Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

mrginge wrote: »

Nobody will give a toss what any company’s reasons for job gains or losses are.
Any company that wants to lay people off can blame it on brexit instead of them being crap at running a business and any company that wants to employ new people will claim its all down to their magnificent business strategy.

All the electorate care about is can I pay the mortage, buy a car and naff off on holiday. Same as they always have.

Indeed the public don't on the whole care why businesses lay off staff, and in fact most don't even care unless they are the ones laid off.


That doesn't affect the fact that many businesses shedding staff are attributing it to Brexit in some capacity, and since we're talking about Brexit's effect on the economy it's something worth talking about.


Will Airbus leave? If they have to. Will BMW, Nissan, Toyota, Ford, Rolls Royce? If they have to.


The one other thing to remember is that once these huge employers leave to set up in the Eurozone, it's very unless that they'll come back. A lot of these companies set up in the UK in the first place was for Eurozone access and have been clear from the start what losing the single market means.


So we have lots of potential job losses that are very plausibly due to Brexit, but almost no job increases attributed to Brexit beyond those directly involved in managing Brexit, which of course is people being paid but not adding any value to the economy.

Thrugelmir

HPC_Ghuol_Hunter wrote: »

Well it is indeed strange how all the slow drip feeding of negative outlook and possible job loses are coming from large well established businesses. Yeah, it is just down to them being crap at running business.

:rotfl::T:money::beer::j

Drip drip eastwards currently. Owners, execs and shareholders come before employees. Profit drives Western culture. Short sighted view.

phillw

sevenhills wrote: »

I am sure we will allow the cheap labour used by farmers to come into the country,

The reality is that post brexit they can earn more money working elsewhere & they don't have to put up coming to a country they have discovered hates foreigners coming here.

Lornapink wrote: »

Those without compassion applaud encouraging Africa's nurse and Doctors to come to over-entitled Britain leaving the poorest children on the planet with even lessor medical access.

It's not a sound argument. Having unemployed doctors and nurses in their country won't improve anything.

mrginge wrote: »

All the electorate care about is can I pay the mortage, buy a car and naff off on holiday. Same as they always have.

So you think they will regret brexit then?

I thought all they cared about was ending free movement of people. At least that is what brexiters have been saying was the will of the people, above all else, for the last two years.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Why would they want to expand, if they are threatening to leave?

Because they want to expand and they are still being promised no friction borders allowing free movement of workers and they are aiming to get a subsidy to make up for some of the losses we've already seen in real terms since brexit. They are threatening to leave because they are seeing that the government is lying to them, the government won't be able to keep lying when the deal is agreed and revealed. There is still too much delusion that everything is going to be ok for a true picture.

All this "they are just crap at running a business" ignores reality. They might be crap at running a business, most businesses are crap and rely on luck (even the people reading this thinking they aren't crap and don't rely on luck for their success), but brexit is going to be a major pressure on all businesses moving forward.

mrginge

Herzlos wrote: »

Indeed the public don't on the whole care why businesses lay off staff, and in fact most don't even care unless they are the ones laid off.

That doesn't affect the fact that many businesses shedding staff are attributing it to Brexit in some capacity, and since we're talking about Brexit's effect on the economy it's something worth talking about.

No were talking about Nigel farage mostly.
If you want to talk about Brexits effect on the economy it goes like this.
1. Some uncertainty.
2. A transition to some new rules.
3. Pretty much back to normal economic cycle.

Will Airbus leave? If they have to. Will BMW, Nissan, Toyota, Ford, Rolls Royce? If they have to.

The one other thing to remember is that once these huge employers leave to set up in the Eurozone, it's very unless that they'll come back. A lot of these companies set up in the UK in the first place was for Eurozone access and have been clear from the start what losing the single market means.

It doesn’t make sense that those companies only came to the UK for single market access.
Airbus could have !!!!!!ed off to Bulgaria at any point if that was true.
Those companies will locate based on multiple factors and anyone who thinks that the SM is the be all and end all is dreaming.

So we have lots of potential job losses that are very plausibly due to Brexit, but almost no job increases attributed to Brexit beyond those directly involved in managing Brexit, which of course is people being paid but not adding any value to the economy.

