Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

andrewf75

Conrad wrote: »

Not really, it's just a view. I might consider your position fairly extreme in it's effects and the fact it partly assumes we are too weak / silly / small / insignificant to manage as an independent nation trading with and being good neighbours of Europe.

I find it genuinely incredible that after more than a year on from the vote, you - clearly an intelligent guy - still can't understand the opposing view without assuming that the reason we think what we think is because of some lack of confidence!
Open your mind a bit. I don't think we are too anything to manage outside the single market, I simply think we will be stronger and more prosperous if we stay in it.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

andrewf75 wrote: »

I find it genuinely incredible that after more than a year on from the vote, you - clearly an intelligent guy - still can't understand the opposing view without assuming that the reason we think what we think is because of some lack of confidence!
Open your mind a bit. I don't think we are too anything to manage outside the single market, I simply think we will be stronger and more prosperous if we stay in it.

That's odd because after more than a year after the referendum I find it genuinely incredible that some who profess intelligence persist upon basing their beliefs in a future post-Brexit Britain on no more than hearsay.
Perhaps Conrad just takes the intelligent option of basing his opinion upon facts and statistics rather than supposition and forecasts?

Conrad

andrewf75 wrote: »

Open your mind a bit. I don't think we are too anything to manage outside the single market, I simply think we will be stronger and more prosperous if we stay in it.

What makes you feel we cant trade with it on more or less as good trading terms, say a Canada + type deal?

Filo25

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

That's odd because after more than a year after the referendum I find it genuinely incredible that some who profess intelligence persist upon basing their beliefs in a future post-Brexit Britain on no more than hearsay.
Perhaps Conrad just takes the intelligent option of basing his opinion upon facts and statistics rather than supposition and forecasts?

The problem of course is, (like all of us) Conrad is being pretty selective in which facts and statistics he is highlighting, only those which support the case that all is well in the land as Brexit approaches, its hardly unusual we're all guilty of fitting data and arguments to whatever our core beliefs are.

andrewf75

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

That's odd because after more than a year after the referendum I find it genuinely incredible that some who profess intelligence persist upon basing their beliefs in a future post-Brexit Britain on no more than hearsay.
Perhaps Conrad just takes the intelligent option of basing his opinion upon facts and statistics rather than supposition and forecasts?

Maybe I have underestimated him, I wasn't aware he had facts about how the future is going to pan out. There was me thinking we were all speculating.

andrewf75

Conrad wrote: »

What makes you feel we cant trade with it on more or less as good trading terms, say a Canada + type deal?

I'm sure we could get a deal like that eventually, but as a European country with an economy deeply linked to the EU I feel we would benefit from closer integration than that.
I have no ideological desire to be restricted in what trade deals we make or to be subject to EU regulations over our own, I simply think overall in the bigger picture those are prices worth paying.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Filo25 wrote: »

Grasping at straws a bit there, the polling evidence on that one was pretty clear, well outside the margin of error in multiple polls

I'm not saying it in a demeaning way, its not a surprising correlation, people with lower education attainment probably have a rather different experience with the economy of modern day Britain than those with higher attainment, its easy to understand why they may feel they have less to lose from rolling the dice on Brexit than those who may be doing a bit better on average.

In any case my post was saying more a comment on voting in Oxford and Cambridge, its not up for debate that both showed large Remain majorities.

Another contradiction in terms.
You can have a "polling suggestion" but not strictly-speaking polling evidence. You could at least make some attempt at understanding the difference between a sample as used when polling and demographic statistics; as said before, those asked questions in polls have a tendency not to be perfectly honest.
As such the grasper of straws judging by reliance upon such polls is yourself and terminology such as "probably" just does not cut it when attempting your correlations of educational attainment vs voting pattern.

For example Durham, Southampton, Birmingham, Nottingham and Sheffield - all top UK university cities - voted to leave the EU.
And that's not an exclusive list BTW.

As such your comment on Oxford and Cambridge still bears no factual correlation to educational attainment despite your suggestion, any more than the opposite applying in my university cities examples above.

Filo25 wrote: »

The problem of course is, (like all of us) Conrad is being pretty selective in which facts and statistics he is highlighting, only those which support the case that all is well in the land as Brexit approaches, its hardly unusual we're all guilty of fitting data and arguments to whatever our core beliefs are.

Nice soundbite though that may be, that is not strictly speaking true is it?
Because using evidence and statistics since the referendum there is absolutely no evidence so far supporting the assertion from some that the UK will be worse off as a result of leaving the EU.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

andrewf75 wrote: »

Maybe I have underestimated him, I wasn't aware he had facts about how the future is going to pan out. There was me thinking we were all speculating.

You're pontificating.
There are facts so far upon which to base beliefs; read the thread.
Manufacturing & exports up.
Universities thriving.
Inward investment thriving.
Etc. etc. etc.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

What makes you feel we cant trade with it on more or less as good trading terms, say a Canada + type deal?

Because we need services, and that we can't get away with brass plating?

I think we'll get something closer to the Norway deal.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Another contradiction in terms.
You can have a "polling suggestion" but not strictly-speaking polling evidence. You could at least make some attempt at understanding the difference between a sample as used when polling and demographic statistics; as said before, those asked questions in polls have a tendency not to be perfectly honest.
As such the grasper of straws judging by reliance upon such polls is yourself and terminology such as "probably" just does not cut it when attempting your correlations of educational attainment vs voting pattern.

For example Durham, Southampton, Birmingham, Nottingham and Sheffield - all top UK university cities - voted to leave the EU.
And that's not an exclusive list BTW.

As such your comment on Oxford and Cambridge still bears no factual correlation to educational attainment despite your suggestion, any more than the opposite applying in my university cities examples above.


Nice soundbite though that may be, that is not strictly speaking true is it?
Because using evidence and statistics since the referendum there is absolutely no evidence so far supporting the assertion from some that the UK will be worse off as a result of leaving the EU.

So you're willing to discredit the polls you claim were proof the majority supports brexit?