Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

There is a tendency here to (purposely?) interpret every piece of news which is not pro-EU-biased as being pro-Brexit when that is not necessarily the case.
There is also a tendency to (again purposely?) interpret news from within the EU as being desirous of an EU "collapse" if this news displays the EU in a negative light.
I suppose then that this will be seen as predicting the imminent departure of another EU member country?

The European Commission has warned Poland’s attempts to alleviate Brussels’ concerns over rule of law are insufficient, escalating tensions between the bloc and its sixth largest member state.

The clash over the rule of law is one of a number between the populist Law & Justice Party (PiS) and the EU. Poland is also resisting imposing EU migrant quotas and rejects reforms over posted workers being pushed by France.

https://www.ft.com/content/f771394d-9017-3cc1-9d68-90375e80be06

cogito

always_sunny wrote: »

So far the UK hasn't even managed to offer something substantial about current EU nationals!

What, in your opinion, should we be offering? The UK has offered to give them equal status with its own citizens. What more could the EU reasonably ask?

kabayiri

The legal aspect is interesting, and in truth, unclear as to who it would favour.

You could imagine UK arguing legal fairness, by pointing to the details of deals done with others like Ukraine. After all, respect for legality is still important to the EU.

The downside is that this could all be tremendously time consuming.

I wonder if the UK team are trying to run the clock down, without appearing as the ones doing it?

If they are, there will be some squeaky bums from all corners.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Meanwhile in the Euro zone, inflation rises more than expected:

Inflation in the euro area picked up more than economists predicted though underlying cost pressures failed to accelerate, underscoring the European Central Bank’s struggle for price stability just days before officials debate the future of their stimulus program.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-31/euro-area-inflation-gathers-pace-as-ecb-weighs-future-stimulus
Whilst Germany sees retail sales fall:

Weak German retail sales cast some doubt on consumers' strength

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-economy-retail-idUKKCN1BB0IW?il=0

Given that German media was recently found to be politically biased, might the inconsistency with economic forecasts and data recently not have anything at all to do with forthcoming elections in Germany (and in Austria) and the desire to appear trouble-free to maintain Merkel's popularity?

:whistle:

cogito

kabayiri wrote: »

The legal aspect is interesting, and in truth, unclear as to who it would favour.

More to the point, where is there a court which would be able to adjudicate?

Obviously not the ECJ or the UK Supreme Court. Nor could it be the ICJ because that body rules on disputes between countries and the EU is not recognised as a country. So, if it came to it, I suspect that the individual countries of the EU27 would have to bring their own actions and would they all have the stomach to do it? The ICJ is also notoriously slow at delivering verdicts. Would the EU countries be willing to stick out for a decade or more to wait for a verdict?

always_sunny

cogito wrote: »

What, in your opinion, should we be offering? The UK has offered to give them equal status with its own citizens. What more could the EU reasonably ask?

Restriction on FoM rights, no ability to vote in local elections, immigration documents, etc what the UK has offered fall short of what we have today.

cogito

always_sunny wrote: »

Restriction on FoM rights, no ability to vote in local elections, immigration documents, etc what the UK has offered fall short of what we have today.

So they couldn't reasonably ask for ECJ jurisdiction. We can agree on that.

The EU haven't offered FoM to UK citizens living in the EU either. Regarding immigration documents, we clearly need to establish who has the right to stay and who hasn't.

On voting in local elections, this shouldn't be made into a problem but I can't see where we have said this. Maybe you can help out.

always_sunny

cogito wrote: »

So they couldn't reasonably ask for ECJ jurisdiction. We can agree on that.

Given the UK government past records, even British nationals would be better having an arbitrator! Was it last week that they sent out deportation letters by mistake? Really?

Conrad

always_sunny wrote: »

Given the UK government past records, even British nationals would be better having an arbitrator! Was it last week that they sent out deportation letters by mistake? Really?

Once again one wonders why people will risk life and limb to get off the continent and into the UK, to include plenty with no family connections here.


I think an awful lot of Brits are very spoilt and if they found themselves living abroad would come to realise just how many things they would miss but took for granted.


Friend of ours was excited at living in Dubai at first, forever bemoaning UK internet speeds and many other things, but now is incredibly home sick and goes on about all the things they miss such as the rule of law and generally a very safe incorruptible place to live

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

The legal aspect is interesting, and in truth, unclear as to who it would favour.

You could imagine UK arguing legal fairness, by pointing to the details of deals done with others like Ukraine. After all, respect for legality is still important to the EU.

The downside is that this could all be tremendously time consuming.

I wonder if the UK team are trying to run the clock down, without appearing as the ones doing it?

If they are, there will be some squeaky bums from all corners.

I'm pretty confident the UK team plan is exactly that; run out the clock and blame the EU for "punishing" us. It's going to be a mess anyway, so they may as well start preparing to deflect blame so they can keep their jobs