Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Ah, this is the same "potentially" as the asteroid bound for earth causing the extinction of all known life forms I suppose?
As in "Whaaat?"

As much as I love you diving on the tangents, it'd be nice to stick to the topic.

I think the potential for us paying more in (net) than before is a lot more likely than a comet. We'd be losing both of our rebates (the rebate, and EU development money being spent in the UK), whilst still having to pay in something to get market access, assuming that's the only way we can get services.

Even if that's half of what we pay now (gross), without the deductions that's about what we're actually paying (net). If we get a deal where we pay in more than half (gross), we could actually be paying in more (net). We'll see. I put the odds of that happening as being maybe 60/40 towards paying more.

And that doesn't factor in all the money we'll waste duplicating departments.

Though it raises an interesting point, how much will the EU budget shrink once it no longer has responsibility for the UK? Less MEPs, less people on comissions, less admin staff, less people in each agency. Maybe a 5-10% reduction in staffing?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

You've definitely not read the article you linked to - it's the usual propaganda from Jock the Obscure. Basically he takes ONS, treasury & EU figures, throws them up in the air, and based, on his assumptions, increases the UK's net contribution by 7.5%.

All above board I'm sure but I can't help think you're pontificating about the numbers because you realise, for reasons explained, that the loss of the UK's contribution, whilst significant, isn't the end of the world.

".... on his assumptions, increases the UK's net contribution by 7.5%."

Why lie about it when the figures given are freely available from both the ONS and from the official EU DGS?
This is explained in my original link:

Both the UK and the EU produce numbers on the UK net contribution to the EU budget. The UK numbers are produced annually by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) as part of its ‘pink book’ on the UK balance of payments (see Table 9.9 in the 2016 edition of the ‘pink book’ which can be downloaded here).

Even if the Government's "European Union Finances 2015: statement on the 2015 EU Budget and measures to counter fraud and financial mismanagement" statement released December 2015 says that our budgeted payments to the EU for 2015 would be £14.128 billion - which given the actual figures paid were not all available at that time is not so far off the pink book's £14.263 billion, is it?
See pages 10 & 11 of the pdf here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/483344/EU_finances_2015_final_web_09122015.pdf

So go on; you have access the official figures from both the EU and the UK and yet you incorrectly say that this "on his assumptions, increases the UK's net contribution by 7.5%."
The propagandist based upon evidence then is you.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

As much as I love you diving on the tangents, it'd be nice to stick to the topic.

I think the potential for us paying more in (net) than before is a lot more likely than a comet. We'd be losing both of our rebates (the rebate, and EU development money being spent in the UK), whilst still having to pay in something to get market access, assuming that's the only way we can get services.

Even if that's half of what we pay now (gross), without the deductions that's about what we're actually paying (net). If we get a deal where we pay in more than half (gross), we could actually be paying in more (net). We'll see. I put the odds of that happening as being maybe 60/40 towards paying more.

And that doesn't factor in all the money we'll waste duplicating departments.

Though it raises an interesting point, how much will the EU budget shrink once it no longer has responsibility for the UK? Less MEPs, less people on comissions, less admin staff, less people in each agency. Maybe a 5-10% reduction in staffing?

Again, you are the one diverting the topic and I am the one responding to your diversions.

Fortunately for the UK, what you "think" is looking extremely unlikely although of course most things are possible, even if that possibility is remote.
It has been repeatedly reiterated that we will leave the EU in March 2019. What the EU do with their budget after that is their problem, not ours. Unsurprisingly, so far they have not agreed what to do.

http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-throws-eu-budget-off-course-uk-jes-geier-europe/

https://www.ft.com/content/222b7d4c-5b59-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b

mayonnaise

After last week's UK credit rating downgrade, it's now the Isle of Man's turn.

Moody's said the decision reflects "continued instability and uncertainty over the Brexit process"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-man-41467426

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Why lie about it when the figures given are freely available from both the ONS and from the official EU DGS?

Noted you're still prevaricating about the numbers and avoiding talking about what they mean. I'll indulge you for a little longer.

I was being tongue in cheek - your new best friend is numberwanging. I don't dispute the figures from the ONS and EU DSG but his calculation of what members will have to pay post-brexit is based on the rather large assumption..'I assume that member states make additional contributions to the EU budget according to their GNI-based contributions' - why assume the budget should be the same size post brexit?

If you do wish to discuss the EU's funding gap the best place to start is by putting a number to what the UK pays in and subtract what they get back rather than setting fire to google.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

The not-so-good:
Catalonian referendum violence plunges EU into crisis as '90pc of voters back independence'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/01/eu-crisis-catalonian-referendum-descends-violence/


European capitals are about to face several major foreign policy battles with Washington over the coming months, which could undermine an already fragile transatlantic relationship.
http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=73261




BTW, there are those who criticise the use of so-called "obscure" websites. To then use ( I wonder why :think: ) a South African financial publication in desperation to find positives is perhaps more than a little "pot, kettle" no?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

Noted you're still prevaricating about the numbers and avoiding talking about what they mean. I'll indulge you for a little longer.

I was being tongue in cheek - your new best friend is numberwanging. I don't dispute the figures from the ONS and EU DSG but his calculation of what members will have to pay post-brexit is based on the rather large assumption..'I assume that member states make additional contributions to the EU budget according to their GNI-based contributions' - why assume the budget should be the same size post brexit?

If you do wish to discuss the EU's funding gap the best place to start is by putting a number to what the UK pays in and subtract what they get back rather than setting fire to google.

The usual, eh?
Swift back-track and then obfuscate when you've been caught out.



Unrelated, but this just released:
Britain aims to give go-ahead to new Heathrow runway by next year

“Subject to the necessary consultation work and securing the backing of parliament, we are aiming to give it the formal go ahead in the first half of next year,” Grayling told the ruling Conservative Party’s annual conference.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-heathrow/britain-aims-to-give-go-ahead-to-new-heathrow-runway-by-next-year-idUKKCN1C71ZG?il=0

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

After last week's UK credit rating downgrade, it's now the Isle of Man's turn.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-man-41467426

A "no-news" really.
But from that:

Treasury Minister Alf Cannan said the rating adjustment came as no surprise given the UK's rating was revised in September.

And also, importantly:

It has also changed the Isle of Man's long-term issuer and debt ratings to "stable" from "negative" - in line with the UK.

mayonnaise

Italian banks' bad debt used to be another sign of the impending Eurozone collapse for some forumites.

However, in the real world, far away from Daily Express and Daily Mail op-ed pieces...

Italian banks’ bad loans fall sharply as economy rebounds

The stock of bad debts held by Italian banks fell by a record amount in July, in a sign that Italy’s struggling financial sector is starting to benefit from stronger economic growth and greater investor interest.

https://www.ft.com/content/6d33ef0c-9797-11e7-b83c-9588e51488a0

mayonnaise

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Following yesterday's referendum in Catalonia:
"Spanish PM faces crisis after violent secession vote in Catalonia"

“The period of confusion may cause a dent in Spanish economic sentiment,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg in London. “For the euro zone as a whole, the possible Catalan impact will probably be too small to make a noticeable difference.”’

http://www.fin24.com/Economy/eurozones-economy-shines-through-in-year-of-political-strain-20171002