You have applied a classical statistical bias by selectively segmenting in a way which supports your argument. Anyone can do that for effect but its the overall change that actually matters.

Remain: we lost X jobs because of Brexit so its all bad.
Leave: we created Y jobs despite Brexit so its all good.
If Y is anywhere near X (which it will be) then no-one will be be interested in any more discussions about the EU.

Moby

Lornapink wrote: »

This attitude is so out of date. Your 'solution' means the decimation of already struggling African nations that need their citizens if they are to have a hope in developing.

Those without compassion applaud encouraging Africa's nurse and Doctors to come to over-entitled Britain leaving the poorest children on the planet with even lessor medical access.

Encouraging and cheerleading mass immigration is a tired clapped-out narrative from yesteryear, it harms Africa and European citizens have had enough.

Liberal / Centrist sneery, morally indignant tonality is precisely why populist tsunamis are occurring across Europe, people are sick to the back teeth of the arrogance and naivety of the that class.

Oh, and FYI a red wave is now occurring in Saintly Canada, people are awakening, everywhere.

Where have I suggested the 'decimation' of Africa? or cheer led mass immigration? Your populist rhetoric is getting rather carried away.;) Your comments about 'liberal/centrist, sneery, morally indignant tonality' above is simply the politics of hate hidden by a thin veneer of righteous indignation due to your views being shown for what they are rather simple NIMBY populism without any real solutions.

vivatifosi

I used to monitor foreign investment in the UK as part of my job mrgignge. While it is true companies come to the UK for a number of reasons, e.g. English language, the relative ease of set up and exit, generally business friendly outlook; access to the single market is a huge factor.

The major source of inward investment to the UK has always been the USA. When American companies look to move to Europe in the future they will want certainty as to whether they will get single market access. Otherwise, there are other options where English is widely spoken and which also have a business friendly outlook, e.g. Ireland.

We will still get investment from America. But if the likes of Amazon or Five Guys expand here, they are doing so by and large to serve our domestic market, which is very different to using the UK as a convenient stepping stone to continental Europe.

That's not to say we won't get any investment in the UK going forward, but we have to be able to signal to firms what the single market access will consist of. Business wants to be in possession of all the facts when expanding into a new market to mitigate risk.

cogito

Moby wrote: »

That attitude is a return to the dark ages. It's not our job, or not in my backyard....sounds so trite and easy......... turning your back on the world doesn't work though....that's why the EU was important. Africans are coming to Europe anyway. We can't just turn our back on Italy, we have international responsibilities. Eastern Europe is less of a problem than it would have been without the EU. Putin wants brexit because it weakens us!

The EU has turned its back on Italy. That's why their immigration policy is such a mess. If the EU doesn't accept its responsibility to a member country, why should the UK?

Backbiter

An American view of what Brexit holds in store. Very interesting video:

https://twitter.com/davemacladd/status/1011636382786314240

Moby

cogito wrote: »

The EU has turned its back on Italy. That's why their immigration policy is such a mess. If the EU doesn't accept its responsibility to a member country, why should the UK?

Agreed........ but my point is what do we do? Provide leadership and co-operate with potential allies to deal with huge issues coming down the pipeline or turn our backs? When the forces of nationalism and populism rise the world becomes an uglier place imo.

Enterprise_1701C

Company relocations have long been funded by the eu, who have actively been breaking their own rules and funding the relocation of companies from western Europe to eastern Europe

https://www.ft.com/content/74ab02a6-fd85-11df-a049-00144feab49a

Ford had an eu grant to move manufacturing to Turkey in 2013.

It would however appear that Cadbury is returning to Bournville after being moved to Poland with the help of the eu.

Apparently Jaguar Land Rover has recently agreed to build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, the same company who have trashed our steel works and emptied the workers pension funds.

It would appear a lot of our manufacturing base has been encouraged to move to Eastern Europe with the help of eu money under the guise of helping the economy in Eastern Europe, no wonder they were so eager to join the eu.

As far as I can tell we would be losing our companies to Eastern Europe whether we stayed in or not, the eu seem to like moving companies from the west to the east, and it is not just us that have suffered through this strategy.