Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Conrad

ilovehouses wrote: »

Why is 8.6% of our output modest but the same number when applied to Dutch exports is massive?

No, no, to be clear 8.6% of our economic output is traded with EU and of that 8.6% of trade, the modified UK-EU trade deal will make no meaningful difference to our overall prosperity, indeed I will argue we will trade more with the EU after than Brexit for all sorts of complex reasons.

Conrad

always_sunny wrote: »

(It's not that "indecisive EU bureaucrats have no more idea how to deal with departing Britain" it's perhaps that the EU bureaucrats are happy to see Britain go its own way.)

That's it, whatever the EU boys do is good and well considered, whatever we do is bad and ill conceived. Pessimism 101.

Conrad

ilovehouses wrote: »

If they're so cunning why did they call a general election and throw their majority down the toilet?

I mean the British State, it's Diplomats, Envoys, back-room dealers and boffins as a whole together with current Govt are engaged in classic British careful and un-flashy manoeuvring. When the British appear quiet and indecisive even eccentric, we're at our best.


Remoaners have nothing whatsoever to fear.

always_sunny

Conrad wrote: »

That's it, whatever the EU boys do is good and well considered, whatever we do is bad and ill conceived. Pessimism 101.

There is not even a hint of pessimism. There are two parties (the UK and the EU) and they want to run things in different ways.

The UK wants the EU to work in ways the EU does not want to and the EU is willing to the take brunt for it.
If the EU wants to proceed and have 2 phases to the negotiation at move at a glacial pace, can't they do as they want?
The UK may not like it, fair enough, find someone that want to move at your pace.

There's no pessimism, realism perhaps, you sound like a toddler throwing toys out of the pram.

CKhalvashi

http://www.bento.de/politik/edeka-raeumt-seine-regale-leer-und-setzt-ein-zeichen-gegen-rassismus-1615405/#refsponi

Anyone that can sprechen eine schöne sprache may find this interesting.

For anyone who can't speak a beautiful language, a German supermarket removed everything that wasn't domestic from their shelves.

This is potentially what we're letting ourselves in for guys.

Rusty_Shackleton

bobbymotors wrote: »

We import more from the EU than we export to them: ergo, thy havefar more to lose.
...
Do you think the Germans want a £1000 per car import tariff om every BMW, VW, Audi and mercedes that is sold here? Not likely!
...
The EU can bluster all they like, they have more to lose than we do, Fact.

:rotfl: wrong.

It doesn't matter that we import more than we export to the EU. What matters is that each of the rEU exports more to the EU than to the UK. The damage of damaging their trade with the UK is far less important than the integrity of the single market.

Funny you mention German car makers, they already had their say:
http://www.politico.eu/article/german-industry-to-uk-we-wont-undermine-single-market-over-brexit/

There will be some sort of trade deal, but you'd be naive to think little old Britain would be a priority over the single market for any EU country.

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

(It's not that "indecisive EU bureaucrats have no more idea how to deal with departing Britain" it's perhaps that the EU bureaucrats are happy to see Britain go its own way.)

No one seems to want to pay for the UK's lack of contribution to the club.....;)

A major issue. Certainly for Barnier. As his hands are tied totally behind his back. Meanwhile with the shackles off. The UK moves forward. The EU cannot play the ransom game forever. As the time is ticking away and the UK is leaving.

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

for example the 9% of Dutch exports UK bound.

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

And what percentage of Dutch exports go to rEU?

I always wondered where those other 91% went...

qwert_yuiop

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Anyone that can sprechen eine schöne sprache may find this interesting.

Terrible word order.

bobbymotors

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

:rotfl: wrong.

It doesn't matter that we import more than we export to the EU. What matters is that each of the rEU exports more to the EU than to the UK. The damage of damaging their trade with the UK is far less important than the integrity of the single market.

Funny you mention German car makers, they already had their say:
http://www.politico.eu/article/german-industry-to-uk-we-wont-undermine-single-market-over-brexit/

There will be some sort of trade deal, but you'd be naive to think little old Britain would be a priority over the single market for any EU country.

Utter nonsense, as usual.

There will be a satisfactory trade deal. By satisfactory, if the EU want us to pay tariffs in order to export to them, and we reciprocate, we will be getting more in tariffs than we pay out.

That's the worst case 'walk away' deal: and it's pretty satisfactory to me thank you.

But there will be a better deal than that.