Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

kabayiri

andrewf75 wrote: »

I don't follow your argument.
Of course demand for labour fluctuates, but my point is that whether people come under EU free movement to fill jobs or whether they come in under a post-Brexit points system will make little difference to overall numbers. Very few surplus people have come in from the EU. Its largely demand and supply.

It's just that we shop in a bigger labour pool, that's all.

The EU knows that no European state member can compete with cheaper parts of the world when it comes to labour cost or availability.

We have a long history of taking people from India for example, pre-dating our EU relationship.

Indian politicians are not stupid. They have been linking any future enhanced trade deal with greater freedom of access to our labour market. It makes obvious sense for such a populous country.

Fwiw, I believe in control systems, and supply and demand mechanisms are well known and have worked well for most of the globe's trading history.

kabayiri

setmefree2 wrote: »

...
So what? How does any of that solve the housing crisis? People don't want to build houses on golf courses - they want golf courses. They want countryside.
...

Plenty of golf courses in Scotland too. Thing is, the migrant workers don't head for Scotland in large numbers, so the demand for more houses there won't figure.

It seems pointless quoting UK wide figures for land use, when we all can pretty much guess where the future hot spots for housing will be.

London will grow by 20% population wise in a decade, and even within that one of the hotspots is Newham. The ONS know this.

It's funny how a people vote like Brexit might have more impact on UK living than any recent government initiative.

andrewf75

kabayiri wrote: »

It's just that we shop in a bigger labour pool, that's all.

The EU knows that no European state member can compete with cheaper parts of the world when it comes to labour cost or availability.

We have a long history of taking people from India for example, pre-dating our EU relationship.

Indian politicians are not stupid. They have been linking any future enhanced trade deal with greater freedom of access to our labour market. It makes obvious sense for such a populous country.

Fwiw, I believe in control systems, and supply and demand mechanisms are well known and have worked well for most of the globe's trading history.

So I'm not sure we really disagree
Immigration will continue at high levels, probably from somewhere like India instead of the EU

setmefree2

Evidence

Housing crisis: 6.6 million young Britons can't afford to leave home

INCREASING numbers of young adults are living with their parents as soaring property prices make it impossible for them to fly the nest.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/617361/Housing-crisis-young-Britons-afford-leave-home

My children are stuck at home. They can’t afford to become full adults

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/jun/10/children-stuck-home-full-adults-rented-flat-80s-clothes

25% of workers aged 20 to 34 can’t afford to leave parents’ home

Read more: http://metro.co.uk/2014/07/28/25-of-workers-aged-20-to-34-cant-afford-to-leave-parents-home-4813564/#ixzz4s6Y3JKbY

One in three young people are moving back home after being priced out of London rent

http://www.cityam.com/241574/one-in-three-young-people-are-moving-back-home-after-being-priced-out-of-london-rent

Still living at home? A third of the nation can’t afford to rent

https://www.financedigest.com/still-living-at-home-a-third-of-the-nation-cant-afford-to-rent.html

kabayiri

andrewf75 wrote: »

So I'm not sure we really disagree
Immigration will continue at high levels, probably from somewhere like India instead of the EU

I never had a problem with immigration levels, provided the country could manage the resources properly.

I just didn't like the way FOM was working when it came to the UK.

If the EU had standardized benefit levels and taxation of work, then it would definitely be less open to gaming.

I can even see the argument for an "Euro-worker", one whose costs for state support is picked up by the EU as a whole. Such a group of people would provide a very flexible labour resource who could move around as changing European demands dictated.

setmefree2

Originally Posted by andrewf75
So I'm not sure we really disagree
Immigration will continue at high levels, probably from somewhere like India instead of the EU

Where are you going to house them?

Or don't you care?

Just let them come....?

setmefree2

Corbyn facing rebellion over vote: Group of Labour MPs accuse leader of 'trying to scupper Brexit' by blocking vital new legislation

• The Labour leader was under fire after confirming he will order his MPs to oppose the EU Withdrawal Bill in a crunch Commons vote on Monday
• Thirty Labour MPs have met with shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer to raise concerns

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4863948/Corbyn-facing-rebellion-vote.html#ixzz4s6iKxQcb

Eurosceptic Labour MPs also reacted angrily to the decision.
Former minister Kate Hoey said her party appeared to be ‘trying to scupper Brexit’.
She told MPs: ‘This will be seen out there in the public by Labour voters - many Labour voters who came back to us having fraternised with Ukip for some time, came back and voted - as we are not really serious about leaving the European Union.’
Fellow Labour MP Graham Stringer also said he would be defying Mr Corbyn’s orders, saying the legislation was ‘absolutely fundamental to leaving the EU’.

Pro-Remain Tories also signalled they would rebel at a later stage unless the government introduced new safeguards.
Former Chancellor Kenneth Clarke, former Attorney General Dominic Grieve, and former ministers Nicky Morgan and Anna Soubry all raised major concerns.

I make that 4 Tory rebels.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

The NIESR sees the UK's economy picking up enough to warrant an interest rate rise early next year:

Britain’s Brexit-bound economy has picked up a bit of momentum and the Bank of England might raise interest rates in early 2018, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimated on Thursday.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-niesr/uk-economy-picking-up-rate-hike-possible-in-early-2018-niesr-idUKKCN1BJ1GH?il=0

setmefree2

The MPs, mostly from northern constituencies, confronted Shadow Brexit boss Sir Keir Starmer on Wednesday evening at a heated showdown over a three line whip imposed for the vote next week.

Labour whips are braced for an embarrassing rebellion on Monday evening, with one Labour MP claiming up to 50 backbenchers, many from the leave voting seats, could defy Mr Corbyn by abstaining.

Meanwhile while pro-remain MPs were tonight plotting to change party policy to keep Britain in the Single Market forever.
They are planning an ambush motion at the party’s conference later this month to have Labour support Freedom of Movement forever.
But former Minister Kate Hoey let rip as Starmer hinted the party may continue support continued unlimited EU immigration.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4415356/furious-labour-mps-accuse-jeremy-corbyn-of-taking-voters-for-fools-as-fresh-civil-war-erupts-over-brexit/

A_Medium_Size_Jock

An interesting survey showing how some of the EU members view their economy from June (bear with me here) :


https://www.thelocal.it/20170616/italians-lose-confidence-european-union

Following that on Italy's apparent dissatisfaction comes this today:

Italy's dual currency schemes may be long road to euro exit

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-euro-analysis/italys-dual-currency-schemes-may-be-long-road-to-euro-exit-idUKKCN1BJ208?il=0

If you don't think that at least possible, here's what the FT said on Tuesday together with an indicator of voting intent so far:
https://www.ft.com/content/aeadf292-9216-11e7-a9e6-11d2f0ebb7f0