Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Graham_Devon

gfplux wrote: »

Do you remember the Greek financial crisis? There was quite a groundswell of opinion to throw Greece out. It did not happen and after many years many have forgotten how they felt about Greece then and now Greece is slowly getting out of the financial hole.

Greece are simply in a bigger hole. They simply hold even more debt than they did. Will keep them going for 12-24 months, but the underlying problem hasn't gone away, neither are they digging themselves out of a hole - it's been dug deeper for them.

This will continue until a point where the EU feels it is strong enough to cut the rope or it can be taken over, by, say, Germany - with debt forgiveness stated as the reason for state control.

The next round of payments Greece has to make is in August 2018. They will most likely receive another tranche of bailout monies in order for them to pay the interest on the debt and no more.

Greece is now stuck with FIFTY years of Austerity in order to pay the loans back by 2060.

Getting better?! Depends on your view. But 50 years of the EU overseeing your spending, which will soon be 55 years? Not my understanding of getting better. Extending an pretending, sure.

vivatifosi

Herzlos wrote: »

Huge surge in brits applying for EU nationality. I wonder if these are the wealth producers we're expecting to find a way to make a success of Brexit, or rich brexiteers trying to isolate themselves from the damage they'll profit from?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44629193

I expect that there are a lot of people hedging their bets and contingency planning, much the same as companies. I certainly would if my Irish ancestry wasn't just one generation too far back. Many of my friends who have married or have parents who are EU nationals doing the same. Doesn't need to be EU either. My cousin is investigating Australian citizenship for her family.

Doesn't necessarily mean that they are looking to leave, just that they want to have the same options as now. The irony is that there are people who voted for Brexit also doing this, whereas some of us who voted remain can't, because ethnically and historically we are too British.

Graham_Devon

vivatifosi wrote: »

I understand the EU standing firm on the Four Freedoms as those are the guiding principles. But why is there no compromise on Galileo? Ludicrous inflexible point scoring. And I say that as someone who voted remain.

Presumably part of the "you will pay" stance the EU has taken. I..e it will hurt us as much as it can (while being clever not to be seen as doing this purely because they can).

Just hurts everyone though.

Wasn't stated on here, but BMW in Germany is worried. They have projections of a 20% drop in sales if the UK is forced to a hard exit. That's a lot of jobs and revenue loss for those working in the EU - and that's just one company.

What's not often mentioned is that EU buyers seem to favour the Peugeot / Ctireon brands (including Peugeot, Citreon, Renault and Nissan). Germany and the UK are the biggest buyers of the VAG / BMW / Merc brands, so they have a lot to lose.

Thrugelmir

Graham_Devon wrote: »

What's not often mentioned is that EU buyers seem to favour the Peugeot / Ctireon brands (including Peugeot, Citreon, Renault and Nissan). Germany and the UK are the biggest buyers of the VAG / BMW / Merc brands, so they have a lot to lose.

Not as concerned with the status given by the car you park on your drive to impress the neighbours. Nor as willing to take on debt to finance the purchase either.

Graham_Devon

This is one thing that grates me with brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/30/car-dealers-brexit-hits-imports-lookers

There is never a single explanation as to how brexit delays someone buying a car. Has anyone seriously delayed buying a car due to brexit? Or do we have to simply accept such an excuse, even if it has no basis?

Car sales have dropped across Europe - what makes this director believe that people would have bought more cars in the UK if we had voted remain?

I just cannot see how a brexit vote, either way, would make any marked difference? Can anyone?

Yet it seems any bad news, you can simply drop in "due to brexit" and no further statement is required.

You have all the problems with Diesel cars, peak amounts of people already on PCP leases, scrapage schemes exhausted and a general difficult economic landscape. None of this is mentioned. The only thing mentioned is that it's because of brexit - with not a single shred of reasoning why.

kabayiri

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Barnier & Co are puppets. Ultimately they have no powers of decision.

Absolutely right.

If we ran a simulation, where it was a rather big and prominent core EU country which planned to leave the club, the pattern of discussion and compromise would be entirely different.

For all the EU talk on fairness and consistency, the reality is double standards.

Even Barnier knows it is best not to bite the hand that feeds.

kabayiri

vivatifosi wrote: »

...
Doesn't necessarily mean that they are looking to leave, just that they want to have the same options as now. The irony is that there are people who voted for Brexit also doing this, whereas some of us who voted remain can't, because ethnically and historically we are too British.

It's because people misunderstand Brexit.

It was for many a vote on self interest, not any notion of ideal.

If you felt the EU deal worked for you, you ticked Remain. If you felt things were worsening, you opted for change.

Hedging bets is just more evidence of self interest.

Cameron made the mistake of thinking we were more united than we actually are.

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

Cameron made the mistake of thinking we were more united than we actually are.

London centric politicians are out of touch with the shires where the real people live and work. Without doubt in certain areas the change has been noticable.

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

We must except the EU is more fragile due to its youth and immigration is a very big problem. As we have seen in the U.K. the dislike of foreigners is just below the surface but that was why the EU was founded and how it deals with the present crisis is important. [\QUOTE]

You compare the USA and EU, saying that the EU is much younger.

The USA is a nation though, and a relatively young one compared to those in Europe. Whereas the EU is a supra-national organisation, which is completely different. As an international institution, it is not of a dissimilar age to many others such as the World Bank (1944), IMF (1945), United Nations (1945), given that it grew initially out of the Treaties of Paris (1951) and Rome (1955).

It has had several years in which to act on immigration, this is entirely related to its lack of speed and nothing to do with its age.

vivatifosi

kabayiri wrote: »

It's because people misunderstand Brexit.

It was for many a vote on self interest, not any notion of ideal.

If you felt the EU deal worked for you, you ticked Remain. If you felt things were worsening, you opted for change.

Hedging bets is just more evidence of self interest.

Cameron made the mistake of thinking we were more united than we actually are.

Completely agree it is about self interest. But that is always so in politics. People vote for parties that they think will give them what they want. Generalising here, but the well off will always want the lowest taxes, the poor will always want more access to services. It's just an extension of that really. Which is why no government will ever do something sensible, such as introduce an element of co pay to the NHS, as they would be out on their ear.


I was more making the point with my post that a mass swathe of Brits is not about to leave the UK for the EU, they just want to be able to if they choose.