Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

System

Conrad wrote: »

If you'd listened carefully many months ago we said Brexit was in part a cry of desperation from those at the bottom and how Brexit could help stem immigration and force farmers and others to pay more. Also said UK firms would have to start training yooof again.

The farmer in the article has given his Polish workers a pay rise. Brits still don't want to do farm work.

He's not going to be training the youth as a response to brexit either - he's moving way from labour intensive production.

Brexit isn't going to be a new dawn for those Brits who manage to leave an education system that most of the world can only dream of with no qualifications.

I suppose they could set up a craft brewery or an artisan cheese company.

Theophile

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

.................................
Again?
Okay.

Got it.
We can assess the economic impact of leaving the EU by quoting employment figures from a point in time when we're still in the EU and will still be in the EU for at least the next 18 months.
Yep, that makes sense. Thanks for the clarification.

Conrad

ilovehouses wrote: »

Brits still don't want to do farm work.

.

Ha, keep the standard clich!d sound bites coming.


It's so difficult to think of a way of getting British youth to do the jobs they happily did pre mass immigration, mmmm, better give up with this intractable problem........

System

Conrad wrote: »

Ha, keep the standard clich!d sound bites coming.

It's so difficult to think of a way of getting British youth to do the jobs they happily did pre mass immigration, mmmm, better give up with this intractable problem........

It's hardly a cliche. You don't want to work on a farm - why do you think masses of young people do? Farmers aren't known for their generosity - why do you think he's given his Polish guys a pay rise to keep them if the local youth are gathering at his gates forming an orderly queue to fill the jobs the Europeans have vacated?

Why would he be planning to move to low intensity crops given such a pool of enthusiastic labour. After all the young were 'happy' to be pulling sweetcorn pre-immigration weren't they.

Forget it. Get used to paying more for your food and seeing much less variety in home-grown crops.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Theophile wrote: »

Got it.
We can assess the immediate economic impact upon jobs of voting for leaving the EU by quoting employment figures from a point in time when we're still in the EU and will still be in the EU for at least the next 18 months.
Yep, that makes sense. Thanks for the clarification.

Corrected that for you in red above.
Still no answer to my earlier question then?

Theophile

ilovehouses wrote: »

The farmer in the article has given his Polish workers a pay rise. Brits still don't want to do farm work.

He's not going to be training the youth as a response to brexit either - he's moving way from labour intensive production.

Another option for him would be to move production to the mainland entirely.... as some are doing already.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/uk-farmers-poland-farms-business-brexit-leave-eu-eastern-europe-union-migrant-workers-a7860456.html

For 70 years, Tim Chambers’ family has harvested fruit in south-east England, but after Britain’s vote last year to leave the European Union he expanded into Poland and is ready to sell some of his land if a shortage of migrant workers worsens.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Theophile wrote: »

Another option for him would be to move production to the mainland entirely.... as some are doing already.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/uk-farmers-poland-farms-business-brexit-leave-eu-eastern-europe-union-migrant-workers-a7860456.html

I guess you didn't read the original article?
It seems that employer already deals with Germany, Spain, Morocco and Senegal.
If he moves completely it is unlikely that those British fields will be empty for very long.

System

Theophile wrote: »

Another option for him would be to move production to the mainland entirely.... as some are doing already.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/uk-farmers-poland-farms-business-brexit-leave-eu-eastern-europe-union-migrant-workers-a7860456.html

That's right. The UK's manufactures from agriculture is going to get blander.

If you like courgettes, sweetcorn, strawberries etc it's going to involve more of a search for home-grown and more money. It's why imports from the EU remain high post currency crash - there's little other choice.

I know some have high hopes that far flung places are just perfect for the bulk of our perishables but they'll be wrong about that.

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

If he moves completely it is unlikely that those British fields will be empty for very long.

They probably won't be empty at all. They'll be used for low labour intensity and commodity crops instead. The European sweetcorn picker is taking his job with him and will be picking my courgette in a Dutch greenhouse rather than the UK.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

They probably won't be empty at all. They'll be used for low labour intensity and commodity crops instead. The European sweetcorn picker is taking his job with him and will be picking my courgette in a Dutch greenhouse rather than the UK.

A 15% drop in labour availability will do that, will it?
Oh that poor farmer - but that's what happens if you don't move with the times.
Like any business, not just farming.

Peter Barfoot began with a smallholding in the 1970s and now farms more than 7,500 acres

Unless things change, Barfoots is planning next year to abandon labour-intensive crops such as broad beans that do not offer high enough profit margins.

Maybe the diversification which so many British farmers have been practising might instead be the answer?
http://www.countryfile.com/news/farming-diversification

http://www.fwi.co.uk/business/farm-income-from-diversification-on-the-up.htm

https://www.nfuonline.com/cross-sector/rural-affairs/planning-and-local-authorities/planning-news/how-agriculture-is-changing-the-importance-of-diversification/

And we won't even go into the effects of CAP.
Well, other than this:

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) hands out subsidies to European farmers, shielding them from healthy competition and hindering the evolution of modern, efficient agricultural methods.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/17/the-common-agricultural-policy-is-iniquitous-and-inefficient-now/