Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

fatbeetle

Unemployment in the UK fell by 75,000 in the three months to July, official figures show, bringing the jobless rate down to 4.3%.

cogito

ilovehouses wrote: »

Some speculation Mrs. May is going to make a big speech of some sort.

Personally I don't think we can afford the delays. The negotiate for a two days and brief the press for three days is getting silly.



Probably coincidental. You don't need much of a crystal ball to see that the most likely outcome will be that Merkel spends the 25th putting together a German coalition government.

If everything really is on hold whilst we await German elections then hopefully the 25th will see things speed up a bit.

The Dutch had an election several months ago and still haven't formed a government which means another election coming up. It's far from nailed on that Merkel will be able to form a coalition if current opinion polls are anything to go by. I know opinion polls are discredited but unless she is prepared to form a coalition with Schulz which is unlikely in view of the bad blood between them, she will only get past 50% with the support of AfD and that won't happen either.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

fatbeetle wrote: »

Unemployment in the UK fell by 75,000 in the three months to July, official figures show, bringing the jobless rate down to 4.3%.

And wages rose by 2.1% it says too.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-jobs/jobless-rate-falls-to-lowest-since-1975-as-pay-growth-lags-idUKKCN1BO0T0

Theophile

Unemployment at record low, real wages and productivity falling.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

Some speculation Mrs. May is going to make a big speech of some sort.

Personally I don't think we can afford the delays. The negotiate for a two days and brief the press for three days is getting silly.



Probably coincidental. You don't need much of a crystal ball to see that the most likely outcome will be that Merkel spends the 25th putting together a German coalition government.

If everything really is on hold whilst we await German elections then hopefully the 25th will see things speed up a bit.

There is indeed much speculation - at least we won't have long to wait before we see (maybe) why the delay, especially since the UK had previously asked for more negotiation.

Like many though, I'm not a great believer in coincidence.
Whilst Merkel may well spend the 25th trying to form a government, the election result will nonetheless indicate to EU negotiators the appropriate direction for continuing Brexit negotiations.

Junckers' annual EU address demonstrates admirably how desperate the EU are regarding the effects of Brexit upon their beloved vision:

Britain’s departure is “tragic” and the British too will come to regret it...

Which implies tragic for the EU, no?

The EU is to launch new, transparent free trade talks with Australia and New Zealand and aim to conclude those as well as ongoing negotiations with Japan, Mexico and South American nations by the end of Juncker’s mandate in late 2019.

Is this desire the result of various countries discussions with the UK perchance?

calling for all EU states to adopt the euro and offering technical and financial help for countries that need it.

And a fair bit more which in effect pretty much amounts to (as we have long suspected) increased federalism.
That'll be interesting to observe, given just how many Europeans actually want less integration with the EU.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-juncker-factbox/factbox-key-points-in-junckers-2017-annual-eu-address-idUKKCN1BO0YF?il=0

Arklight

Tromking wrote: »

I think he means he's trashed your world view and set in train a sequence of events that equates to a complete change in the political and economic direction of a country.
In short, he`s handed yer ar*e to you on a plate.:)

What 'complete change' is coming?

I am genuinely bemused as to what you people think is going to change for you. The levels of immigration won't change. There is no sign at all that the economy will shift away from banking, services, and outsourcing of traditional jobs.

You're much more likely to get a Jeremy Corbyn Labour government now, I guess.

That'll put a smile on your face.

(Also the only worldview I have had trashed is that before Brexit I didn't suspect that a slight majority of my countrymen were xenophobic twits, and now I suspect they might be.)

Moby

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/13/brexit-wont-solve-issues-that-led-to-leave-vote-says-mark-price-ex-trade-minister Even tory spokespeople are saying:- Mark Price, who quit a fortnight ago, says causes of discontent such as outsourcing and low wages would get worse with Brexit

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

There is indeed much speculation - at least we won't have long to wait before we see (maybe) why the delay, especially since the UK had previously asked for more negotiation.

Like many though, I'm not a great believer in coincidence.
Whilst Merkel may well spend the 25th trying to form a government, the election result will nonetheless indicate to EU negotiators the appropriate direction for continuing Brexit negotiations.

This delay in negotiations seems to be about the only thing the two sides have agreed on so far so, whatever it is, something is 'up'.

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Junckers' annual EU address demonstrates admirably how desperate the EU are regarding the effects of Brexit upon their beloved vision:
Which implies tragic for the EU, no?
Is this desire the result of various countries discussions with the UK perchance?
And a fair bit more which in effect pretty much amounts to (as we have long suspected) increased federalism.
That'll be interesting to observe, given just how many Europeans actually want less integration with the EU.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-juncker-factbox/factbox-key-points-in-junckers-2017-annual-eu-address-idUKKCN1BO0YF?il=0

At least by voting to leave the EU we won't be affected the outcomes of the above. As we gave up a chunk of influence I assume we're not that bothered what they do.

Theophile

Tromking wrote: »

I think he means he's trashed your world view and set in train a sequence of events that equates to a complete change in the political and economic direction of a country.
In short, he`s handed yer ar*e to you on a plate.:)

The ones who'll have their ar*es handed to them on a plate will be the so called 'disaffected' brexit voters. The irony.

Arklight

Moby wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/13/brexit-wont-solve-issues-that-led-to-leave-vote-says-mark-price-ex-trade-minister Even tory spokespeople are saying:- Mark Price, who quit a fortnight ago, says causes of discontent such as outsourcing and low wages would get worse with Brexit

I do get that when a lot of people voted against the EU, they were really voting against what they perceived as their own loss of stature in the world.

However, just like Trump in America there is no substance to this, 'movement' post victory.

The same people who rage about, 'taking back control' reliably have a Daily Mail meltdown as soon as they see a Labour policy to nationalise our rail and energy companies, and take them back from the Spanish, the Dutch and the Germans.

Or to introduce more anti-competition legislation into business practice, to stop British companies being gobbled up and shut by foreign acquisitions. This they think is communism.

They just appear to want to wave flags, but they can do that already.