Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

If the British Government are to create a "seasonal worker visa" it should be remembered that there is a good possibility of an EU worker returning home at the end of the contract.
What chance that someone from a part of the world where five dollars a day is a good wage wanting to return home after earning the British minimum wage for six months?
Britain might solve one problem only to create another. Interestingly they would not be able to "escape" across the Channel as they will have no travel papers and entering the EU from Britain will in future be less easy than it is today.

Markets adjust naturally to whatever the conditions are.

No cheap labour.

Business reverts back to a pick your own model.

gfplux

I have just mistakenly posted this in the UK election thread as it had drifted into Brexit territory and I had forgotten which thread I was reading.
My apologies.


Guesses, Just like the value of trade and profit it will cost Company's who trade with Britain.
While I might consider Brexit a car crash for Britain, the analogy is completely wrong. A car crash happens in seconds.
"Brexit" as a business (PROFIT) threat is already 12 months old. By the time we reach March 2019 the "Brexit PROFIT threat" will be nearly three years old.
Any shareholder will be entitled to ask "you have had long enough to mitigate this threat why is my dividend reduced" in fact any CEO and the board will already have take action to mitigate any threat to profits and by 2019 would be expected to be reporting only slight turbulence due to sales to Britain being harmed.
While no CEO wants to be ordering a change of course this complex and difficult they are taking action as they have no choice.
They and the board will not keep their jobs if they fall at the fence called "Brexit PROFIT threat"
Those in business will know this to be true. Those who rely on the underlying funds of their present or future pensions that are invested in the large European Company's will not except reduced profits.

So all this talk of Company's trembling at the thought of the "Brexit profit threat" leaning heavily on their political connections to cut a good deal for their sector is just talk.
The real work is in the contingency plans being implemented NOW.

That's how business works.

cogito

gfplux wrote: »

I have just mistakenly posted this in the UK election thread as it had drifted into Brexit territory and I had forgotten which thread I was reading.
My apologies.


Guesses, Just like the value of trade and profit it will cost Company's who trade with Britain.
While I might consider Brexit a car crash for Britain, the analogy is completely wrong. A car crash happens in seconds.
"Brexit" as a business (PROFIT) threat is already 12 months old. By the time we reach March 2019 the "Brexit PROFIT threat" will be nearly three years old.
Any shareholder will be entitled to ask "you have had long enough to mitigate this threat why is my dividend reduced" in fact any CEO and the board will already have take action to mitigate any threat to profits and by 2019 would be expected to be reporting only slight turbulence due to sales to Britain being harmed.
While no CEO wants to be ordering a change of course this complex and difficult they are taking action as they have no choice.
They and the board will not keep their jobs if they fall at the fence called "Brexit PROFIT threat"
Those in business will know this to be true. Those who rely on the underlying funds of their present or future pensions that are invested in the large European Company's will not except reduced profits.

So all this talk of Company's trembling at the thought of the "Brexit profit threat" leaning heavily on their political connections to cut a good deal for their sector is just talk.
The real work is in the contingency plans being implemented NOW.

That's how business works.

Not often we agree on things, gfp, but this is spot on. It's basic risk management. It is also a good reason why brexit is unlikely to be the disaster that many remainers like to think.

Conrad

gfplux wrote: »

I have just mistakenly posted this in the UK election thread as it had drifted into Brexit territory and I had forgotten which thread I was reading.
My apologies.


Guesses, Just like the value of trade and profit it will cost Company's who trade with Britain.
While I might consider Brexit a car crash for Britain, the analogy is completely wrong. A car crash happens in seconds.
"Brexit" as a business (PROFIT) threat is already 12 months old. By the time we reach March 2019 the "Brexit PROFIT threat" will be nearly three years old.
Any shareholder will be entitled to ask "you have had long enough to mitigate this threat why is my dividend reduced" in fact any CEO and the board will already have take action to mitigate any threat to profits and by 2019 would be expected to be reporting only slight turbulence due to sales to Britain being harmed.
While no CEO wants to be ordering a change of course this complex and difficult they are taking action as they have no choice.
They and the board will not keep their jobs if they fall at the fence called "Brexit PROFIT threat"
Those in business will know this to be true. Those who rely on the underlying funds of their present or future pensions that are invested in the large European Company's will not except reduced profits.

So all this talk of Company's trembling at the thought of the "Brexit profit threat" leaning heavily on their political connections to cut a good deal for their sector is just talk.
The real work is in the contingency plans being implemented NOW.

That's how business works.

None the less as these reports keep showing, EU business sectors are voicing great concern and urging for a no harm Brexit trade deal.

Not just for profits as you mention but also to avoid unecessary redundancies as this weeks Deloitte Germany report concludes.

On top of this you have national Govts such as the Dutch also releasing reports stating a no harm deal is in everyone's interest, as for example 9% of Dutch exports are UK bound.

Herzlos

No harm deal is obviously what everyone wants, but you need to bear in mind that if there are any compromises on the EU side, what's good for us will be a secondary (at best) consideration.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

No harm deal is obviously what everyone wants, but you need to bear in mind that if there are any compromises on the EU side, what's good for us will be a secondary (at best) consideration.

And what's bad for us is bad for Dutch and Spanish workers involved in selling to us.

One way or another trade will not be meaningfully hampered, my number one claim since this whole debate began.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

And what's bad for us is bad for Dutch and Spanish workers involved in selling to us.

One way or another trade will not be meaningfully hampered, my number one claim since this whole debate began.

I entirely agree on both points. I always have.

But my money is that all the concessions to get to that will come from the UK side, and that pretty much everyone will be unhappy with the result.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

But my money is that all the concessions to get to that will come from the UK side, and that pretty much everyone will be unhappy with the result.

Might as well roll over and let our tummy's be tickled then. If that were the case there would be a huge swell of resentment.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Might as well roll over and let our tummy's be tickled then. If that were the case there would be a huge swell of resentment.

Rolling over is pretty much all our Brexit team are capable of. It took them less than 3 hours to do a 360 spin on policy yesterday.

I agree there will be a huge amount of resentment from pretty much everywhere.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

Rolling over is pretty much all our Brexit team are capable of. It took them less than 3 hours to do a 360 spin on policy yesterday.

Far better to have a forward looking positive outlook. Than be pessimistically negative. Don't think for one moment that the EU is unified. As time passes there'll be public spats. Enough already that are simmering away on a number of topics. Migrant crisis in Italy being one that's hitting boiling point.