Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

always_sunny

setmefree2 wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/17/uk-exports-eu-surge-weaker-pound/

So if you're cheap the EU will buy it from the UK, if you're expensive they will not.
(BTW - tourism apparently is following the same fate)

setmefree2

UK tourism sector booms as sterling falls

The latest data from Forward Keys, which monitors flight bookings, suggests international arrivals to the UK will be 9% higher for August to October this year compared to the same period of 2016.

Bookings from China are up 20%, and those from the US are 23% higher, the data suggest.
There aren't just more tourists, they're also spending more when they're in the UK.
VisitBritain predicts tourists' spending will surge by 14% this year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40972840

Arklight

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

It also includes the salaries of premiership footballers, what's your point?

Your 30-35k salary being easy to achieve with hard work is complete bull. Half of taxpayers earn less than £21k (2012-13 figure). Not an exact comparison, but lets say that's half of jobs: that means you've got to be above average to earn above 21k... that's quite a way off from your £35k idea. That's across all age groups as well, so under represents younger people who have less opportunity, what with the declining number of decent jobs. To say you can 'easily' earn £35k is absurd.

Anyone else want to weigh in on this? It feels like I'm debating the existence of gravity or that the Earth isn't flat.

I think if any of this was going to resonate with him it would have by now.


For anyone interested in actual facts about UK average incomes, then the ONS data shows that the median pay for full time employment is £27,645


The mean is £33,689.


http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160106013433/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-400803


It's difficult to find much about modal pay but:

• In 2010, around 3½ million employees aged 22 to retirement were paid less than £7 per hour. Two-thirds were women and one-third were men.

Women are more likely to be low paid than men.

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

So if you're cheap the EU will buy it from the UK, if you're expensive they will not.
(BTW - tourism apparently is following the same fate)

Only if you produce or manufacture something people want to buy. Exchange rates will obviously influence where people decide to holiday. As budgets are limited. If you get more for your € and therefore offers good value the UK would be attractive. Correspondingly Eire has suffered a decline in tourism so far this year.

setmefree2

Britain receives record number of foreign visitors in second quarter 2017

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain received a record number of foreign visitors in the second quarter of 2017, and the number of Britons making trips abroad reached an all-time high for the time of year, official figures showed on Friday.
Some 10.75 million foreigners visited Britain for tourism or other purposes between April and June, 8 percent more than during 2016 and the most for any calendar quarter since records began in 1980, the Office for National Statistics said.

There was a 20 percent increase in tourism

Overall, visitors to Britain spent 6.23 billion pounds ($8.03 billion) in the three months to June, 8 percent more than in 2016,

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-tourism-idUKKCN1AY0US

cogito

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

Tthe fact remains if we had the lowest unemployment since the 70's there would be wage inflation - instead wages are decreasing in real terms.

It really isn't that simple. If it was, wages would have decreased in the 1980s when unemployment trebled. The opposite happened and wages continued to rise. In fact, the first time wages decreased in real terms since 1948 was in 2011 despite unemployment figures fluctuating greatly in intervening years. There are many different forces at play that affect wages.

So your fact doesn't remain. It isn't a fact at all.

setmefree2

EU migrants barred from claiming benefits after Brexit as Theresa May revives David Cameron pledge

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/17/eu-migrants-barred-claiming-benefits-brexit-theresa-may-revives/

GreatApe

Arklight wrote: »

Really? Reaaaalllly Great Ape?

I am not saying I am calling BS on this but are you really telling me that a mature man, who hasn't even started his training course yet, and in fact only has your book, enticing him with the riches of plumbing has managed to secure not one but two offers of employment?

I wouldn't call him a mature man he is 28 years old so more a young adult and yes that is what he told me excitedly.

Competing as he is, in a field where plumbing companies are almost awash with eager wannabe apprentices, who actually have completed plumbing exams under their belts and a willingness to work for nothing and do exactly as they are told?

I suspect he will also have to put in some unpaid work. Although he can probably do a lot of general maintenance tasks before he becomes a fully qualified plumber.

Well, if he has that kind of ingenuity maybe he should be setting his sights even higher.

He is very conscientious it shows clearly but he isn't very high IQ so many jobs requiring a higher IQ would be difficult for him. I thought hard about offering him a job that will pay £30,000 - £35,000 but I feel being a plumber would be better for him longer term so I held off especially since the job I had in mind would be 50-55 hours a week and reasonably physically demanding. If he isn't able to make it as a plumber I will offer him that role in a couple of years time I cant think of anyone else who would do it better (apart from the current person who is doing it but they will retire in 2-3 years time and I would want at least a 4-6 month overlap)

Thrugelmir

Internalisation of the labour market has been underway for some time now. We are now in a different era. Comparisons to the 70's and 80's for the UK in isolation have no meaning.

Arklight

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

I agree they can in terms of, there nothing about any individual that makes them incapable of doing so. I don't believe this country currently has enough opportunity available to provide to all that want it. People caring for family members, unpaid, and similar situations are of course productive, but if that stops them earning money and they have nobody else to provide for them, a decent life is going to be very hard to come by.

The majority of people in the world accept that life is unequal and just get on as best they can.


On average, if a young person in the UK wants to know what their own financial status will be the best predictor they can employ is to look at their parents.


Apparently even the government are aware that:

Britain has a deep social mobility problem which is getting worse for an entire generation of young people, the Social Mobility Commission’s State of the Nation 2016 report warns today.
The impact is not just felt by the poorest in society but is also holding back whole tranches of middle- as well as low-income families - these treadmill families are running harder and harder, but are standing still.
The problem is not just social division, but a widening geographical divide between the big cities - London especially - and too many towns and counties across the country are being left behind economically and hollowed out socially.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/state-of-the-nation-report-on-social-mobility-in-great-britain


You might think there would be social unrest considering many young people know that it doesn't matter how hard they work or smart they are, their smartness and work hours will not be valued at the same level as the privileged few.


Yet they just get on with it for the most part. Yet there seems to be some kind of pathological need in the febrile Right to point at people doing perfectly ordinary jobs on average salaries and deride them as, "losers".