Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

StevieJ

buglawton wrote: »

Which you say in response to the news that the 4 ERG (led by Rees-Mogg) Amendments have been accepted by May.

Let's zoom in closer, what was the most significant amendment?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-jacob-rees-mogg-customs-victory-theresa-may-tax-a8449341.html
"The most significant would prevent the UK collecting duties for the EU unless Brussels agreed reciprocal arrangements, which the Brexiteers believe would kill off the prospect".
to happen
How did you manage to interpret this as "Majority in Commons for Full customs union"? A citation would be nice.

Why do I need a citation? It is my opinion that the ERG group and their amendments are nudging the UK towards Customs Union/Single market and even a second referendum. The majority of the HOC members are Remainers, and when push comes to shove and parliament faces crashing out the EU on WTO terms, well I don't think that will be allowed to happen.

[Deleted User]

The cynic in me (I know, hard to believe - even after some wine and a nice bottle of "Dark Island" from the Orkney Brewery) thinks that there is a plan within a plan here.

Leave the EU with no choice but to NOT approve the T May approach and she can turn round and claim that a sensible agreement with the EU simply cannot be negotiated, resulting in a hard Brexit that can be blamed on the EU. (I suspect that the EU high heid yins are adopting a very similar approach, for their own reasons. )

I'm on my hols so can't easily locate the source, (internet is too unreliable and seems oddly related to the positioning of sheep on the nearby hill!) but in The Times (Saturday?) there was a letter comparing the rise in US exports to the EU over the past (IIRC) 30-odd years with the rise in UK exports to the rest of the EU. I think it claimed that with no trade deal US exports were up by about 40%, whereas the UK's were up by only about 5%. Now, that could well be complete Horliks .... anyone out there have a handy graph?

Don't know when I'll see any replies as the sheep seem to be insisting on freedom of movement .

WR

Enterprise_1701C

I love the idea that your internet depends on the sheep

Thrugelmir

Wild_Rover wrote: »

Leave the EU with no choice but to NOT approve the T May approach and she can turn round and claim that a sensible agreement with the EU simply cannot be negotiated, resulting in a hard Brexit that can be blamed on the EU. (I suspect that the EU high heid yins are adopting a very similar approach, for their own reasons. )

The "EU" has vested interests on their own agenda's. No need to concern themselves with what the UK may ultimately agree upon.

buglawton

StevieJ wrote: »

Why do I need a citation? It is my opinion that the ERG group and their amendments are nudging the UK towards Customs Union/Single market and even a second referendum. The majority of the HOC members are Remainers, and when push comes to shove and parliament faces crashing out the EU on WTO terms, well I don't think that will be allowed to happen.

That the HOC was and is majority Remain falls into the category of the blindingly obvious.

Think the sequence through:
MPs out of touch with the voters who put them there.
Which created the pop up party UKIP.
Which begat the Referendum.

So you believe that the impossibility of a crash-out to WTO will result in a de facto remain situation (BRINO)?

That would take us straight back to step 1 of the above sequence. Rinse and repeat?

Moby

buglawton wrote: »

That the HOC was and is majority Remain falls into the category of the blindingly obvious.

Think the sequence through:
MPs out of touch with the voters who put them there.
Which created the pop up party UKIP.
Which begat the Referendum.

So you believe that the impossibility of a crash-out to WTO will result in a de facto remain situation (BRINO)?

That would take us straight back to step 1 of the above sequence. Rinse and repeat?

Many people work on the assumption there is a majority in the country for a hard brexit. There isn't imo. We are already agreed there isn't a majority for a hard brexit in the Commons. Therefore the question is what happens when the EU reject Mays plan as amended by the ERG in October? Parliament won't vote through a hard brexit.....the options are therefore some sort of BINO agreed through parliament or another referendum? Look at the parliamentary maths. The ERG are about 50 MPs........against them are the Tory moderates, Labour, (apart from about 4 of their hard brexiters) and the other parties, SNP etc.

Incidentally are people aware that at such a crucial time, with so much to sort out this Govmt are planning to recess parliament five days early so that May can avoid a leadership challenge. How much longer will we be subjugating our democracy because of the internal problems of the Tory party?

vivatifosi

Breaking news... Electoral Commission has fined Vote Leave and referred to the police for breaking the law after completing an inaccurate and incomplete spending report.

ukcarper

Moby wrote: »

Many people work on the assumption there is a majority in the country for a hard brexit. There isn't imo. We are already agreed there isn't a majority for a hard brexit in the Commons. Therefore the question is what happens when the EU reject Mays plan as amended by the ERG in October? Parliament won't vote through a hard brexit.....the options are therefore some sort of BINO agreed through parliament or another referendum? Look at the parliamentary maths. The ERG are about 50 MPs........against them are the Tory moderates, Labour, (apart from about 4 of their hard brexiters) and the other parties, SNP etc.

Incidentally are people aware that at such a crucial time, with so much to sort out this Govmt are planning to recess parliament five days early so that May can avoid a leadership challenge. How much longer will we be subjugating our democracy because of the internal problems of the Tory party?

It's not as simple as that,I tend to agree there would probably be a majority that would accept the chequers agreement but if it come down to remaining in EU or leaving on WTO rules it's no so clear. Add to that if we decided to leave we don't know what terms that would be under. I don't see any new referendum giving a clearer results as the last one we might know what leave means but I don't think would know what remain would look like.

StevieJ

ukcarper wrote: »

It's not as simple as that,I tend to agree there would probably be a majority that would accept the chequers agreement but if it come down to remaining in EU or leaving on WTO rules it's no so clear. Add to that if we decided to leave we don't know what terms that would be under. I don't see any new referendum giving a clearer results as the last one we might know what leave means but I don't think would know what remain would look like.

We can ask the voting public. We are leaving the EU Do you want to Crash out of the EU on WTO terms, or join EFTA similar to Norway? Simple question, democracy in action.
We could leave it as simple as that or we could have two parts to the ballot sheet.
Tick your preference
Leave the EU
Stay in EU


If the decision was to leave the EU, please tick your preference.

WTO
Norway model.

Just out of interest if those questions had been asked at the last referendum, I think we would now be sitting next to Norway in the EFTA group, after all the Norway model would have had a starting position of 48%.

mrginge

StevieJ wrote: »

We can ask the voting public. We are leaving the EU Do you want to Crash out of the EU on WTO terms, or join EFTA similar to Norway? Simple question, democracy in action.
We could leave it as simple as that or we could have two parts to the ballot sheet.
Tick your preference
Leave the EU
Stay in EU


If the decision was to leave the EU, please tick your preference.

WTO
Norway model.

Just out of interest if those questions had been asked at the last referendum, I think we would now be sitting next to Norway in the EFTA group, after all the Norway model would have had a starting position of 48%.

I do like it when people dream up complex, convoluted and totally impractical ways to try and almost stay in an organisation we’ve already decided to leave.