nerve, leave the EU & let the money flow from your pocket to the people telling you to hold your nerve. Go on, it's so close now. No complaining afterwards, it's what you wanted. When they take away our human rights, it's what you wanted.

mrginge wrote: »

I can only conclude that either this phantom 2% is not true, or it is true but nobody actually gives a toss.

Makes me wonder if this forecasted 8% over 20 years or whatever it was is going to actually be noticed either.

It's not that people don't give a toss, they've been indocrinated that it's all the EU's fault. So they protested by voting to leave the EU. If Reese Mogg can keep that level of hatred for others going for 20 years, then maybe nobody will admit to being worse off outside the EU. Leavers are convinced they are victims and it's all unfair, instead of looking at the UK government as the cause the blame has been shifted. Reese Mogg is still maintaining that shifting of blame.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

So the argument for brexit is that we're going to sink anyway, we might as well go full steam ahead into as many icebergs we can find? Seems a bit defeatist.

One navigates and steers around ice bergs. Crashing into them internationally is pure stupidity. Doesn't mean that all damage can be avoided of course. Though if the EU does to decide to show it's hand the impacts of Brexit can be mitigated. Though the concern must be of political will over that of pragmatism. Which in itself could have far reaching after shocks.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Though if the EU does to decide to show it's hand the impacts of Brexit can be mitigated.

The EU has shown it's hand. They have said we can't have our cake and eat it, it doesn't matter if the poor british victims want that cake really really badly.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Though the concern must be of political will over that of pragmatism. Which in itself could have far reaching after shocks.

The EU needs to maintain what has brought it stability, they don't have a mandate from their electorate to throw caution to the wind of a hint of a vague suggestion things could be better.

Single market = free movement of people, because if people can't freely move then how can everyone have a fair shot at the single market.

We've shown our hand, we want to sit like snipers taking all the good things we are entitled to as we are superior british & not any of that troublesome stuff that we want to make someone elses problem (only just under 51% of people have this opinion, but they're dragging us down with them).

Of course if everyone who voted leave wanted out of the single market and a return to customs queues at the ports & checking of all consignments so their imports and exports sit there for weeks/months then sure. But that isn't what the poor victims were promised when they cast their vote to leave.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Crashing into them internationally is pure stupidity.

Presenting a phone-in on LBC, the prominent Tory MP and hardline Brexiter said: !!!8220;I think we are heading full speed to an iceberg and I think an iceberg is nothing to be frightened of."

(he didn't use the word iceberg, he said WTO but it's pure stupidity & it's all just for his own personal fortune that he's doing it)

It looks entirely possible he's just 100% clueless about what the WTO is http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/05/21/what-one-piece-of-jacob-rees-mogg-nonsense-tells-us-about-br

"A normal viewer who is not particularly invested in this debate would come out of it thinking that everything is fine, the consequences of our current course of action are minimal and all those experts in the House of Lords don't know what they're on about. In fact, it is a man flapping a non-existent piece of paper in the air as he demands we drive the economy off a cliff."

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/20/week-in-review-total-brexit-madness

"The people who do not know the consequences of the UK's current course of action have chosen not to know. This became a religious debate about identity long ago. If objective reality had anything to do with it, we wouldn't have seen the events of this week in the first place."

gfplux

PDQ wrote: »

The words "IMF" and "accurate" have never really gone together Herzlos, ever since the IMF was conceived. Do you ignore the IMF's dire warnings on immediate consequences for the UK pre-referendum? All wrong.
And how Christine Lagarde ( you know, the IMF's MD ) escaped jail after being found guilty of basically fraud is little short of incredible.

As for where any supposed losses will fall, it's already been said: let's see how the Irish react as their economy crashes or the Spanish at the loss of tourism and fruit & veg sales, or the Dutch at the loss of agricultural/horticultural produce or the Germans to a large decrease in car sales or ............

Will you ever get the idea or like so many remainers will you just deny any forecasts that aren't purely to the detriment of the UK?

Have you forgotten the dreadful drop in value of the pound immediately after the referendum. Still dropping further by the way.
The price of good in the shops have gone up or margins have been trimmed which turn out to be the last straw. (= Pound shops going out of business amongs many others)
Increased cost of holidays outside Britain.

Yes a positive for exporters but that is such a small part of the economy.
Fantastic for foreigners visiting the UK but does that make you really happy. I suspect not.

phillw

gfplux wrote: »

Yes a positive for exporters but that is such a small part of the economy.

And a no deal brexit stuffs that up, so it's only a very short term benefit. The government will lose vat on any exports that are currently vatable and the exporter loses a chunk of their money to the country the goods are imported to.

PDQ wrote: »

As for where any supposed losses will fall, it's already been said: let's see how the Irish react as their economy crashes or the Spanish at the loss of tourism and fruit & veg sales, or the Dutch at the loss of agricultural/horticultural produce or the Germans to a large decrease in car sales or ............

So it's a huge game of chicken that you have pre-decided that we somehow deserve to win. I'm proud of the country we used to be, remainers won't feel good when we're proved right. Leavers won't admit they were wrong. So "let's see" is kinda pointless, leavers won't ever see.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

The EU has shown it's hand. They have said we can't have our cake and eat it, it doesn't matter if the poor british victims want that cake really really badly.

Fine. What cake are they offering though. Difficult to tell behind the smokescreen of the Irish border issue. Now it's fishing rights and access to Irish air space. Threats suggest the pressure is rising on some. Aware of the damage that could be inflicted.

Zero_Gravitas

mrginge wrote: »

Sounds like it sounds like what you want it to sound like.

Which is true of pretty much everything the brexiteers have posted in the past two years...

Mind you, it’s also interesting how the brexiteer language has been changing recently. They’ve stopped talking about the “easiest trade deal ever” and the “good deal” the EU will bend over backwards to give us. Now the only game in town is “no deal” and the only real discussion is about just how much worse off we’ll be.

They’ve won the battle and lost the war. Even Pyrrhus would impressed.

Ballard

Mum_of_1 wrote: »

So you see a post explaining very clearly why so many of the predictions about possible UK growth loss as a result of Brexit are wrong and by authors that do not support Brexit please note, therefore you must dismiss it out of hand and use sarcasm as your only defense?


It looks like you don't realise that tactics like those helped lose remainers their referendum and led to a Brexit decision.


Well there's another example saying that the UK might not in fact lose out because of flawed predictions.
You're just trying to suggest you're worried because it suits your pro-remain anti-Brexit stance, aren't you? Because if you were completely honest you would accept that neither you, me nor anybody else can know for sure what the future holds but what we do know for sure is that remainers are still deliberately misleading ( lying ) when issuing their predictions.
Probably the result of a fear of an ever-more-likely WTO Brexit.

I saw a post written by three people that I'd never heard of saying that the scores of predictions that the UK will lose out financially are incorrect. Why would I trust these people over the governments own research? They may well be correct but I am unaware of any reason to believe them over everyone else.

I have accepted repeatedly that neither I nor anyone else knows what the future holds. As I've mentioned in most of, if not all, my posts, this is a prediction of what might happen. The fact that pretty much all of the predictions are pointing to a financial loss for the UK is a worry.

I don't agree that Remainers are constantly lying. Farage, JRM & Johnson are on record as being liars though.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Fine. What cake are they offering though.

We started out with their best offer, which is membership of the EU & we rejected it.

It's up to us to offer them something in return for keeping the benefits and not the responsibility. Not that there is anything of course.

The people who tell you the EU are punishing us knew that there wouldn't be any deal to be made on the terms they sold you, they are shifting the blame from them lying about how great leaving would be to the EU.