Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

System

Hammond to Sky News

“We know, on this big issue of how we take forward our exit from the European Union, what type of relationship we should have with the European Union in the future, there are differences of view, nobody is denying that,”

So much for singing like birds in a nest or Boris is absolutely behind the Florence speech. Boris lied and May answered a different question to the one asked.

It's their world and we just have to live in it.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Since you decided to take Fullfact's 2016 figure , here's where you are going wrong:
https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-annual-budget/2016/
The EU budget for that year was 143.89 billion Euros.
*Note: both these figures are gross.
Is that clear enough?

Ok, so contribution of £13.1bn on a budget of £126bn is 10.4% in 2016. That's not widly different from my 8.5% estimate for 2017.

It still doesn't invalidate my point, no matter how pedantic you want to try and get about the figures being used. Since I've conceded I may be a few ppt out, and that it's not actually relevant to the discussion, do you want to address the actual issue or do you want to maintain this tangent?

Conrad

ilovehouses wrote: »

So, as we don't need a deal, Fox's warning to the EU is based on altruistic concern for the people of the EU?

His pointing out to EU citizens they stand in the firing line is perfectly valid.


This is what we argued all along - that ultimately Governments responsible for jobs on the ground will hold sway, not preening Brussels bureaucrats

Hard Brexit will hurt EU more than Britain, warns Belgian university

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/25/hard-brexit-will-hurt-eu-britain-warn-university-researchers/

Conrad

ilovehouses wrote: »

So much for singing like birds in a nest or Boris is absolutely behind the Florence speech. Boris lied and May answered a different question to the one asked.

It's their world and we just have to live in it.

Under Blair people said they were sick of spin, that they yearned for politicians willing to stray from the hymn sheet.


Now the people bemoan Tory politicians straying from the pre-ordained narrative and voicing their opinions.


So which is you want? Robot spun political narratives or politicians speaking their minds?

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Under Blair people said they were sick of spin, that they yearned for politicians willing to stray from the hymn sheet.


Now the people bemoan Tory politicians straying from the pre-ordained narrative and voicing their opinions.


So which is you want? Robot spun political narratives or politicians speaking their minds?

The thing with this is, out of the 3 of them and their statements, we know at least 1 of them is lying (probably all 3).

I think we'd prefer they told the truth, or were at least organised enough to get the lie correct. These people are supposed to be responsible for one of the biggest changes this generation will see, and they can't even keep a simple story straight.

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

Hard Brexit will hurt EU more than Britain, warns Belgian university

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/25/hard-brexit-will-hurt-eu-britain-warn-university-researchers/


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We've been through this before, Conrad.
Those 1.2 million jobs the EU is supposed to lose represent what % of their total workforce?
Those 0.5 million jobs the UK is supposed to lose represent what % of our total workforce?

mayonnaise

Eurozone manufacturing conditions at 6.5-year high


https://www.ft.com/content/14173d6c-7151-3e69-9fc9-41fe9564f7d0

Meanwhile, in Blighty...

UK factory growth slows, price pressures rocket again

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-pmi/uk-factory-growth-slows-price-pressures-rocket-again-pmi-idUKKCN1C70S9?il=0

System

Conrad wrote: »

His pointing out to EU citizens they stand in the firing line is perfectly valid.

Yes, but nobody believes he a gives a monkeys about EU citizens.

So despite him saying we don't need a trade deal he's sending a signal that we really would like a trade deal and we'd like to start talking about it yesterday.

michaels

Does this finally settle the argument on whether QE is effective in stimulating the real economy (at least in the short/medium term)?

US went big on QE first and recovered soonest, followed by UK who then saw growth and finally the Eurozone after years of paralysis saw the Germans overruled and QE launched with abandon and is finally seeing a recovery?

I guess this perhaps reflects how directly politically accountable the policy makers are - in the EU they are so remote it took years before the resentment on the ground fed through to monetary easing as the link between EU governance and the voters is so weak.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Eurozone unemployment sticks at lowest since 2009

The unemployment rate in the eurozone has stuck at 9.1 per cent for August, slightly disappointing the Reuters consensus forecast for a further small decline but still at the lowest point since February 2009.

https://www.ft.com/content/d9332bda-5b9a-329d-90a8-74dab54cac1e?mhq5j=e6


9.1% average across Europe?
See, an extra million & a half won't affect that much.
Really.

Mayo says so, hence it must be true.