Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

gfplux

ilovehouses wrote: »

I'm employed in the food and drink industry but don't have any special insight. I'm involved in the manufacture of goods in the UK, Europe and the Far-East.

The UK food and drink industry has been a beneficiary of free movement and performed well. I think (but not sure) it was a sector that didn't go into recession during the GFC.

For imports I think there will be some substitution but not that much (you don't swap a March Spanish tomato with a stored English apple) so, in the main, those imports will continue from somewhere. Gut feel is they'll come from pretty much the same place due to existing relationships and proximity.

For home produced food it's much more problematic as a quarter of employees are from the EU. Anything less than free movement will be inflationary. If we end up on WTO terms with the EU then our exports will be a lot less competitive.

I expect higher food and drink prices and a shrinking UK food and drink sector. Possibly quite profound.

That has to be taken in the round though. It maybe that Brexit overall is positive for the UK economy. I don't think that but many seem convinced and I hope they're proved correct.

Thank you. You probably know more about the food industry than any other poster.
I welcome all your contributions

A_Medium_Size_Jock

CKhalvashi wrote: »

So, maybe Jock can confirm (after he's apologised for what he said at the end of April (click here) and admitted I was right, which to the best of my knowledge he still hasn't done, despite being reminded several times) how long he's held these views.

I believe it was around the time of the referendum, as a way to counter the Leave voters who are racist (although admittedly Jock isn't), however IMO for the reasons highlighted by yourself it may be false concern to prove a point.



Not quite 35, however I've gone from hoping to go around 50-55 to not knowing when I'll be doing anything yet, or indeed where I'll be.

Around here, several people in their 40s are now starting to worry about what they've done, including two people I've spoken to who work for Ryanair and therefore were told of the implications long before the referendum. It's too late to suddenly realise what the single market does for us though unfortunately.

Unlike some here I am quite happy to admit when I am wrong, as indeed I was in my belief that we would not end up with a hung parliament.
But how was I to know then that Corbyn would bribe millions of our younger generation?
Are you unique in being infallible, CK?
Then let's see you prove where you do this as you say above: "despite being reminded several times"?

Apart from the "dig" at me, were you trying to ask something because it really is not very clear what that would be?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

He didn't sound very convinced. Sounded like he thinks they've got to be prepared to walk away to get a good deal, and that he's hoping we won't. But he's gone from us being guaranteed a good deal, to being "pretty sure" we'll get a good deal.

No matter what was said, to some he will never be right.
Had he said definitively "we will ...... " no doubt you would instead be asking how he could be so sure.

gfplux

Where will the British Government publish their position on EU /BRIT Citizen rights after Maybot makes it's statement to Parliament this afternoon.

CKhalvashi

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Unlike some here I am quite happy to admit when I am wrong, as indeed I was in my belief that we would not end up with a hung parliament.
But how was I to know then that Corbyn would bribe millions of our younger generation?
Are you unique in being infallible, CK?
If not let's see you prove where you do this as you say above: "despite being reminded several times"?

Here you go

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Btw, where are the leave voters who told me I'm wrong? Not so wrong now, am I? :rotfl:

CKhalvashi wrote: »

When Conrad and Jock get on:

When I said the Cons would lose their majority 6 weeks ago, you laughed at me.

I bet you're not laughing now :beer:

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Conrad and Jock, I'm still waiting for the apology from you, with an admission that you were wrong

Anyway, back to now

Apart from the "dig" at me, were you trying to ask something because it really is not very clear what that would be?

Yes. When did you first feel sorry for African farmers?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

The French wanting help from other EU members to deal with congregating migrants and Calais wishing to increase tourism from the UK aren't mutually exclusive.

I never said it was.
Now instead of attempting self-aggrandizement perhaps you will answer the question; "why is Calais doing all it can to encourage a return for UK tourism?"

Perhaps somewhat facetiously (since that seems to be a trend here ATM) the answer is that France do indeed want the UK to do more .... and tourists provide more vehicles for these migrants to hop aboard, take number plates off, etc.?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4637294/Migrant-gang-targets-British-grandparents-driving.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/20/van-driver-dies-migrants-block-calais-road-tree-trunks/

A_Medium_Size_Jock

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Here you go







Anyway, back to now



Yes. When did you first feel sorry for African farmers?

Nice quotes but links please?
And not one is asking me specifically, is it?
Or did I miss that?
So you have not in fact "reminded me" specifically, have you?
You have reminded an entire thread.


"When did you first feel sorry for African farmers?"
Living in South Africa at a younger age, just before my teens.
Next?

CKhalvashi

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Nice quotes but links please?
And not one is asking me specifically, is it?

"When did you first feel sorry for African farmers?"
Living in South Africa at a younger age, just before my teens.
Next?

Ok, fair enough . I didn't know you'd lived in SA, so that does explain that one.

How did we know May would bribe the DUP with £1.5bn in the event she didn't win a majority? I don't pay my taxes to fund a Tory spending spree to prop up a weak and wobbly government, led by an incompetent Prime Minister who promised if she lost 5 seats it would be Jeremy Corbyn leading the country.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Ok, fair enough . I didn't know you'd lived in SA, so that does explain that one.

How did we know May would bribe the DUP with £1.5bn in the event she didn't win a majority? I don't pay my taxes to fund a Tory spending spree to prop up a weak and wobbly government, led by an incompetent Prime Minister who promised if she lost 5 seats it would be Jeremy Corbyn leading the country.

Nr Cape Town, 3 years - by early teens we sang "Silent Night" at Christmas in four languages. Kinda puts UK insular attitudes into perspective, that.

Strangely enough, I don't pay my taxes so that Fred may become Wilma ............. or to pay for a new bridge in Romania, come to that.
But we don't get to choose where our money goes and that's just how democracy works.
One party got more seats than the other and so get the chance to form a government.
Things might go the way you want next time - if enough agree with you.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

In a new poll (and don't blame me for who commissioned the poll) the number wanting Brexit has increased from 52% to 60%, with (obviously) those wanting to remain in the EU decreasing from 48% to 40%:

Last year 48 per cent voted to remain in the EU, however in our poll just 40 per cent wanted to stay in the bloc.
In a tumultuous year for politics after the historic referendum, the electorate now just want Brexit to progress.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/821177/Brexit-Express-poll-EU-referendum-one-year-Article-50