Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Rusty_Shackleton

GreatApe wrote: »

Do we agree that the vast majority of functional persons or household in the UK can have a good productive life? I would argue even people who do not work and live off benefits can have such a good productive life as I know functional families who are on benefits and they are good decent people who have decent lives

I agree they can in terms of, there nothing about any individual that makes them incapable of doing so. I don't believe this country currently has enough opportunity available to provide to all that want it. People caring for family members, unpaid, and similar situations are of course productive, but if that stops them earning money and they have nobody else to provide for them, a decent life is going to be very hard to come by.

Rusty_Shackleton

Arklight wrote: »

Really? Reaaaalllly Great Ape?
I am not saying I am calling BS on this but are you really telling me that a mature man, who hasn't even started his training course yet, and in fact only has your book, enticing him with the riches of plumbing has managed to secure not one but two offers of employment?

Competing as he is, in a field where plumbing companies are almost awash with eager wannabe apprentices, who actually have completed plumbing exams under their belts and a willingness to work for nothing and do exactly as they are told?

Well, if he has that kind of ingenuity maybe he should be setting his sights even higher.

Just to add to your point about availability of actual on the job training for trades like plumbing and electricians. As many plumbers and electricians are self employed, they're often very reluctant to take on an apprentice who is likely to become a competitor once they're trained up. Happy to take on their own kids, family members etc.

That's why actual company's in the sector can't provide enough training places, even though there's a shortage of the skills.

We really are a tremendously self-centred country!

setmefree2

Links to Policy papers.

1)NI and Republic
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/northern-ireland-and-ireland-a-position-paper

2)Customs Union
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/future-customs-arrangements-a-future-partnership-paper

Rinoa

GreatApe wrote: »

An increasing population is no bad thing and is almost irrelevant if it is migrants or women had more kids 20 years ago if anything kids cost more than migrants

If the bin man is not a drain to society, which he isn't, more or less the same applies to all the low paid jobs like nurses teaching assistants etc etc

The migrants on low wage jobs pay low or even no taxes, but they push dozens of people above them up the pay and skill scales so that marginal improvement in a dozen people above them should be accounted to them.

I know you dont quite understand this and wont accept it and I know I am not going to change your mind or convince you to think it through for the many hours it would take to click so we are at an impasse.

Maybe consider the opposite, a uk with no migrants and with 10% of families at the bottom.
Cull those 10% what happens, well you have a new 10% at the bottom as those jobs like bin men have to be filled. Cull the new 10%, well you now have a new 10% at the bottom as those jobs like bin men have to be filled. Keep doing it until the uk is just 5 million people. Guess what we are a husk of our former country and people are no richer than before there is still a bottom 10% doing the !!!! jobs low status jobs low pay jobs and you still think they are a drain to your uk of 5 million people. A few years back this bottom 10% was in the top 20% before you started your cycle of culling the lowest paid who are a 'drain' to taxes....supposedly

You're suggesting that all those UK born workers who did the menial low paid jobs 10-12 years ago, before millions of migrants came, are now highly paid technicians, doctors, magagement consultants etc.

This is clearly not the case. We just have loads more unskilled workers available for low paid jobs. This doesn't make us richer.

GreatApe

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

It also includes the salaries of premiership footballers, what's your point?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/nesscontent/dvc126/index.html

Your 30-35k salary being easy to achieve with hard work is complete bull. Half of taxpayers earn less than £21k (2012-13 figure). Not an exact comparison, but lets say that's half of jobs: that means you've got to be above average to earn above 21k... that's quite a way off from your £35k idea. That's across all age groups as well, so under represents younger people who have less opportunity, what with the declining number of decent jobs. To say you can 'easily' earn £35k is absurd.

look at the map I posted, its april 2015 so add about 5% to the figures for April 2017

For example for Birmingham, median full time male wages are £30,784 add 5% to that to update it to this year and you get a little over £32,300 so half of men in Birmingham working full time earn more than that and half earn less than that

Anyone else want to weigh in on this? It feels like I'm debating the existence of gravity or that the Earth isn't flat.

Wages in the uk are high, there is also a huge amount of non wage income in the uk. For instance the vast sums of gifted and inherited wealth

setmefree2

Salmon sales surge as UK food exports hit record high

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40963631

cogito

GreatApe wrote: »

you cant hedge currency indefinitely, if anything I would say companies shouldn't be doing that apart from very short term to fix costs which is more or less what they do. if you are a car company you are not a currency hedging company. If you or the car company has so much skill and insight into currency they should become a currency house

Also imagine a company did have a lot of skill and hedged the currency, well they can take that profit on day one of the currency movements and their actual costs of producing goods and services for export or buying for import are the costs that day at that days currency value

Think of it as buying insurance. A small company does so because it can't withstand big losses. Motor manufacturers don't need to buy conventional insurance because can withstand multi- million pound losses and they are often bigger than the insurance companies they would buy cover from. I never knew a small company trading in currencies other than sterling (importing from Cina but paying in $ for example) that didn't buy forward - obviously to protect known contracts.

GreatApe

Rinoa wrote: »

You're suggesting that all those UK born workers who did the menial low paid jobs 10-12 years ago, before millions of migrants came, are now highly paid technicians, doctors, magagement consultants etc.

This is clearly not the case. We just have loads more unskilled workers available for low paid jobs. This doesn't make us richer.

No what I am suggesting is that many people were bumped up a little bit

So John might have been a shelf stacker in tesco, but since we imported a lot of migrants john is a team leader of 5 shelf stackers in tesco

Jim might have been a refuse collector but since we imported a lot of migrants Jim is the driver for the refuse lorry

Jack might have been a head of year teacher, but since we imported a lot of migrants we have a need for more doctors and have more medical places so Jack instead become a doctor

Jill might have been a social care worker on the min wage going door to door helping the old, instead Jill might be a nuse today earning a little more


This is indisputable, if the migrants take the low paid low skill work and unemployment is still virtually zero, which it is, then the migrants pushed the locals up the skill and pay scales. Of course the refuse collector did not become a brain surgeon but he was bumped up a tiny but so where dozens in the chain

GreatApe

cogito wrote: »

Think of it as buying insurance. A small company does so because it can't withstand big losses. Motor manufacturers don't need to buy conventional insurance because can withstand multi- million pound losses and they are often bigger than the insurance companies they would buy cover from. I never knew a small company trading in currencies other than sterling (importing from Cina but paying in $ for example) that didn't buy forward - obviously to protect known contracts.

currency hedging doesn't change the fundamental cost structure of a business

For instance I used to work for a steel exporter that hedged a huge bet in 2008 on sterling, in late 2008 sterling crashed and that ment they made a £300 million profit on their hedge

In 2009 they still closed the business and took the £300 million hedge

The hedge is a simple bet on currency not on fixing business costs for anything other than the very short terms

setmefree2

UK exports to the EU surge on weaker pound

Britain’s factories benefited from a surge in sales to the EU in the first half of this year as export growth outstripped import growth. The UK still imports far more than it exports leaving the country with a goods deficit amounting to €53bn (£48bn) for the six months to June in its trade with the EU, but that is down from €57.8bn in the same period of 2016.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/17/uk-exports-eu-surge-weaker-pound/