Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Have a read of the capreform.eu link.

Not heard of the site, not heard of the chap writing the article but I note it's all based on his own calculations based on his own assumptions which might not be reliable.

I'm not saying it's nonsense but it's an over-complication.

Conrad

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Eurozone unemployment sticks at lowest since 2009


https://www.ft.com/content/d9332bda-5b9a-329d-90a8-74dab54cac1e?mhq5j=e6


9.1% average across Europe?
See, an extra million & a half won't affect that much.
Really.

Mayo says so, hence it must be true.

That's right, the Irish will vote to harm their own significant trade with the UK putting huge numbers of their citizens at risk. Spain, Holland, Belgium and others will join this merry exercise in self-harm.


Millions harmed, but Brussels elites kept happy and distant. Yu'p will go down great with the people.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Following yesterday's referendum in Catalonia:
"Spanish PM faces crisis after violent secession vote in Catalonia"

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy faces Spain’s biggest constitutional crisis in decades after Sunday’s violence-marred independence referendum in Catalonia opened the door for its wealthiest region to move for secession as early as this week.

“It could all get worse,” the moderate Catalan newspaper La Vanguardia said in an editorial after Spanish police used batons and rubber bullets to disrupt the vote, which had been declared illegal by Madrid. Catalan officials said 840 people had been injured.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-politics-catalonia/spanish-pm-faces-crisis-after-violent-secession-vote-in-catalonia-idUKKCN1C70LY?il=0

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

Not heard of the site, not heard of the chap writing the article (You had never heard of Faisal Islam or Beth Rigby either so there's no surprise there) but I note it's all based on his own calculations based on [STRIKE]his own assumptions[/STRIKE] the European Commission's Directorate-General for Budget figures which might not be reliable. The EU's own statistics, unreliable?

I'm not saying it's nonsense but it's an over-complication.

Firstly note I said "an indication".
Secondly I did ask you (both) to provide your own detailed figures if you wanted to work it out.
I won't hold my breath waiting.


http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/budget/index_en.htm

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Firstly note I said "an indication".
Secondly I did ask you (both) to provide your own detailed figures if you wanted to work it out.
I won't hold my breath waiting.

http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/budget/index_en.htm

You've definitely not read the article you linked to - it's the usual propaganda from Jock the Obscure. Basically he takes ONS, treasury & EU figures, throws them up in the air, and based, on his assumptions, increases the UK's net contribution by 7.5%.

All above board I'm sure but I can't help think you're pontificating about the numbers because you realise, for reasons explained, that the loss of the UK's contribution, whilst significant, isn't the end of the world.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

The original issue was addressed; you and the house-loving fantasist are the ones who keep returning to off-topic subjects as above.
But again, just because you asked ................. you're looking at a reduction across the entire EU 27.

It still hasn't, but I don't imagine it will.

Also, none of that actually contradicts what I said. Assuming the EU doesn't reduce it's budget, then the contributions for each member state will need to go up a small amount.

I haven't claimed that neither will have to happen, but I'm pointing out that the budget decrease isn't "major", nor is the contribution increase "major". That doesn't mean anyone would be happy about it.

If you think a budget decrease of ~8-10% is "major", then what do you regard the budget cuts forced on UK councils? "Devastating?" "Crippling"? "Catastrophic"?

Do you think the EU will give the UK a super special unique deal, just to avoid an 8-10% budget cut? When they can probably recoup almost all of it either via tariffs or from us paying to access the market.

Potentially, and you'll love this, we could end up paying even more to the EU for market access than we currently do, because we're going going to be getting the rebates or the EU funding of UK projects. Wonderful, eh?

System

Herzlos wrote: »

Potentially, and you'll love this, we could end up paying even more to the EU for market access than we currently do, because we're going going to be getting the rebates or the EU funding of UK projects. Wonderful, eh?

It's not much discussed because everyone likes to see things in black and white so the starting point is we pay £x and that will stop.

In reality there are huge commonalities that will remain post-brexit where it'll make sense to share resources and costs. That would be good for the UK taxpayer and good for the EU looking at making up a shortfall. Whether it makes political sense will remain to be seen.

System

The booming eurozone manufacturing sector kicked into an even higher gear in September, with the PMI rising to a level only once beaten in the past 17 years. The headline PMI moved up from 57.4 in August to 58.1, closing in on the all-time high of 60.5 recorded in April 2000.

Surging order book growth encouraged manufacturers to take on extra staff at a rate never previously seen in the 20-year history of the PMI survey, with exports continuing to rise at a solid pace even in the face of the stronger euro.

Smokin'

http://www.markit.com/Commentary/Get/02102017-Economics-Eurozone-manufacturers-see-rising-price-pressures-as-third-quarter-ends-on-strong-note

UK Robust

The IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI fell from a four-month high of 56.7 in August to 55.9 in September. Although dropping, the PMI remained firmly in expansion territory and above the 55.5 average recorded in the first eight months of the year.

http://www.markit.com/Commentary/Get/02102017-Economics-PMI-signals-strong-end-to-third-quarter-for-UK-manufacturing

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

It still hasn't, but I don't imagine it will.

Also, none of that actually contradicts what I said. Assuming the EU doesn't reduce it's budget, then the contributions for each member state will need to go up a small amount.

I haven't claimed that neither will have to happen, but I'm pointing out that the budget decrease isn't "major", nor is the contribution increase "major". That doesn't mean anyone would be happy about it.

If you think a budget decrease of ~8-10% is "major", then what do you regard the budget cuts forced on UK councils? "Devastating?" "Crippling"? "Catastrophic"?

Do you think the EU will give the UK a super special unique deal, just to avoid an 8-10% budget cut? When they can probably recoup almost all of it either via tariffs or from us paying to access the market.

Potentially, and you'll love this, we could end up paying even more to the EU for market access than we currently do, because we're going going to be getting the rebates or the EU funding of UK projects. Wonderful, eh?

Ah, this is the same "potentially" as the asteroid bound for earth causing the extinction of all known life forms I suppose?
As in "Whaaat?"

EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said that Britain is refusing to settle bills beyond 2020

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-budget/biggest-ever-eu-budget-overhang-casts-shadow-on-brexit-bill-idUKKCN1C32UY

mayonnaise

Eurozone's economy shines through in year of political strain

On track for the strongest expansion in a decade and with consumer and business confidence at the highest since before the financial crisis, the 19-nation currency bloc is emerging as fertile ground for dealmakers, investors and executives.

The wind is well and truly back in the sails of Europe

:T

And while acknowledging political challenges ahead....

Catalonia’s illegal independence referendum on Sunday, which could see separatists make a unilateral declaration as soon as this week to split the region from Spain, showed that the risks are far from over.

...it's always good to put these into context.

For the euro zone as a whole, the possible Catalan impact will probably be too small to make a noticeable difference.

http://www.fin24.com/Economy/eurozones-economy-shines-through-in-year-of-political-strain-20171002