Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

cogito

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

Agriculture will be the most obvious first casualty of this idea. How do you think farmers will feel when the sector is decimated by cheap food imports? Do you think it's acceptable for our national security and stability to have such a crucial sector damaged like that?

We import lots of food either because we can't grow enough of it ourselves or because our climate is unsuitable. Cocoa from West Africa for example where the EU charges high tariffs. How would that hurt our agriculture?

cogito

ilovehouses wrote: »

The path from referendum to Davis' first day at negotiations wasn't exactly what I'd call conducive to being fully prepared to say the least. In fact, I suggest it's more reasonable to suggest they were underprepared than prepared.

Hopefully the government have used the August holidays wisely to save their further embarrassment.

Just because you didn't hear about it doesn't mean it wasn't happening. For all the EU's propaganda about us being underprepared, there have been other reports from Brussels expressing surprise at how well prepared we actually were.

Rusty_Shackleton

Conrad wrote: »

Classic paint-by-numbers small vision logic from a Remainer. We can do any number of things to boost our farming sector as the Kiwis & Aussies found out.

Remainers fatalistic hopeless linear thinking is so un-British

As an aside I thought you Remoaners were terrified by historically modest inflation rate so would welcome cheaper food?

Where do we stand in with WTO rules if we unilaterally eliminate import tariffs on food but then introduce non-trade barriers to protect domestic producers? Are we protected from retaliation by trade partners just because it's a unilateral move?

At any rate, I thought brexiters hated farm subsidies?

I would personally like to see food bills go down. Am I happy to throw farmers under the bus to get it? No. Even though many of them would be getting what they voted for? Funny enough, no, I don't like the idea of anyone's livelihood being destroyed.

qwert_yuiop

cogito wrote: »

We import lots of food either because we can't grow enough of it ourselves or because our climate is unsuitable. Cocoa from West Africa for example where the EU charges high tariffs. How would that hurt our agriculture?

Argentinian and Brazilian beef. New Zealand lamb.

We've a very stable climate. Just a bit cool for Citrus fruit and cocoa beans.

Conrad

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

Their losses as a group to the UK are spread thinly, while the UK is looking at 44% of our exports. We have the weaker hand.

You are utterly wrong on this as you will see and I hope have the grace to acknowledge quite soon.


No way will for example Holland put in jeopardy the 9% of it's exports that are UK-bound IN ADDITIONAN to having to make up the lost £9bn pa UK club fee and face a trade war if they force us to go nuclear on things like importing Chinese electronics for car production making us more competitive.


I have plenty links of this sort of thing, here's only a few;



Flemish Minister President insisted that EU will need trade deal-plus that will privilege UK biz
http://www.politico.eu/article/flanders-fabrics-face-brexit-backlash/


Belgian biz is looking for closest possible trade ties with the UK after the country quits the free trade bloc

http://deredactie.be/cm/vrtnieuws.english/News/1.2879376#


Deloitte’s German unit study - 'hit to German carmakers from a “no-deal”, will be traumatic' ERGO GOOD UK DEAL


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/22/europe-waking-impact-hard-brexit/


"We shouldn't forget that 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on the trade with the United Kingdom",


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39522265


Combustion engine ban puts 600,000 German jobs at risk:


http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-germany-emissions-idUKKBN1A319I



DUTCH PARLIAMENT


'Any restriction on free trade with UK would be at the cost of Dutch prosperity and jobs'


http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-netherlands-idUKKBN16S17A?il=0

Conrad

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

Where do we stand in with WTO rules if we unilaterally eliminate import tariffs on food but then introduce non-trade barriers to protect domestic producers? Are we protected from retaliation by trade partners just because it's a unilateral move?

At any rate, I thought brexiters hated farm subsidies?

I would personally like to see food bills go down. Am I happy to throw farmers under the bus to get it? No. Even though many of them would be getting what they voted for? Funny enough, no, I don't like the idea of anyone's livelihood being destroyed.

See there you go again, problems is all you see whereas Brexiteers see issues to be resolved, adaptation, innovation and opportunity.


Your whole outlook is that of those that urged Churchill to surrender to the German will and do a deal rather than innovate and fight and shape destiny


Try a can-do approach, try recognising the vast opportunity ahead of us and stop being so woefully down about a very modest change to the way we trade 8.6% of our economic output

Conrad

ilovehouses wrote: »

It wasn't so long ago the idea that the outward ineptness might be a ruse to lull the EU into a false sense of security.

.

Read your history, this is classic British cunning, it astounds me you cant see this

Rusty_Shackleton

Conrad wrote: »

See there you go again, problems is all you see whereas Brexiteers see issues to be resolved, adaptation, innovation and opportunity.

Your whole outlook is that of those that urged Churchill to surrender to the German will and do a deal rather than innovate and fight and shape destiny

Try a can-do approach, try recognising the vast opportunity ahead of us and stop being so woefully down about a very modest change to the way we trade 8.6% of our economic output

Would those be the same issues to be resolved that you saw with the EU? Where was your willingness to adapt and innovate to make things better? The hardcore brexiters have been moaning for 40 years, and yet you have the nerve to type that rubbish?!

A brexiter using a war analogy and trying to invoke the spirit of Churchill to further their own political cause, there's something new! I sometimes wonder if Farage stands in front of a mirror.. "Winston Churchill... Winston Churchill... Winston Churchill"

Why didn't brexiters try a can-do approach, recognising the opportunities of the single market? You bang on about trading with the rest of the world, but many EU countries trade a lot more with non-EU countries than we do... nothing stopping us!

Also a lot of our economic output involves cross channel supply chains.

I half expect brexiters to break into song... "always look on the bright side of life"... It'd be funny if it the economy and our society werent quite serious subjects.

always_sunny

setmefree2 wrote: »

And it is becoming clear that the lumbering, indecisive EU bureaucrats have no more idea how to deal with departing Britain than it has of solving the problem of mass illegal immigration.....

There we go, when the argument of trade deals no longer stirs the crowd, back to the EU and the mass illegal immigration.
It's one or the other.

(It's not that "indecisive EU bureaucrats have no more idea how to deal with departing Britain" it's perhaps that the EU bureaucrats are happy to see Britain go its own way.)

bobbymotors

The simple fact of the matter is that there WILL be a satisfactory trade deal.

We import more from the EU than we export to them: ergo, thy havefar more to lose.

Do you think the Germans want a £1000 per car import tariff om every BMW, VW, Audi and mercedes that is sold here? Not likely! Do you think the french want a £1 a bottle import tariff on every bottle of wine? Do you think the spanish want a £1 a box tariff on all the tomatoes, lettuce, cuumbers, courgettes etc they send here?

Of course they don't it would be madness.

A deal will be done, on satisfactory terms. It can be no other way.

The EU can bluster all they like, they have more to lose than we do, Fact.