Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Rusty_Shackleton

bobbymotors wrote: »

Utter nonsense, as usual.

There will be a satisfactory trade deal. By satisfactory, if the EU want us to pay tariffs in order to export to them, and we reciprocate, we will be getting more in tariffs than we pay out.

That's the worst case 'walk away' deal: and it's pretty satisfactory to me thank you.

But there will be a better deal than that.

If youre fine with that situation, then say so, its a perfectly valid position to hold. But there is a difference between being okay with tariffs and pretending German car makers, french vineyards etc. are going to help us much, if at all, to secure any trade deal that imposes any downside to the single market. Especially since the EU and its industries dont think the EU is being difficult, or trying to punish the UK.... Because theyre not. We're in a mess of our own making.

Its funny, I think a lot of hardcore brexiters honestly believed the EU would be generous with a trade deal, because they actually think the EU is in trouble economically, and other countries would be eager to leave. Once that fell through, we just look like trouble the EU doesnt need.

bobbymotors

yes, because I very much doubt it will come to that...but if it does, well, we will be in front so that's fine with me.

there will be a satisfactory deal.

anyway, the people have spoken; get over it, there won't be another referendum.

Thrugelmir

But German industrialists have reiterated that retaining the integrity of the single market is their goal. “Defending the single market, a key European project, must be the priority for the European Union,” Dieter Kempf, president of the German Federation of Industries lobby group which represents around 100,000 companies

JCB resigned from the CBI as didn't agree with the "official" line taken. You wonder how many of these 100,000 companies were actually consulted before this statement was made.

kabayiri

bobbymotors wrote: »

...
anyway, the people have spoken; get over it, there won't be another referendum.

A referendum on what though?

What would we go back to?

I can't see it being a Back To The Future thing, where the last 18 months are wiped from history.

The EU27 won't trust us now. They might have good reason. Equally, we can see their true centrist narrative coming through.

We'd be going back to a diminished role with an expectation of us paying more as well.

CKhalvashi

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Terrible word order.

I never learned German, and I don't speak it on a daily basis. I take it that you understood what I meant though

ukcarper

bobbymotors wrote: »

yes, because I very much doubt it will come to that...but if it does, well, we will be in front so that's fine with me.

there will be a satisfactory deal.

anyway, the people have spoken; get over it, there won't be another referendum.

Although I wish we Hadn't vote to leave we have and are, so we will have to wait and see what happens.

Thrugelmir

bobbymotors wrote: »

There will be a satisfactory trade deal. By satisfactory, if the EU want us to pay tariffs in order to export to them, and we reciprocate, we will be getting more in tariffs than we pay out.

All those car parts that are imported, exported and reimported. A shambles possibly even a nightmare.

bobbymotors

ukcarper wrote: »

Although I wish we Hadn't vote to leave we have and are, so we will have to wait and see what happens.

precisely. I was a very marginal brexiteer...but the thing has been voted on, we're leaving let's get on with it.

Rusty_Shackleton

bobbymotors wrote: »

yes, because I very much doubt it will come to that...but if it does, well, we will be in front so that's fine with me.

there will be a satisfactory deal.

anyway, the people have spoken; get over it, there won't be another referendum.

As a point of curiosity, do you think referendums are a good idea in our representative democracy? Does the division the last one caused seem worth it because you 'won'?

Whats your prize? The illusion of regaining sovereignty (cant get back what you never lost)? Freedom from those standards that we'll still follow but have no say whatsoever in? Maybe you just really wanted some delicious chlorinated chicken? Enjoy the victory while it lasts, we'll be back in the EU soon enough, less a rebate and having lost political capital in the EU while other countries grew up and realised their actual place in the world by losing wars, the UK will do so returning to the EU, tail between legs having spent billions to accomplish F all!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

bobbymotors wrote: »

if the EU want us to pay tariffs in order to export to them, and we reciprocate, we will be getting more in tariffs than we pay out.

That's the worst case 'walk away' deal: and it's pretty satisfactory to me thank you.

Well given your seeming lack of understanding on these topics, it's a good thing that 'you' are not the person who has to be satisfied then...

Tariffs on exports and imports of goods have never been the problem - they're essentially an irrelevancy to many sectors (agriculture being a huge exception though, with up to 40% tariffs on some products) - but for the economy as a whole it's the non-tariff barriers that will cause the real long term damage.

And all this focus on 'goods' is also unhelpful - we export far more in 'services' to the EU than we import from them - and services are 80% of the British economy.