Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Brexit negotiations - the next round delayed by mutual agreement:

The next round of Brexit talks between has been postponed by a week to "allow more time for consultation".
The fourth round of UK-EU negotiations, due to begin on 18 September, will start on the 25th instead.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41246573

September 25th.
The day after German elections.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I guess you didn't read the original article?
It seems that employer already deals with Germany, Spain, Morocco and Senegal.
If he moves completely it is unlikely that those British fields will be empty for very long.

Yeah they'll be a luxury housing estate in no time.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Mate that sounds so under-grad.

This is another example of clunky linear thinking by Remainers and why you were susceptible to fear stories.

WHAT HAPPENED TO MASSIVE CITY JOB LOSSES, HRING IS BOOMING;

The City rebuffs Brexit recruitment worries with the number of jobs up by nearly a third in August


http://www.cityam.com/271798/city-rebuffs-brexit-recruitment-worries-number-jobs-up

Did you read the article or copy the headline?
Job ads are up a third from this time last year, when they dropped off a cliff. They are up 3% from last month which doesn't show a boom.

This rather bold section in the article is a lot more telling:

Since the result of the referendum became known last year, rather than a decline in hiring we have seen a shift in recruitment strategies.

In certain roles City employers are favouring contract professionals, ensuring that they have an agile workforce which can adapt to changing circumstances as Britain’s negotiations with Europe develop.

Sounds like they are playing very safe regarding employment. We hire contractors when we're expecting it to be short term or high risk.

CKhalvashi

Private_Church wrote: »

The EU regulations are more stringent and go way too far.As I said the UK Certification has worked for years even with all the new type of guns that come on the market and we don't have a problem of weapons being reactivated. Its imported weapons already deactivated by other EU countries that has been the issue. A UK company will import crates full of live firing WW2 Russian PPSH machine guns and carry out all the necessay work, send them to London or Birmingham proof house to be certificated so they comply with the UK legislation and we haven't had any issues with UK deacts being reactivated.

You may or may not remember around 18 months ago Kent Police raided a boat on the River Medway (iirc) and found Skorpion manchine pistols which had been deactivated in the Czech Republic and then reactivated on their way to the UK.

My fear is after we leave this type of legislation will be way,way down on the priority list of legislation to be amended.

I don't remember it although I don't live in Kent. Around that time I was beginning to take on various commitments and while I may have seen it at the time it doesn't register in my mind now.

In this situation (and I think sadly you've left it too late in reality) the best thing to do may have been to (and yes, it is CK saying this) write to Nigel Farage (or whoever the UKIP leader was then if NF had already handed in his annual resignation) and/or one of your UKIP MEPs, requesting they raise the situation in the European Parliament before the regulations were passed.

Guns aren't of any interest to me at all (I last fired one, under controlled circumstances, when I was about 12), however I know there are enthusiasts such as yourself and have no problem with that as long as common sense is exercised by both Parliament and firearm owners.

Herzlos wrote: »

Sounds like they are playing very safe regarding employment. We hire contractors when we're expecting it to be short term or high risk.

There are a lot more contractors in my line of interests too than previously.

I have received legal advice on the way any recruitment that may (or may not) be upcoming should be done re EU nationals and I have chosen to ignore the legal advice I've been given until there is clarity on the situation.

The issue is that it may be illegal to take that advice but at the same time may be expensive down the road if I don't. I'm unsure of how I'm going to proceed however the use of PAYE contractors (possibly to either shuffle around later on or later keep permanently) is definitely something that has come to mind taking into account the potential future legal situation.

Kohoutek

Conrad - is this a sign of success of Brexit in your view?

Global insurance giant Chubb Limited has announced that it plans to shift its European headquarters from London to Paris upon Britain's exit from the European Union, expected in March 2019.

Joseph Wayland, executive vice president and general counsel, said the company has received "assistance and cooperation" from the government in Paris "and we look forward to working closely with the French authorities as we move forward on this project."

"We are confident that locating our EU base in Paris will ensure that Chubb is well positioned to serve its clients whatever the ultimate terms of the UK's exit from the European Union."

Some large US banks already have signalled their plans to pick other headquarters cities, such as Dublin (Bank of America) and Frankfurt (Citigroup, Morgan Stanley).

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170912/insurance-giant-chubb-picks-paris-as-post-brexit-eu-headquarters

posh*spice

Brexit is going great. Migration numbers are decreasing, house price rises are flat lining... maybe sometime soon people will get a decent pay rise.

Plus boomers are getting old.

Soon Brits will have the standard of living that we enjoyed back in the day. BB = before Blur.

ukcarper

Kohoutek wrote: »

Conrad - is this a sign of success of Brexit in your view?



https://www.thelocal.fr/20170912/insurance-giant-chubb-picks-paris-as-post-brexit-eu-headquarters

posh*spice wrote: »

Brexit is going great. Migration numbers are decreasing, house price rises are flat lining... maybe sometime soon people will get a decent pay rise.

Plus boomers are getting old.

Soon Brits will have the standard of living that we enjoyed back in the day. BB = before Blur.

I think you should go back and look at how things were BB starting with NHS

fatbeetle

Brexit would go a lot better if we didn't have remoaners trying to do down and undermine the UK constantly.

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

A 15% drop in labour availability will do that, will it?
Oh that poor farmer - but that's what happens if you don't move with the times.
Like any business, not just farming.

We haven't left the EU yet and we're already seeing what the effects of a shortage of low-skilled labour can have. This is only one example and I posted it because it backs up my view that Brexit isn't going to be a renaissance for poorly qualified and low skilled Brits.

They just don't want to be doing this sort of work and they have the option not to. It's by design that the government allow them the luxury of this choice - maybe policy will change but Brexit itself won't change a thing.

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Maybe the diversification which so many British farmers have been practising might instead be the answer?

It depends what question you're trying to answer.

If I'm looking for UK produced sweetcorn, courgettes and strawberries a shortage of labour is going to make them more difficult to find. If the farmer has diversified i.e. moved away from farming and is running holiday lets, a solar farm, making llama hair jumpers etc then that's another reason we'll have to import more food.

A lot of the diversification is in the luxury end of the market but there's a limit to the number of craft breweries, basket makers, and the like so many fields will have to turned to low margin/ low labour commodities.

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

And we won't even go into the effects of CAP.
Well, other than this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/17/the-common-agricultural-policy-is-iniquitous-and-inefficient-now/

I agree with that to a large extent. The irony is I think we'll be buying more, rather than less, produce from the EU.

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Brexit negotiations - the next round delayed by mutual agreement:

Some speculation Mrs. May is going to make a big speech of some sort.

Personally I don't think we can afford the delays. The negotiate for a two days and brief the press for three days is getting silly.

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

September 25th.
The day after German elections.

Probably coincidental. You don't need much of a crystal ball to see that the most likely outcome will be that Merkel spends the 25th putting together a German coalition government.

If everything really is on hold whilst we await German elections then hopefully the 25th will see things speed up a bit.