Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

mayonnaise

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Meanwhile, back in the real world....

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/27/uk-banks-ordered-to-hold-more-capital-as-consumer-debt-surges

Cash-strapped Britons slapping it all on the plastic.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Meanwhile, back in the real world....

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/27/uk-banks-ordered-to-hold-more-capital-as-consumer-debt-surges

Back in the real world indeed, from your linked source:

Lending conditions in the mortgage market are becoming easier.

Ah, more mortgages approved then = more houses sold = house prices continue to rise.
Just like I said in http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=72761022&postcount=598

Carney said the decision to call on banks to hold more capital – which is largely a rejig of their current resources rather than raising new funds – was taken after domestic risks returned to “standard” levels. A year ago, after the Brexit vote, the Bank had relaxed regulatory requirements on banks – using new tools it was given after the financial crisis – and is now reversing that decision.

So the risk has dropped.
And again: "if you're worried about finances you don't spend on high-ticket electronics unless you have to."
Poor Hamish, what with Scotland denouncing the SNP so loudly too you're really not having the best of times lately are you?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

StevieJ wrote: »

This doesn't doesn't seem to me to be in the democratic spirit of the EU 'out vote ' From what I can gather the driving force behind the leave vote was immigration. I don't think the electorate meant stop the Spanish and Poles coming here and lets have more Asians and Africans. I could be wrong though.

No, if anything what the electorate decided was to stop more coming here.
Do you refuse to make that distinction?

I really don't think most people care whether their cabbage-picker is Lithuanian or Bangladeshi TBH; do you?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't think I missed that some batch of workers are already here. But we're talking about seasonal work.

I had no idea that replacing outward migrants with new inward migrants didn't count as immigration. So this whole thing about reducing immigration is a net thing and not an absolute thing? Because that'd *almost* make sense, but is never how I've seen it described.

Will these replacement migrants not count towards the tallys? Will they still need to apply for VISAs? Will they still actually want to come?

Why are you distorting what I said?

See the post above, particularly;

I really don't think most people care whether their cabbage-picker is Lithuanian or Bangladeshi TBH; do you? Today 11:49 AM

As for how immigration is calculated, those leaving the UK are subtracted from those arriving to arrive at a net immigration figure if that is surplus OR a net migration figure if more leave.
Simple really.
See: https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/95

If you really want to know about the regulatory side feel free to do your own research.

Herzlos

I agree that people don't care where their foreigners are coming from. But we're talking about Brexit which by definition will only affect migrants from the EU. If anything, it means we'll be encouraged to take more migrants from elsewhere as part of the trade deals.

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

No, if anything what the electorate decided was to stop more coming here.
Do you refuse to make that distinction?

I don't think anyone talking about migration has made that distinction.

But we can't take anything from the referrendum result, beyond the question asked. It was probably about reducing immigration, but it could have just as easily been about dissatisfaction with the establishment.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

This was Corbyn's plan pre-GE:

Labour is considering letting thousands of unskilled migrants into the country after Brexit if it wins the General Election.

The unskilled labourers would have to apply for a visa, which would be similar to the US green card scheme, according to the document that was leaked yesterday.

http://metro.co.uk/2017/05/31/labour-plans-to-let-in-thousands-of-unskilled-migrants-after-brexit-6674766/

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't think anyone talking about migration has made that distinction.

This from OpenEurope pre-referendum explains what the thoughts on immigration were then:

"Perhaps the greatest failing of the immigration system is that it discriminates against precisely the sort of people who, in a world of increasing labour mobility, we might actually want to attract." Douglas Carswell, The Times, 24 February 2015

To sum up, our findings are broadly consistent with the liberal Eurosceptic case for withdrawal as set out by the likes of Carswell.

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/what-would-brexit-mean-for-immigration/

Thrugelmir

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

It strikes me that the so-called "cash-strapped Britons" are not really so cash-strapped as some seem to think.

Hitting big ticket items such as furniture (DFS) and home furnishings (Carpetright).

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

But we can't take anything from the referrendum result, beyond the question asked. It was probably about reducing immigration, but it could have just as easily been about dissatisfaction with the establishment.

Controlling immigration is a necessity. Last year the UK population increased by a City the size of Bradford. Simply unsustainable in the longer term. For a whole variety of reasons.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Hitting big ticket items such as furniture (DFS) and home furnishings (Carpetright).

At least it's not Brighthouse :beer:

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Hitting big ticket items such as furniture (DFS) and home furnishings (Carpetright).

That seems to be true in those cases.
But I wonder if it's possibly not just a backlash against their dire continual advertising?
Or like Debenhams would seem to be, just tired and increasingly outdated stores failing to compete in an increasingly competitive and increasingly online marketplace, much like M&S who were struggling recently.

It has always been the case that some companies struggle while some see strong growth, even within similar markets.
For example John Lewis is still seeing at least modest increase: http://www.johnlewispartnership.co.uk/content/cws/financials/weekly-figures/latest.html

Since current figures from the CBI show an increase in retail I think it unwise at this early stage to depend upon the poor results/forecasts of a few for evidence that big ticket item sales are falling.